View Poll Results: Long term demographics

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  • Democratic party becomes much stronger, current platforms remain largely unchanged

    8 27.59%
  • Republican party adopts platform changes to appeal to new demographics, balance is maintained

    8 27.59%
  • republican party changes platform to appeal to new groups, republicans become more dominant

    4 13.79%
  • republican party loses popularity and another party (libertarians?) begins to take hold

    3 10.34%
  • republican party loses popularity and splits conservative votes with another party

    1 3.45%
  • democrats become too diverse (big tent) and split into smaller parties

    2 6.90%
  • other

    8 27.59%
  • goshinabega

    2 6.90%
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Thread: Long term demographics

  1. #11
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Anagram View Post
    I expect the Republican Party to eventually adapt. As the number of social conservatives shrink, the less necessary it will be to appeal to them to turn out the base. I think this will eventually lead to whiter blue states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota to trend Republican. I also think its possible for there to be some Republican resurgence in the Northeast in the future as New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine get wealthier and the controversial social issues get downplayed. There will be more Republicans in the same vein as Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Judd Gregg, and Chris Shays.

    At the same time I expect the Democrats will create a stranglehold in the Southwest. California, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and eventually Texas will become blue states in the coming decades. The other area becoming slowly more Democratic is the coastal South, where Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are becoming more diverse and sympathetic to Democrats.

    By 2040-2050 I expect we could see an electoral map look something like this:

    Attachment 67136211
    Sorry your map is wrong Wiscsonin, Minnesota and Iowa are blue now and blue then. These states have progressive roots and midwestern common sense. I also think considering the strenght of unions in Ohio it will remain blue.
    Georgia is never going to be blue. Its in thier blood. nor is south carolina it goes against their nature.

    Beyond that it looks ok.
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  2. #12
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    Re: Long term demographics

    I think once Hispanic voters figure out that the Democratic party,
    is the party of victims and economic slavery,
    They will find another party closer to their values.
    If the Republicans are not up to receiving them with open arms, some other party will.

  3. #13
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfman24 View Post
    Sorry your map is wrong Wiscsonin, Minnesota and Iowa are blue now and blue then. These states have progressive roots and midwestern common sense. I also think considering the strenght of unions in Ohio it will remain blue.
    Georgia is never going to be blue. Its in thier blood. nor is south carolina it goes against their nature.

    Beyond that it looks ok.
    I disagree. Before 2008 and Obama's huge win Minnesota and Wisconsin were trending redder. Iowa even went red in 2004. Ohio is already slightly more Republican than the national average.

    Georgia and South Carolina on the other hand, are reversing long term trends and becoming more diverse, experiencing the same population growth that made Virginia and North Carolina vote Democrat in 2008. It'll take longer for them, but if the trends continue, Democrats should be competitive there in a few cycles.
    There should be Instant Runoff Voting

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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by longview View Post
    I think once Hispanic voters figure out that the Democratic party,
    is the party of victims and economic slavery,
    They will find another party closer to their values.
    If the Republicans are not up to receiving them with open arms, some other party will.
    I don't go for the partisan rhetoric but that's mostly accurate.

    Hispanics, etc. will become wealthier as they become more established in this country and wonder why so much of their hard earned income is being redistributed to the poor.

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    Re: Long term demographics

    One of the big fallacies you hear coming out of the left is that somehow long term demographics favor them.

    As someone who has lived in South America for many years, I can tell you unequivocally that latinos are no more likely to vote for the left than they are for the right.

    Actually, they're a lot more like the WASPS that vote Republican than you'd like to see.

    The only reason more latinos vote democrat today is because many of them haven't made their way up the social ladder yet. As they integrate to American society and become wealthier and more established, I think the Democrats will be unpleasantly surprised to know that Latin Americans are going to abandon them in droves.

    Latinos have right-wing DNA. They are generally religious, conservative, and believe in the value of hard work.

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    Latinos Part of Demographic Shift That Will Define Politics | Fox News Latino

    One of the stories that people are finally beginning to notice is the implication of long term demographic shifts in the US. From my personal view point, the older culture of the US is dying out and is being replaced by a new culture that is more diverse and the recent political fights are largely a result of people realizing that the older ways of live and increasingly becoming less popular due to these shifts.

    In terms of political parties, what do you think is likely to happen?

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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    Latinos Part of Demographic Shift That Will Define Politics | Fox News Latino

    One of the stories that people are finally beginning to notice is the implication of long term demographic shifts in the US. From my personal view point, the older culture of the US is dying out and is being replaced by a new culture that is more diverse and the recent political fights are largely a result of people realizing that the older ways of live and increasingly becoming less popular due to these shifts.

    In terms of political parties, what do you think is likely to happen?
    I think if you are a party that appeals to old white guys you will be in trouble.
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    One of the big fallacies you hear coming out of the left is that somehow long term demographics favor them.

    As someone who has lived in South America for many years, I can tell you unequivocally that latinos are no more likely to vote for the left than they are for the right.

    Actually, they're a lot more like the WASPS that vote Republican than you'd like to see.

    The only reason more latinos vote democrat today is because many of them haven't made their way up the social ladder yet. As they integrate to American society and become wealthier and more established, I think the Democrats will be unpleasantly surprised to know that Latin Americans are going to abandon them in droves.

    Latinos have right-wing DNA. They are generally religious, conservative, and believe in the value of hard work.
    I remember reading something showing that even wealthy latinos support the Democratic party overwhelmingly, though not by as much as the poorer Latin Americans. I think it has to do with how the parties are perceived. Ignoring whether its true or not, the Democratic party is perceived as the party of minorities by a lot of the country.
    There should be Instant Runoff Voting

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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    One of the big fallacies you hear coming out of the left is that somehow long term demographics favor them.

    As someone who has lived in South America for many years, I can tell you unequivocally that latinos are no more likely to vote for the left than they are for the right.

    Actually, they're a lot more like the WASPS that vote Republican than you'd like to see.

    The only reason more latinos vote democrat today is because many of them haven't made their way up the social ladder yet. As they integrate to American society and become wealthier and more established, I think the Democrats will be unpleasantly surprised to know that Latin Americans are going to abandon them in droves.

    Latinos have right-wing DNA. They are generally religious, conservative, and believe in the value of hard work.
    The fallacy stems from the belief that Hispanics vote Democrat because Republicans are racist.

    The reality is Hispanics vote Democrat because they cater to the poor; which most first generation Hispanics are.

    Hispanics will become more financially secure as they become established and the idea of voting for their race will be seen as silly as an Irish-American voting one party because he is Irish-American.

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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Anagram View Post
    I remember reading something showing that even wealthy latinos support the Democratic party overwhelmingly, though not by as much as the poorer Latin Americans. I think it has to do with how the parties are perceived. Ignoring whether its true or not, the Democratic party is perceived as the party of minorities by a lot of the country.
    There is a lot of that where I live and it is mostly because even wealthy Hispanics are relatively new to this country themselves.

  10. #20
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Donahue View Post
    I don't go for the partisan rhetoric but that's mostly accurate.

    Hispanics, etc. will become wealthier as they become more established in this country and wonder why so much of their hard earned income is being redistributed to the poor.
    Ok maybe the rhetoric was a bit harsh.
    I just see the current Democratic party, as the party of less personal freedom.
    I think most Hispanics tend towards conservative views of Family and values.

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