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Poll bias

Where did all the biased polls go?

  • They never existed in the first place, it was just excuse making from whiney people

    Votes: 3 23.1%

  • They are still there, Romney is beloved by all, darn media! (except fox)

    Votes: 2 15.4%

  • Polls suck and never work right!

    Votes: 3 23.1%

  • Rootabega

    Votes: 6 46.2%
  • Total voters
    13
wolfman24 said:
All I can tell you is that I saw it on PBS about a week ago and then heard in again on CBS news. They reported their information came from the "census bureau". MSNBC has also been stating this but not identifying thier source.
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I worked as an enumerator for the 2010 census and can insure you that the Census bureau does not track party identification. People are paranoid enough about being interviewed by the government without delving into their voter registration.
There are 22 states that do not record party registration and most of those are in the south and west where the GOP is dominant. Any conjecture about the ratio of dems to reps is just that....a guess.
 
Anagram said:
To be honest, that seems like a prudent change.
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Does the fact that the change was made shortly after Gallup was sued by the Justice Department seem a little suspicious to you?
 
megaprogman said:
So now that Romney is doing better in polling, where did all the claims of poll rigging go?
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The rigged polls are still there. Today's Washington Post/ABC poll showing Obama up by 3 oversampled dems by 9.
 
jerry7 said:
The rigged polls are still there. Today's Washington Post/ABC poll showing Obama up by 3 oversampled dems by 9.
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Good pollsters don't weight by Party ID.
 
jerry7 said:
Does the fact that the change was made shortly after Gallup was sued by the Justice Department seem a little suspicious to you?
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Not the best time to change your methodology, but I think it's actually a good move, so if it helps the accuracy of their polling it is better now than never.
 
megaprogman said:
So now that Romney is doing better in polling, where did all the claims of poll rigging go?
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You obviously haven't listened to the talking heads' full theory! After the fact, the claim was that they knew this would happen: the polls had to align to reality with just weeks left before the election. Or they would lose their credibility.

I grimace while doing it, but I listen to Hannity & Levin once a week to stay on top of these nuts.
 
Anagram said:
To be honest, that seems like a prudent change.
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Not according to the Obama campaign. lol
***************************************************************************************************************************
Mitt Romney has opened a 5-percentage-point lead over President Obama in the 12 battleground states that are critical to determining the outcome of the 2012 election, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday
The Obama campaign quickly disputed the poll's findings. It circulated a memo from pollster Joel Benenson calling the USA Today/Gallup poll “an extreme outlier” that defies “the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll.”
Poll: Romney surges ahead of Obama in the dozen swing states - The Hill's Ballot Box

The memo pointed to past Gallup surveys that deviated from the final outcome, and said the current results underscore “deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen.”
 
jerry7 said:
Not according to the Obama campaign. lol
***************************************************************************************************************************
Mitt Romney has opened a 5-percentage-point lead over President Obama in the 12 battleground states that are critical to determining the outcome of the 2012 election, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday
The Obama campaign quickly disputed the poll's findings. It circulated a memo from pollster Joel Benenson calling the USA Today/Gallup poll “an extreme outlier” that defies “the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll.”
Poll: Romney surges ahead of Obama in the dozen swing states - The Hill's Ballot Box

The memo pointed to past Gallup surveys that deviated from the final outcome, and said the current results underscore “deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen.”
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Well of course not. Neither side is going to admit they are losing. I do hate those swing state polls though. National polls and state polls are useful, but multiple state polls really aren't.
 
Gallup was one of the worst polls in 2008. They had Obama +11 on night before the election. LOL
 
duhu said:
Gallup was one of the worst polls in 2008. They had Obama +11 on night before the election. LOL
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You can't measure a pollster's credibility with one poll.
 
Anagram said:
You can't measure a pollster's credibility with one poll.
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Yeah but that's a fairly large outlier, and it's not as though they were that great in 2004 either. There were middle of the pack there, and I prefer to use polls that have been accurate to recent history.

Also you need to be careful with polls that jump around so much.
 
duhu said:
Yeah but that's a fairly large outlier, and it's not as though they were that great in 2004 either. There were middle of the pack there, and I prefer to use polls that have been accurate to recent history.

Also you need to be careful with polls that jump around so much.
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Two polls isn't enough either, since their polls have a margin of error is +/- 2%. Really there isn't a way to judge Gallup like some of the other pollsters because they only poll the national race. The only way to judge them is by looking at their methodology, which in my opinion is solid.
 
Anagram said:
Two polls isn't enough either, since their polls have a margin of error is +/- 2%. Really there isn't a way to judge Gallup like some of the other pollsters because they only poll the national race. The only way to judge them is by looking at their methodology, which in my opinion is solid.
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For a poll that claims to have a margin of error of 2%, they were off by 4 in 2008 and 3 in 2004.
 
duhu said:
For a poll that claims to have a margin of error of 2%, they were off by 4 in 2008 and 3 in 2004.
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+/- 2%. Which means it could be off by as many as 4 points with a 95% confidence interval. They were off by a bit more than 3% in 2008 and a bit over 2% in 2004 which is not terribly unlikely for a poll with a margin of error of +/- 2%.
 
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