View Poll Results: Which of these scenarios is more likely for the 2012 presidential election?

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  • Romney wins the popular vote, but loses the electoral college

    12 80.00%
  • Neither candidate gets the 270 electoral votes necessary to win; House determines the President

    3 20.00%
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Thread: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

  1. #1
    User duhu's Avatar
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    Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    Mitt Romney wins the popular vote (RCP has him up 1.3 as of now) and loses the electoral vote, OR neither candidate achieves the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to win? Here's the electoral college right now, according primarily to RCP, with "undecided" states (56) being within 1 - 2 points: 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

    Going by this, which seems like an accurate assessment based on history, as of right now it's Obama- 247 to Romney- 235. This means that, assuming there are no faithless electors, Obama would need 22 of 56 available electoral votes. This is only possible if Obama ONLY wins Ohio (18) + New Hampshire (4), OR if Obama wins ONLY Virginia (13) + Colorado (9). Ohio, Virginia, and NH have Obama +1 or less, Colorado is +1 for Romney. Of those remaining, Nevada and Iowa also lean Obama at around +1, 2ish.

    So which is more likely, in your humble opinion?
    "Nobody spends somebody else's money as carefully as he spends his own. Nobody uses somebody else's resources as carefully as he uses his own. So if you want efficiency and effectiveness, if you want knowledge to be properly utilized, you have to do it through the means of private property."

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    Re: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    Barring any totally boneheaded action by either candidate, I see Romney slowly cutting any leads Obama has...especially in the "too close to call" States. Whether he cuts in far enough to win...I don't know. Just have to wait and see.

    That's my humble opinion and I'm sticking to it.
    TANSTAAFL

    “An armed society is a polite society.”
    ― Robert A. Heinlein, Beyond This Horizon

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    User duhu's Avatar
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    Re: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
    Barring any totally boneheaded action by either candidate, I see Romney slowly cutting any leads Obama has...especially in the "too close to call" States. Whether he cuts in far enough to win...I don't know. Just have to wait and see.

    That's my humble opinion and I'm sticking to it.
    I'm not asking that. I'm asking which of the two rarest scenarios in presidential election history, is more likely for this election.
    "Nobody spends somebody else's money as carefully as he spends his own. Nobody uses somebody else's resources as carefully as he uses his own. So if you want efficiency and effectiveness, if you want knowledge to be properly utilized, you have to do it through the means of private property."

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    Re: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    Quote Originally Posted by duhu View Post
    I'm not asking that. I'm asking which of the two rarest scenarios in presidential election history, is more likely for this election.
    shrug...

    Don't know. Probably neither.
    TANSTAAFL

    “An armed society is a polite society.”
    ― Robert A. Heinlein, Beyond This Horizon

  5. #5
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    Re: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    By pure statistical probability, Romney becomes the 5th example of winning the popular vote but loses the electoral vote.

    Nevertheless I do not see it reaching that level.
    Michael J Petrilli-"Is School Choice Enough?"-A response to the recent timidity of American conservatives toward education reform. https://nationalaffairs.com/publicat...-choice-enough

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    Re: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    Probably Romney winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college. If all RCP's averages held up right now that would be the case. There really aren't many viable tie scenarios, so I doubt that'll happen.
    There should be Instant Runoff Voting

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    User Anrch-Cptlst's Avatar
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    Re: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    I'm hoping neither candidate will win lol
    Gary Johnson 2012!!!

    There is all the difference in the world between treating people equally and attempting to make them equal. - F.A. Hayek

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    Re: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    I think there is a good possibility that Obama will win the popular vote but lose the electoral.

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    Re: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    Again this is a skewed poll. There are two people running not one.
    "Those who do not learn from history and condemned to relive it".

    "There are those who will debate the necessity of wilderness, I will not, either you know it in your bones or you are very very old". Aldo Leopold - Sand County Almanac

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    Re: Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfman24 View Post
    Again this is a skewed poll. There are two people running not one.
    What in the world are you talking about?
    "Nobody spends somebody else's money as carefully as he spends his own. Nobody uses somebody else's resources as carefully as he uses his own. So if you want efficiency and effectiveness, if you want knowledge to be properly utilized, you have to do it through the means of private property."

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