Which of these is the more likely scenario for the 2012 election?

Mitt Romney wins the popular vote (RCP has him up 1.3 as of now) and loses the electoral vote, OR neither candidate achieves the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to win? Here's the electoral college right now, according primarily to RCP, with "undecided" states (56) being within 1 - 2 points: 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

Going by this, which seems like an accurate assessment based on history, as of right now it's Obama- 247 to Romney- 235. This means that, assuming there are no faithless electors, Obama would need 22 of 56 available electoral votes. This is only possible if Obama ONLY wins Ohio (18) + New Hampshire (4), OR if Obama wins ONLY Virginia (13) + Colorado (9). Ohio, Virginia, and NH have Obama +1 or less, Colorado is +1 for Romney. Of those remaining, Nevada and Iowa also lean Obama at around +1, 2ish.

So which is more likely, in your humble opinion?

Barring any totally boneheaded action by either candidate, I see Romney slowly cutting any leads Obama has...especially in the "too close to call" States. Whether he cuts in far enough to win...I don't know. Just have to wait and see.

That's my humble opinion and I'm sticking to it.

Mycroft said:

Barring any totally boneheaded action by either candidate, I see Romney slowly cutting any leads Obama has...especially in the "too close to call" States. Whether he cuts in far enough to win...I don't know. Just have to wait and see.

That's my humble opinion and I'm sticking to it.

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I'm not asking that. I'm asking which of the two rarest scenarios in presidential election history, is more likely for this election.

duhu said:

I'm not asking that. I'm asking which of the two rarest scenarios in presidential election history, is more likely for this election.

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shrug...

Don't know. Probably neither.

By pure statistical probability, Romney becomes the 5th example of winning the popular vote but loses the electoral vote.

Nevertheless I do not see it reaching that level.

Probably Romney winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college. If all RCP's averages held up right now that would be the case. There really aren't many viable tie scenarios, so I doubt that'll happen.

I'm hoping neither candidate will win lol

I think there is a good possibility that Obama will win the popular vote but lose the electoral.

Again this is a skewed poll. There are two people running not one.

wolfman24 said:

Again this is a skewed poll. There are two people running not one.

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What in the world are you talking about?

Romney wins the popular vote, but loses the electoral college
Neither candidate gets the 270 electoral votes necessary to win; House determines the President

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Neither is particularly likely, but obviously the first one is the more likely scenario of the two you've listed. The first one is at least plausible; the second is extremely unlikely. In fact, if the election were held today and the states all broke exactly the way that they're currently polling, your first situation would actually happen. I doubt that it'll actually happen on Election Day, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

There is only one plausible configuration of states that would result in an exact 269-269 split: Obama wins all the blue states (I'm counting Wisconsin as a blue state) as well as New Hampshire and Ohio. Romney wins all the red states and all the other swing states. I think it's EXTREMELY unlikely that that exact electoral configuration would come to pass.