debate swing

What do you predict the voting swing will be from the debates?

megaprogman said:

What do you predict the voting swing will be from the debates?

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Well from the first debate I think it'll be Romney + 3-4%. The other ones haven't happened yet, so I don't know if either of them will lead to any sort of swing to either side.

I predict nothing in terms of the polls. I think thus far the polls have been radically distorted and poorly sampled and wouldn't rely on them to gauge attitudes. As far as I'm concerned, my guy is always at risk of losing until the votes are counted.

Generally speaking, I expect Romney to gain ground in the battle ground states, potentially taking the lead position in FL and VA and close the gap (though not enough to swing the state) in a few others.

I think Romney had a short lived lead but with the BLS news its probably pretty much gone.

yes I know liberal conspiracy.. So I will say it in advance Yes of course it was.

Last night I got a call from EPIC/MRI the top polling firm here in Michigan. They are considered as the gold standard in these parts for public opinion surveys. The young man asked me lots of election questions and he asked me who I thought won the debate and I told him Romney by a wide margin. He then asked a follow up question as to if the results of the debate made me more willing to vote for Romney. I said NO.

When he was through I asked him question or two and he said he is getting lots of people who said Romney won the debate but they will vote for Obama.

It may have shaved some doubts from the people who were already voting for Romney but none of the Obama folk will consider changing their votes.

As for the independents... they wouldn't be much of independents if they would be swayed by one evening. At least not the informed ones. They would know that Romney is a two-faced, flip floping mormon and they would want to wait and see if he can be consistent and remember his platform at least until the next presidential debate or at least until his next speech.

the principal benefit of that debate to romney will be the number of republicans who will now get out and vote
he has a chance now
that possibility was largely not entertained prior to his debate victory

A net positive from Obama of small amount due to the foreign policy debate topics, which will be the dominant of the two topics for the last two debates. People will remember what they heard last more than what they heard earlier (Romney's very successful first debate). That being said, the effect will be a maximum couple of percentage points here or there. It's been a tight race for the most part (excluding the electoral college).

President Obama had little credibility in foreign affairs until he was President, but once he was President, he has a far more established resume in comparison with his rival. I also happen to think for the most part, it was a moderately successful term in terms of foreign affairs (with Osama bin Laden being the cherry on top). He has modified the course of American interventionism in between the schizophrenic tendencies of the Clinton administration and the overextension of the Bush administration, and it will be a probable roadmap for the next 8 years.

megaprogman said:

What do you predict the voting swing will be from the debates?

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1~2% swing which effectively changes nothing. Romney won the debate hands down, but it doesn't change the fact that the electorate has largely made up its mind. I honestly don't see this changing much of anything. Maybe if Obama totally blows the next two debates then something material may happen, but until that, there really isn't any statistical importance to his debate victory. I know I'm still voting Johnson over these two monkey tickets.

The Democrats made a decent point in asking which Romney was the one that won the debate? Which simply leads back to the notion that Romney will say anything to anyone to get a vote.

While it appears that a sizable voting block has essentially gone anyone but Obama to the point they'll vote for a candidate they have really no idea where that candidate actually stands on policies, that alone won't win the election. A 1~2% swing with that in mind won't change anything.

Let's see how the next two elections go. The Democrats really need to stop the small lead protection and focus on opening the race up. Rarely does protecting a small lead work. In politics or sports.