View Poll Results: Who will win in Nov

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  • Obama Will Win

    32 50.79%
  • Romny will Win

    15 23.81%
  • I dont know

    11 17.46%
  • The Debates will tell the tale

    5 7.94%
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Thread: Who do you believe will win in Nov

  1. #21
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Generally presidential candidates get a bounce when they announce their running mate, and another bounce when they have their convention. These typically fade away before Election Day. Therefore, I suspect that the end of August / beginning of September is probably the high-water mark for the Romney campaign. If Obama still has any kind of lead at all following the Republican convention, I think he'll be overwhelmingly likely to win. Basically I see the election in more or less the same way I've seen it for months now: Obama is a solid favorite to win reelection, but by no means a certainty. As an Obama supporter, I don't think there is any reason to worry unless Obama is actually behind in the polls by the last week of September.

    As for undecideds breaking against the incumbent...Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has done a statistical analysis of this, and found that it's largely a myth. Undecideds are not much more likely to vote for the challenger than the incumbent in presidential elections. In any case, there are an unusually low number of undecided voters in this election.
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  2. #22
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Quote Originally Posted by LiberalAvenger View Post
    I am sure a few skeletons will emerge from the closet. Obama has been gone over with a fine tooth comb and romney/ryan haven't.

    Mormons keep a lot of secrets.
    some truth in that for sure

  3. #23
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Quote Originally Posted by Your Star View Post
    I disagree, I think Romney is going to have several moments in the debates where he contradicts himself, and Obama will pounce.

    And I believe you are underestimating Biden, that debate will be closer than you think.
    The debates are going to decide it. More specifically I think it will come down to how Obama replies to the questions about jobs and the economy during the debates. If he blames Bush or downplays it as not as bad as people think during the debates Obama is going to lose this election. If Obama can clearly layout a plan that people believe are going to work and accepts responsibility for where we are right now I think he will win this election. But I honestly do believe this election hinders on the debates and how Obama addresses the jobs and economy.
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  4. #24
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Generally presidential candidates get a bounce when they announce their running mate, and another bounce when they have their convention. These typically fade away before Election Day. Therefore, I suspect that the end of August / beginning of September is probably the high-water mark for the Romney campaign. If Obama still has any kind of lead at all following the Republican convention, I think he'll be overwhelmingly likely to win. Basically I see the election in more or less the same way I've seen it for months now: Obama is a solid favorite to win reelection, but by no means a certainty. As an Obama supporter, I don't think there is any reason to worry unless Obama is actually behind in the polls by the last week of September.

    As for undecideds breaking against the incumbent...Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has done a statistical analysis of this, and found that it's largely a myth. Undecideds are not much more likely to vote for the challenger than the incumbent in presidential elections. In any case, there are an unusually low number of undecided voters in this election.

    I agree with this assessment and Ive said for quite awhile the debates will define who the winner will be....theres no ads in debates, no soundbites...the two candidates are blowing in the wind and either answer the question or avoid it...and the people watching will know the difference.

  5. #25
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Quote Originally Posted by Schutzengel View Post
    This mormon thing is going to be HUGE with the left isn't it?
    I kinda think so. look what the right did about obama's religious affiliations and the church he attended. what goes around comes around.

  6. #26
    Educator Schutzengel's Avatar
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Quote Originally Posted by LiberalAvenger View Post
    I kinda think so. look what the right did about obama's religious affiliations and the church he attended. what goes around comes around.
    As does the hypocracy of the screeching masses who claimed it was immoral and biogoted, until they had a chance to do it themselves.
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Quote Originally Posted by Schutzengel View Post
    As does the hypocracy of the screeching masses who claimed it was immoral and biogoted, until they had a chance to do it themselves.
    I am not claiming it's right . I am just saying that's just the way it is.

  8. #28
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Quote Originally Posted by LiberalAvenger View Post
    I am not claiming it's right . I am just saying that's just the way it is.
    That's a fun way to wash your hands of it... instead of being morally consistant, and saying it's wrong... but that's ok... I understand.
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Quote Originally Posted by Schutzengel View Post
    That's a fun way to wash your hands of it... instead of being morally consistant, and saying it's wrong... but that's ok... I understand.
    I don't believe in putting myself on a high moal pedistol ad judging others' I'll leave that to the likes of pat robertson. "Judge not lest ye be judged"

  10. #30
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    Re: Who do you believe will win in Nov

    Quote Originally Posted by LiberalAvenger View Post
    I don't believe in putting myself on a high moal pedistol ad judging others' I'll leave that to the likes of pat robertson. "Judge not lest ye be judged"
    Actually it's this

    Quote Originally Posted by matthew 7:1-6

    1"Do not judge, or you too will be judged.2For in the same way you judge others, you will be judged, and with the measure you use, it will be measured to you.3"Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother's eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?4How can you say to your brother, 'Let me take the speck out of your eye,' when all the time there is a plank in your own eye?5You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother's eye.6"Do not give dogs what is sacred; do not throw your pearls to pigs. If you do, they may trample them under their feet, and then turn and tear you to pieces.

    Directing someone when they are morally out of bounds isn't judgement... condemning them, assigning motives, saying that you know what they think...

    Saying that you know what is in the heart of another man, that is judgement...

    picking up another brother who has stumbled along the way ... that is guidance, and mercy...

    but that's just my take on it.
    Last edited by Schutzengel; 08-24-12 at 11:46 AM. Reason: fix a tag
    History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid. - Ike

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