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What minor party has the best chance to become a major party?

What minor party has the best chance to become a major party?


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In your opinion, what minor party has the best chance of becoming a major party nationwide or in at least three states?

I believe that honor belongs to the Libertarian Party, largely because the Justice and Green parties haven't been very successful in recruiting Democrats to their parties.
 
None. We will always have two parties in the US. Its our tradition. That's how our electoral system is set up to deter third parties.
 
The LP, but its shot is still one in a million.
 
None. We will always have two parties in the US. Its our tradition. That's how our electoral system is set up to deter third parties.

While the current answer is none because of how the system has become rigged, in general your analysis is incorrect. The electoral system will preferentially select as stable two major parties. That is to say there would be no third parties, or political competition, or an ability to replace one of the major parties with a different party should the case arise. While we are stable at 2 major parties, there is nothing innate to the system as it was originally designed to say that we would always have to have the SAME 2 parties. Before the system was rigged against political competition, it was possible to have third parties in the wings and if necessary replace a major party with one.
 
While the current answer is none because of how the system has become rigged, in general your analysis is incorrect. The electoral system will preferentially select as stable two major parties. That is to say there would be no third parties, or political competition, or an ability to replace one of the major parties with a different party should the case arise. While we are stable at 2 major parties, there is nothing innate to the system as it was originally designed to say that we would always have to have the SAME 2 parties. Before the system was rigged against political competition, it was possible to have third parties in the wings and if necessary replace a major party with one.


I never sad it will be the same two parties, but it will be two parties none the less. The start of the union had federalists and democrat-republicans and now we have democrats and republicans. I think the only thing that is possible now is that the parties could realign like they did. If you remember the democratic party used to be the conservative party and the republican party was the liberal one. Either way we will never have a third party.
 
I never sad it will be the same two parties, but it will be two parties none the less. The start of the union had federalists and democrat-republicans and now we have democrats and republicans. I think the only thing that is possible now is that the parties could realign like they did. If you remember the democratic party used to be the conservative party and the republican party was the liberal one. Either way we will never have a third party.

It's not to say that we'll never have a "third party". We can certainly have them and they can hold office to lesser extent too. If the system was open, you'd see a handful on the federal level and more at local levels. You won't have only 2 parties, you will have (with our current electoral system) 2 main parties at any given time.
 
The current two party system can't be usurped since Republicans are in bed with social liberalism a la feminism, multiculturalism, and populism.

Likewise, Democrats are in bed with fiscal conservatism a la consumerism, workaholism, industrialism, and professionalism.

For all the whining libertarians do, the current two party system actually celebrates what they want.
 
For all the whining libertarians do, the current two party system actually celebrates what they want.

Only if one is to be truly ignorant of what libertarians call for.
 
Only if one is to be truly ignorant of what libertarians call for.

No true Scotsman already? C'mon, you can do better than that ikari.
 
To me, the only real demographic up for grabs is the moderate, independent middle. The far ends are too ideological to be able to unite in a true third party. The larger group, the more open-minded group, the less-ideological group, is the one to eye for creating a viable third party.

As I've already explained in other threads, I think the Whigs might be the best party so far to meet that requirement.
 
It's not to say that we'll never have a "third party". We can certainly have them and they can hold office to lesser extent too. If the system was open, you'd see a handful on the federal level and more at local levels. You won't have only 2 parties, you will have (with our current electoral system) 2 main parties at any given time.

We've even had a few elected President! It's been awhile, but alternative parties to the Big Two have been successful.
 
To me, the only real demographic up for grabs is the moderate, independent middle. The far ends are too ideological to be able to unite in a true third party. The larger group, the more open-minded group, the less-ideological group, is the one to eye for creating a viable third party.

As I've already explained in other threads, I think the Whigs might be the best party so far to meet that requirement.

The independent middle actually celebrates everything I listed before about libertarianism's problems. The establishment does what the middle wants. The middle is just too nervous to admit it.
 
We've even had a few elected President! It's been awhile, but alternative parties to the Big Two have been successful.

They have been, they could be again if we allow true political competition. But the Republocrats are opposed to open competition of most forms (they certainly are no fan of the free market)
 
As stated, none. Libertarianism has the best shot, but it's still needle-in-a-haystack.

Job number one isn't to advance a third party - it's to abolish the two party winner-take-all system. Then we can revisit this and argue about who rises up to fight against the Bill Gates and Steven Jobs of politics.
 
Right now, Tweedledee and Tweedledum have government power sewed up. As long as it takes hundreds of millions to run for national office, it will continue to be so. As long as the lobbyists remain the real power in Washington, as long as Joe Public continues to base his votes on party loyalty and misleading political advertising, the third parties have little chance of getting any real power.

But, just imagine the Libertarians actually getting some of their ideas made policy: No more subsidies, no more giving money away to foreign powers, no more military installations all over the world, no more war on drugs, the Bill of Rights restored, the philosophy that the purpose of government is to protect our god given rights the driving force, wouldn't that be worth a change in the way we do business in Washington?
 
Right now, Tweedledee and Tweedledum have government power sewed up. As long as it takes hundreds of millions to run for national office, it will continue to be so. As long as the lobbyists remain the real power in Washington, as long as Joe Public continues to base his votes on party loyalty and misleading political advertising, the third parties have little chance of getting any real power.

But, just imagine the Libertarians actually getting some of their ideas made policy: No more subsidies, no more giving money away to foreign powers, no more military installations all over the world, no more war on drugs, the Bill of Rights restored, the philosophy that the purpose of government is to protect our god given rights the driving force, wouldn't that be worth a change in the way we do business in Washington?

You just listed the two major problems with libertarian competition. 1) The system is set up against third party competition 2) The status quo is well entrenched and wants to remain the status quo and the libertarian platform is hostile to that. All the corporations and banks and such funneling money into government and lobbying would do whatever it takes to keep something like the LP out of aggregate public consciousness.
 
No more subsidies

Selfish racist.

no more giving money away to foreign powers

Selfish racist.

no more military installations all over the world

Selfish racist.

no more war on drugs

Selfish racist.

the Bill of Rights restored

Selfish racist.

the philosophy that the purpose of government is to protect our god given rights the driving force

Selfish racist.

wouldn't that be worth a change in the way we do business in Washington?

Washington doesn't like selfish racists.
 
At this point none of the 3rd Parties can be one to replace one of the other two or get a third slot.

While the Electoral College may implicitly cause the 2 party system to exist, the rules stacked against the 3rd Parties in the States explicitly guarantee that the two existing Parties stay in power and not have competition. If the laws that restrict 3rd Parties were stricken then there may be a realignment of one or both parties.
 
The independent middle actually celebrates everything I listed before about libertarianism's problems. The establishment does what the middle wants. The middle is just too nervous to admit it.

I'd rather have something done than the endless stretch of partisan do-nothingness.
 
I'd rather have something done than the endless stretch of partisan do-nothingness.

Are you saying today's welfare, education, health care, and social work programs do nothing?

(You can include the MIC as welfare in considering the poverty draft.)
 
In your opinion, what minor party has the best chance of becoming a major party nationwide or in at least three states?I believe that honor belongs to the Libertarian Party, largely because the Justice and Green parties haven't been very successful in recruiting Democrats to their parties.
Libertarian probably yes... though the odds are slim anytime this half-century. I would say Constitution Party but social conservativism seems likely to dwindle to a distinct minority in the next 20 years, and the CP is pretty conservative socially. LP has some appeal to both conservatives and liberals, in that it is fiscally rather conservative but socially liberal, in a sense at least. But it will probably be a replacement of one party of the other and it probably won't occur in the next 20-30 years.
 
Libertarian probably yes... though the odds are slim anytime this half-century. I would say Constitution Party but social conservativism seems likely to dwindle to a distinct minority in the next 20 years, and the CP is pretty conservative socially. LP has some appeal to both conservatives and liberals, in that it is fiscally rather conservative but socially liberal, in a sense at least. But it will probably be a replacement of one party of the other and it probably won't occur in the next 20-30 years.

The Death Penalty is dying. Wouldn't surprise me if only Texas and maybe 5 other states have it in 15 years.

More and more people support non-conservative routes in Health Care.
More and more people oppose the socially conservative monstrosity of the "War on Drugs"
More and more people see no reason why prostitution should be illegal.
More and more people support gay rights, including the right to marry.

The only one they've made gains on is abortion.
 
In your opinion, what minor party has the best chance of becoming a major party nationwide or in at least three states?

I believe that honor belongs to the Libertarian Party, largely because the Justice and Green parties haven't been very successful in recruiting Democrats to their parties.

I don't think any of them stand a chance anytime soon. I personally give to the Green party and will likely be voting Green in the upcoming election, but IF a third party were to become a major party, it would likely be the Libertarian party for the reason you stated.
 
The Death Penalty is dying. Wouldn't surprise me if only Texas and maybe 5 other states have it in 15 years.

More and more people support non-conservative routes in Health Care.
More and more people oppose the socially conservative monstrosity of the "War on Drugs"
More and more people see no reason why prostitution should be illegal.
More and more people support gay rights, including the right to marry.

The only one they've made gains on is abortion.


Well, yes and no.

A lot of people dont see a problem legalizing WEED.... but a majority still have a big problem with the LP notion of legalizing everything.

Liberals don't like the LP's opposition to federal social programs. Conservatives don't like the LP's desire to abolish "morality laws", especially legalizing hard drugs.

It is going to take a while for attitudes to change enough for the LP to become a major party... IF they ever do.

Now "Libertarian Lite" could stand a MUCH better chance MUCH sooner.... but most libertarians won't compromise towards the middle enough to be considered "Libertarian Lite".

This is why Ron Paul doesn't actually win in actual elections.... he takes things further than most people can accept.
 
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None. We will always have two parties in the US. Its our tradition. That's how our electoral system is set up to deter third parties.

Yup. Its one of the flaws in the US's initial set up. The founders tried to stay away from parties in general, but their plan backfired on them big time.
 
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