View Poll Results: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

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  • Yes

    17 44.74%
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    12 31.58%
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    9 23.68%
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Thread: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

  1. #21
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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Now that is a good question. I think it is entirely possible, but I think it would be really hard. If the September jobs report shows unemployment over 8, I would call Romney the favorite to win in November, barring any other major changes between now and then. If it does drop under 8 by then, Romney is probably in trouble.
    when did 8% become acceptable or the new normal?

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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    when did 8% become acceptable or the new normal?
    Where did I say it had?
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

  3. #23
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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLastIndependent View Post
    I hope you were being sarcastic. Obama would not start war with Iran assuming he keeps on the same line as his foreign policy has been
    Well, there are three players in this game - Iran, the US, and Israel.

    Iran's goal is to continue to delay and stall until a Nuclear weapon becomes a "fact on the ground" and they are untouchable, a'la North Korea.

    Israel's Goal is to prevent this from happening, without losing the backing of the US.

    Obama's Goal is to get reelected.


    Israel faces a decision point between now and the election:

    If Obama wins, then the game is effectively up - the US is unlikely to strike Iran to keep them from gaining a nuclear capability, and the punishments that a now-unaccountable President Obama (who doesn't need to run for reelection and is therefore... how did he put it... "more flexible") can bring to bear are prohibitive for the Israeli state.

    If Obama loses, then a President Romney is likely to be much more accommodating to Israeli desires to put a pointed end to Iran's nuclear program.

    The Decision Point, therefore, is at when Israeli Intelligence comes to its' final conclusion at a predetermined time-hack as to who will win the election. If Mossad decides that Romney will win, then Israel will wait. If Mossad decides that Obama will win, then the Prime Minister faces the choice of acceding to a constant overhanging existential threat to his people controlled by religious nutcases, or launching a strike pre election. Obama's higher goal of reelection, in such a case, would require him not to immediately respond by seeking to isolate and abandon Israel. The US will support Israel to one measure or another, ensuring that we will, indeed, have increased the state of conflict that we are already in with Iran prior to the election. That close to November, everything up to and including this will be politicized, and Obama will absolutely attempt to capitalize on what he was effectively forced to do.

  4. #24
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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Where did I say it had?
    You seemed to suggest it as a decision point for the American populace: over 8% bad, under 8% good. That is a presentation that implies a normal of 8%.

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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    You seemed to suggest it as a decision point for the American populace: over 8% bad, under 8% good. That is a presentation that implies a normal of 8%.
    No, nor is it nearly that clear cut actually. You are reading far too much into what I wrote. The unemployment rate will be a negative for Obama, the higher, the more of a negative. Does that make it clearer?
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
    most Americans are smart enough to understand that Obama really isn't at fault for this, as the European debt-crisis and China's reaction to it, is playing a large part in all of this.
    Most Americans who voted in 2008 were stupid enough to vote for Obama, so maybe they're stupid enough to deflect blame from Obama.

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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    There's far more to the overall economy than flat unemployment rate, like median salary, consumer debt and spending, inflation. It's quite possible he would be reelected because Repubs have pinned themselves into a corner on social issues, such that demographics can easily outweigh the economy. Not just on gay rights or the mythical college age voter, but the idiotic attacking of women and Hispanics. The only group they haven't offended many times over is old white men. Add to that Romney probably inspires the base far less than McCain did.

    I really think Obama would have little chance if they hadn't bullied in to things like contraception, vaginal probing and racial profiling. There's also a growing awareness that the economy is still sucking, or at least prevented from a chance at improving, in large part because of Republican obstructionism in the Senate. If he's not re-elected it's because the turnout is pathetic, or the economy takes another big hit.

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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    No, nor is it nearly that clear cut actually. You are reading far too much into what I wrote. The unemployment rate will be a negative for Obama, the higher, the more of a negative. Does that make it clearer?
    So you are arguing that there is no greater electoral effect between (say) 7.9% and 8.0% as there is between 8.0% and 8.1%?

  9. #29
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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    Unemployment would be an issue if they actually gave the real number, but they always post that false 8%. I wonder what people would say if they knew the actual percentage was closer to 20% rather than 8%
    Libertarian and Atheist...wow I'm a hated man.

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    Re: Will Obama be re-elected in November if the unemployment rate stays over 8%?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    So you are arguing that there is no greater electoral effect between (say) 7.9% and 8.0% as there is between 8.0% and 8.1%?
    Did I write that? No. If you want to talk about what I actually wrote, get back to me. Right now you are having a discussion with yourself.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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