View Poll Results: What does SCOTUS decide?

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  • Whole Bill Falls

    2 7.69%
  • Whole Bill Stays

    9 34.62%
  • Just Mandate Falls

    13 50.00%
  • Just Medicaid Expansion Falls

    1 3.85%
  • See Ya in 2015!

    1 3.85%
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Thread: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

  1. #1
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    What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    Options taken from SCOTUS Blog.


    ...[T]he Court [...] has four issues before it — three of which are somewhat clustered, and one of which stands somewhat (but not entirely) alone...

    [T]he individual mandate is one of the clustered issues. The second is whether the Court has the authority to decide the fate of the mandate. And the third is whether, if the mandate is struck down as unconstitutional, other parts of the massive Affordable Care Act must fall with it — if any.

    The authority-to-rule question turns upon the meaning of a section of the federal Anti-Injunction Act, first enacted by Congress in 1867... If the AIA is found to be binding in this case, then the mandate’s fate (if not repealed by Congress in the meantime) could not be decided until after it goes into effect in 2014. The final answer might not be known until sometime in 2015, after another round of court review...

    But suppose the Court were to rule that AIA does not apply... Then the Court would have to move on to the second of the clustered issues: is the mandate, in fact, unconstitutional? If the Court upholds it as constitutional, that makes it unnecessary to decide the third item in the cluster: what else falls with the mandate, or does none of it fall? But if the mandate is struck down, the Court has to get to that third issue (which is called the “severability” question, because it involves deciding whether the invalid part of a law can be sliced off from all, or at least part, of the rest)...

    This brings the summing-up to the fourth issue, in some ways separated. That issue is whether Congress exceeded its constitutional powers by enacting, as part of the new law, a very wide expansion of eligibility for the government-subsidized Medicaid program of providing medical care to the poor. This may be thought of as separate from the clustered three issues, because a decision not to decide the mandate and severability issues (because the AIA prevents such a ruling) would not affect the need to decide the challenge to the broader Medicaid eligibility....

    The Court must then decide whether to do something it has not done to a federal law in three-quarters of a century: strike down a law that Congress enacted by using its power under the Constitution’s Spending Clause. (The mandate part of the law was based upon the Commerce Clause, not the Spending Clause.) Three times since the last use of the Court’s power to nullify a federal law was used against a Spending Clause measure, the Court has said that it might be possible that the conditions Congress imposed on someone receiving federal funds were so onerous that they would amount to coercion. In other words, the conditions actually forced the recipient of money to make a choice it would not otherwise make...

    Predict Ye Now And Stand Known For Ye'r Thoughts Tomorrah.
    Last edited by cpwill; 06-27-12 at 08:40 AM.

  2. #2
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    Re: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    bah. COWARDS!!!

  3. #3
    Educator AreteCourage's Avatar
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    Re: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    Fine...I'll bite here...

    I think the Supreme Court will uphold the legislation. I believe the fix is in for it. Obamacare will be our national healthcare system, and the high courts will not do anything to overturn it.

    Does that mean I think its right? No, but I just see things going that way. This victory for Obama will be huge for the short term success of his never ending campaign season.
    Libertarian and Atheist...wow I'm a hated man.

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    Re: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    the IM is the only part that may be unConstitutional, so that may go.

  5. #5
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    Re: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    I believe just the mandate will fall.

  6. #6
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    Re: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dirt Racer View Post
    I believe just the mandate will fall.
    Ditto, but who knows for sure, well I guess everyone will 2morrow.
    A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
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  7. #7
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    Re: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    I voted for the the whole bill passes. The "mandate" is so weak ($100 fine for some, and no way to enforce even that) that it can not be unconstitutional and the Justices will not strike it down.
    Last edited by iguanaman; 06-27-12 at 12:37 PM.

  8. #8
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    Re: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    I think theres a strong possibility the mandate fails

  9. #9
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    Re: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    Honestly, it could go either way.
    Whether or not other people agree, these guys haven't been all that predictable.
    I was discovering that life just simply isn't fair and bask in the unsung glory of knowing that each obstacle overcome along the way only adds to the satisfaction in the end. Nothing great, after all, was ever accomplished by anyone sulking in his or her misery.
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  10. #10
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    Re: What wil SCOTUS decision on Obamacare Be?

    I'll let you know my opinion tomorrow.
    Boston: City of Champions. New England Patriots: 2001, 2003, 2004, 2014, and 2016 Boston Red Sox: 2004, 2007 and 2013 Boston Celtics: 2008 Boston Bruins: 2011 Boston University Men's Hockey: 2008



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