WHICH unemployment rate? The U-3 is the commonly used rate but there are two others that I know of, probably more. I'm not an economist so I don't get into the other rates very often.
The CPI is raw data, yes.
With respect, the CPI is not 'raw' data'. It used to be somewhat raw' data' - but not any longer.
The U.S. CPI is only partially derived by the the straight numbers of how much prices went up. Today it is FAR more subjective (then say in 1980).
Today, much of the rate is decided upon subjectively by people on the basis of efficiencies.
For example - if the same model of computer costs 5% more year-over-year BUT the people that tabulate the CPI numbers decide that the new model is 10% more efficient then the old one, then the price of that computer is officially stated to have dropped by 5% - even though it did no such thing.
And that is just one of many, many ways that the CPI is anything but just raw data.
Not only is that a large part of how the CPI is calculated - the powers that be want to make a larger and lager part of the CPI decided upon using that arbitrary process.
Today's CPI by design calculates the inflation rate FAR lower then it did a generation ago.
All methods of gathering government statistics are very explicitly spelled out - much, much better than anyone else out there.
Imo, no they are not 'explicitly spelled out. How can you spell out when you sometimes use subjective opinion to arrive at a statistic? And please show me where in the CPI tabulation that they spell out exactly how each portion of the CPI is calculated? Not just the general areas - but exactly and down to the smallest detail exactly how every single portion of the CPI is arrived at - leaving NOTHING out.
I guarantee you that that kind of detail does not exist.
And why?
The answer should be relatively obvious (imo) - the government wants people to think inflation is far lower then it really is.
All this Keynesian spending and massive deficits and ultra low interest rates to stimulate the economy all are subject to one statistic - inflation.
If inflation rises too much - then the Fed must raise interest rates and that kills all stimuli and huge government deficits.
Now, I am not saying the government is lying about the CPI - they are too smart for that.
But they have decided upon a method of calculating the CPI that makes it seem far lower then the actual year-over-year increase in prices (or for that matter - far lower then the 'old' way of determining the CPI) so that they can maintain their high deficits and low interest rates policy.
Plus, I guarantee you that the vast majority of Americans have no clue that the CPI is not calculated using the same methodology it was say 25-30 years ago.