View Poll Results: Will China become the next hegemonic power?

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  • Yes

    8 38.10%
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  • Maybe, it depends

    4 19.05%
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Thread: China the next power?

  1. #1
    Advisor Lightning's Avatar
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    Question China the next power?

    Many people, due to the U.S. economy and status declining in global politics believe that China will be the next great hegemonic power. Thoughts?

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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lightning View Post
    Many people, due to the U.S. economy and status declining in global politics believe that China will be the next great hegemonic power. Thoughts?
    There won't be any powers who can exert hegemonic influence over the entire globe, which in effect means no more superpowers. Instead, there will be a couple "great powers" in the manner of 19th century Europe.
    Last edited by Morality Games; 05-22-12 at 05:30 PM.
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    Re: China the next power?

    But throughout the history of the world, there have been many hegemonic powers, i.e. state actors that exert enormous -whether political or economic- influence on the rest of the world. This is where the long cycles theory of hegemonic power comes from. Whats to say that there will not be another hegemonic power after the U.S. is removed from its position for whatever reason? If not, why?
    Last edited by Lightning; 05-22-12 at 05:34 PM.

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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lightning View Post
    But throughout the history of the world, there have been many hegemonic powers, i.e. state actors that exert enormous -whether political or economic- influence on the rest of the world. This is wear the long cycles theory of hegemonic power comes from. Whats to say that there will not be another hegemonic power after the U.S. is removed from its position for whatever reason? If not, why?
    And there still will be. Just not one who enjoys all the hegemonic power.

    The periods of history where a state acquired superpower status stand out to the casual historian, but it is common for there to be multiple powerful states lording over a smaller number of weaker states -- "Great Powers", in the way of the 19th century European states that enjoyed the run of Asia and Africa. The British Empire was consistently the largest and strongest of them, but the diffrence wasn't significant enough for Britain to be considered a superpower relative to either France or Prussia (Germany). Even Belgium enjoyed disproportionate power thanks to its lucrative trade in the Congo.
    Last edited by Morality Games; 05-22-12 at 05:41 PM.
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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Morality Games View Post
    And there still will be. Just not one who enjoys all the hegemonic power.

    The periods of history where a state acquired superpower status stand out to the casual historian, but it is common for there to be multiple powerful states lording over a smaller number of weaker states -- "Great Powers", in the way of the 19th century European states that enjoyed the run of Asia and Africa. The British Empire was consistently the largest and strongest of them, but the diffrence wasn't significant enough for Britain to be considered a superpower relative to either France or Prussia (Germany).
    I realize that there was bilateral and multilateral divisions of power throughout history, I was just poking around to see what your reasoning is. The difference was in fact according to text books significant, since the British empire did possess a navy that was far more superior to any other state actor during the time, which gave them the power to extend to most corners of the world.

    And as mentioned, most IR text books disagree with you, and do teach that Great Britain was at that point the hegemonic power.

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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lightning View Post
    I realize that there was bilateral and multilateral divisions of power throughout history, I was just poking around to see what your reasoning is. The difference was in fact according to text books significant, since the British empire did possess a navy that was far more superior to any other state actor during the time, which gave them the power to extend to most corners of the world.

    And as mentioned, most IR text books disagree with you, and do teach that Great Britain was at that point the hegemonic power.
    They really weren't, and I think you are mistaken on the number of scholars who would assert the British Empire was comparable to post-WWII United States, aka, was a superpower. They couldn't make France, Prussia, the United States, or any other industrialized state do much of anything that those states didn't want to do. In contrast, the United States could make Europe do quite a bit, had the run of South Africa, were big in Asia, and generally came out ahead in the Middle East. Since all states were compelled to choose between "allying" with one of two states, anyone who went more in the direction of democracy and capitalism ended up in the American sphere of influence. Nobody was breaking their neck in the rush to get in the British Empire's sphere of influence.

    The British Empire was definitely the strongest thanks to its Navy, but their state suffered from internal problems due to their size/diversity from the beginning, whereas countries like France and Prussia had much smaller but also much more manageable economic holdings. The British Empire was the best at lording over small states, but had too devote too many resources to it for them to come out ahead against France and Prussia, their political and cultural rivals.
    Last edited by Morality Games; 05-22-12 at 06:11 PM.
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    Re: China the next power?

    I agree. That brought their downfall, proving the long cycles theory correct. Will the same thing happen to the U.S. though? Why? Many people argue that the U.S. is over-extending their reach, and believe that we're proving the long cycles theory to be the explanation (for lack of a better word) of global power and change. Is that true? Who will take our place as hegemonic power?

    I personally agree with you, and believe that if by chance we are knocked off the top of the totem pole, we won't be replaced by China.

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    Re: China the next power?

    China, even though its seen massive growth in the last decade, is still quite unstable. They are almost over inflating themselves. I think sometime very soon you will see them eventually come back down to earth.
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    Re: China the next power?

    To me, it seems the Great Powers were the result of Big Banks and investing outside the home country. England and France and Spain didn't send ships to the New World for exploration, it was for profit. It worked well and grew their power and banking. Learn about Big Banking. Try BIS, and really big Reserve banks and then decide what it is they do with money.

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    Re: China the next power?

    There will be hegemons again on a regional basis. Will there be a planetary wide hegemon like America again? That depends on whether the forces of history line up in some unforeseeable age which permit a prepared people to seize the opportunity. The only certainty is uncertainty.

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