View Poll Results: Will China become the next hegemonic power?

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  • Yes

    8 38.10%
  • No

    9 42.86%
  • Maybe, it depends

    4 19.05%
  • Another Country will, but not China

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Thread: China the next power?

  1. #11
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    Re: China the next power?

    It is possible that China will rise, but unlikely that it will claim the top spot alone. The U.S. has many allies that are unlikely to leave us. The problem, as I see it, is that both the U.S. and much of Europe are racing toward economic collapse to maintain social welfare systems based on income redistribution. China, while not having nearly our standard of living, does have a fast growing economy, but no desire to share that wealth with its masses (thus keeping a big export market), even if most of its economy is based on only producing cheaper clones of the inventions of others. Military power alone does not make a nation into a superpower, it requires both economic might and strong allies to remain on top. I do not see any nations teaming with China to push it into the top spot, certainly not Japan, India or Russia, its closest and most powerful neighbors. I don't see the middle east or southeast Asia stabilizing enough to be counted on as anyone's ally.
    Last edited by ttwtt78640; 05-22-12 at 07:51 PM.
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
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  2. #12
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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    It is possible that China will rise, but unlikely that it will claim the top spot alone. The U.S. has many allies that are unlikely to leave us. The problem, as I see it, is that both the U.S. and much of Europe are racing toward economic collapse to maintain social welfare systems based on income redistribution. China, while not having nearly our standard of living, does have a fast growing economy, but no desire to share that wealth with its masses (thus keeping a big export market), even if most of its economy is based on only producing cheaper clones of the inventions of others. Military power alone does not make a nation into a superpower, it requires both economic might and strong allies to remain on top. I do not see any nations teaming with China to push it into the top spot, certainly not Japan, India or Russia, its closest and most powerful neighbors. I don't see the middle east or southeast Asia stabilizing enough to be counted on as anyone's ally.
    Agreed. China does not have the political power necessary to project itself into hegemonic status. Adding on to your comment about their reluctance to share wealth. China throughout their history have never engaged in economic and political discords with the rest of the world. They have maintained a predominantly isolationist stance in realpolitik. They refer to China as "All under Heaven" or the middle of the world, and believe that everyone else is privileged to engage with China instead of engaging in a mutual reach towards wealth. Not to mention that their economic rise is being rested on shaky ground. As you said, military power alone does not automatically mean you're the big dog. Industrialization, geographical size, political and economic power, and a strong capable and advanced military are all some of the most important factors that will determine hegemonic status. All of which the U.S. still surpasses by far every country on Earth.

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    Re: China the next power?

    Good points and I would agree with most of them. The American military became highly advanced in a relatively short space of time, namely during and immediately after the second world war and this was built upon in the previous decades. Given time and economic power, Chinese progress shouldn't be underestimated. Statistics show China is pushing quite hard on all fronts, but again I agree, the political side is more complex. International partnerships are essential to push forward and I can't see much happening on that front.

  4. #14
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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Morality Games View Post
    There won't be any powers who can exert hegemonic influence over the entire globe, which in effect means no more superpowers. Instead, there will be a couple "great powers" in the manner of 19th century Europe.
    That makes sense to me...and I agree

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    Re: China the next power?

    My greatest concern is if russia and china ever decide to pair...its very unlikely however

  6. #16
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    Re: China the next power?

    Going to be? It already is.. the US is just in denial and clinging to its power just as the empires the US took power from.
    PeteEU

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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Going to be? It already is.. the US is just in denial and clinging to its power just as the empires the US took power from.
    In a way I agree with you...they certainly have a better economny since our corps sent all our jobs there and guess what they also have more money than us because of it.

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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by lpast View Post
    In a way I agree with you...they certainly have a better economny since our corps sent all our jobs there and guess what they also have more money than us because of it.
    Well, while China is not a bigger economy, it has more people, a bigger military, and produces most of the worlds goods. It controls key resources and can influence world politics considerably.. mostly with soft power. Even the US bends over when China says it should. No one wants to piss off the Chinese too much, since then we wont be able to get our iPads and iPhones at a cheap rate (yes that is ironic since they are hugely expensive and overpriced..)

    If we look at it historically, then it even fits more. The British Empire was in decline from WW1 to WW2 and totally knocked out after WW2.

    What made the British Empire powerful, was not its economic power, but its navy and military power... but that was expensive and that is where the economic power came in. Another factor was simply the amount of people in the Empire.. . As long as the money from colonies came in and it was profitable, then the Empire could keep its massive navy and military going and maintain its power over its subjects. But then WW1 came and the British military along with other colonial powers took serious hits both economically and militarily but also morally in the colonies. The colonies went from being profitable to be hotbeds of revolution and what not and not worth the military presence there. But because of pride and stupidity, the British (and others) maintained their empire. When WW2 happened, the economies of the former Imperial nations was gutted by debt and destruction and that let the new kid on the block.. the US into the frame and the time of the US empire started.

    Driven by a massive military, and untouched industrial infrastructure and vast resources, the US basically took over the role of global empire from the British over night. They forced the British out of Egypt, and other places.. and yet maintained their own colonies in Puerto Rico and other areas. They used the military to spread economic power.. Coca Cola is a great example. The reason Coca Cola is so big today world wide, is simply because the company had a contract to supply the US military and built bottling plants on the US tax payers dime world wide, and then was able to establish it self cheaply in many markets and start selling to the locals as well. It is in many ways no different than what the British East India Company did. Monopolies are "great" no? They also set up a sign basically saying.. "forget your past come to our shores and we will pay you for your ideas and technology".. that is how you got to the moon first...and then there was of course the "payment" for helping the Europeans.. the British basically handed over their whole Jet technology research to the US because of this.

    Now days, that economic power based on the surge after WW2 is declining, in part because others have been rising out of the ashes.. Japan and Germany, and then of course the new powers like China, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil. The US is not nr. 1 in many industries as it once was, it is not the best at everything (despite what many Americans think) and the military power that created the economic world wide power is getting so expensive that in the medium and long term it is not sustainable .. much like the British Empire.

    Look at the facts. Are new technology releases done in the US first these days? Most are not. Only major phone release that is done first in the US now days is the iPhone. How about movie releases? Nope, many of the big blockbusters are actually released in Europe and China first... Avengers had earned in its costs in Europe and Asia before it hit the US theatres over a month after the world release date. More and more technology innovation and especially manufacturing is done outside the US.. the list goes on and on.

    It is exactly what happened to the British Empire. It started with industries popping up in the UK.. Liverpool, Manchester and so on.. driven on by resources from the colonies. The decline started when those industries were moved to "cheaper" areas of the world .. sound familiar?

    Now will the decline take 2 decades as the British Empire or will it be a longer one like the Roman Empire.. I tend to think the few decades version more and more (maybe not as short as 2.. but under 100 years that is for sure), considering that China dwarfs the US in people alone... and future consumers.

    Of course that can all change.. had WW1 not happened and especially WW2, then the world could still be run by the British Empire... so who really knows, but based on the facts as they stand now... China is near if not at the top of the global economic power house and the US is "only" nr 2. Russia is also banging on the US door.. alone on its massive amount of natural resources it has. Like it or not, the future is dependent on control of a few types of natural resources, and the US controls none of them, and China controls a considerable amount. If China wanted to hurt the US.. then it should not recall its loans.. but stop selling rare earth metals to the US.. bye bye the mobile phone and computers in general. Intel would go belly up over night. That is real power..
    Last edited by PeteEU; 05-25-12 at 08:50 AM.
    PeteEU

  9. #19
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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Well, while China is not a bigger economy, it has more people, a bigger military, and produces most of the worlds goods. It controls key resources and can influence world politics considerably.. mostly with soft power. Even the US bends over when China says it should. No one wants to piss off the Chinese too much, since then we wont be able to get our iPads and iPhones at a cheap rate (yes that is ironic since they are hugely expensive and overpriced..)

    If we look at it historically, then it even fits more. The British Empire was in decline from WW1 to WW2 and totally knocked out after WW2.

    What made the British Empire powerful, was not its economic power, but its navy and military power... but that was expensive and that is where the economic power came in. Another factor was simply the amount of people in the Empire.. . As long as the money from colonies came in and it was profitable, then the Empire could keep its massive navy and military going and maintain its power over its subjects. But then WW1 came and the British military along with other colonial powers took serious hits both economically and militarily but also morally in the colonies. The colonies went from being profitable to be hotbeds of revolution and what not and not worth the military presence there. But because of pride and stupidity, the British (and others) maintained their empire. When WW2 happened, the economies of the former Imperial nations was gutted by debt and destruction and that let the new kid on the block.. the US into the frame and the time of the US empire started.

    Driven by a massive military, and untouched industrial infrastructure and vast resources, the US basically took over the role of global empire from the British over night. They forced the British out of Egypt, and other places.. and yet maintained their own colonies in Puerto Rico and other areas. They used the military to spread economic power.. Coca Cola is a great example. The reason Coca Cola is so big today world wide, is simply because the company had a contract to supply the US military and built bottling plants on the US tax payers dime world wide, and then was able to establish it self cheaply in many markets and start selling to the locals as well. It is in many ways no different than what the British East India Company did. Monopolies are "great" no? They also set up a sign basically saying.. "forget your past come to our shores and we will pay you for your ideas and technology".. that is how you got to the moon first...and then there was of course the "payment" for helping the Europeans.. the British basically handed over their whole Jet technology research to the US because of this.

    Now days, that economic power based on the surge after WW2 is declining, in part because others have been rising out of the ashes.. Japan and Germany, and then of course the new powers like China, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil. The US is not nr. 1 in many industries as it once was, it is not the best at everything (despite what many Americans think) and the military power that created the economic world wide power is getting so expensive that in the medium and long term it is not sustainable .. much like the British Empire.

    Look at the facts. Are new technology releases done in the US first these days? Most are not. Only major phone release that is done first in the US now days is the iPhone. How about movie releases? Nope, many of the big blockbusters are actually released in Europe and China first... Avengers had earned in its costs in Europe and Asia before it hit the US theatres over a month after the world release date. More and more technology innovation and especially manufacturing is done outside the US.. the list goes on and on.

    It is exactly what happened to the British Empire. It started with industries popping up in the UK.. Liverpool, Manchester and so on.. driven on by resources from the colonies. The decline started when those industries were moved to "cheaper" areas of the world .. sound familiar?

    Now will the decline take 2 decades as the British Empire or will it be a longer one like the Roman Empire.. I tend to think the few decades version more and more (maybe not as short as 2.. but under 100 years that is for sure), considering that China dwarfs the US in people alone... and future consumers.

    Of course that can all change.. had WW1 not happened and especially WW2, then the world could still be run by the British Empire... so who really knows, but based on the facts as they stand now... China is near if not at the top of the global economic power house and the US is "only" nr 2. Russia is also banging on the US door.. alone on its massive amount of natural resources it has. Like it or not, the future is dependent on control of a few types of natural resources, and the US controls none of them, and China controls a considerable amount. If China wanted to hurt the US.. then it should not recall its loans.. but stop selling rare earth metals to the US.. bye bye the mobile phone and computers in general. Intel would go belly up over night. That is real power..
    China is working feverishly to improve its military...it already has the economic structure, <thanks to us> to fuel any growth they want...military, infrastructure...they are doing what japan did a few decades ago, buying up american business and realestate...the difference now is japan didnt have the economic engine long term to sustain its growth and expansion outside its borders...china does...

  10. #20
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    Re: China the next power?

    Quote Originally Posted by lpast View Post
    China is working feverishly to improve its military...it already has the economic structure, <thanks to us> to fuel any growth they want...military, infrastructure...they are doing what japan did a few decades ago, buying up american business and realestate...the difference now is japan didnt have the economic engine long term to sustain its growth and expansion outside its borders...china does...
    Yes, but the Chinese military is still dominated by men and more men.. and not by expensive technology, hence the several million men under arms by China are far far cheaper than the US military. Hence the Chinese economy, which is booming, can easily absorb the cost and even higher cost, where as the US is having problems. Like it or not, the US military is hugely expensive compared to what you get out of it.
    PeteEU

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