I'd say it's probably a 55% Obama / 45% Romney toss up at this point, with a margin of error of 5%.
Undecideds tend to jump to the challenger. However, Romney is very unpopular with his base. However, there's a large anti-incumbant mentality across the board. However, incumbants have numerous inherent advantages. However, the fervor in Obama's base that swept him into office in '08 has largely died down. However, election season is just ramping up. However, the economy is hardly good right now. However, news reports are coming out constantly trying to convince people it got better (cue monty python voice).
I just think this things too close to call at this point and I wouldn't be shocked if either win by a small or relatively solid margin. If there was a true landslide, in terms of popular vote and electorate count similar to during the Reagan years, THEN I'd be shocked.
The Zombie Corpse of Ronald Reagan could probalby suck some independent and conservative votes away from Romney as well.
Considering the Zombie Corpse of Ronald Reagan has stated about as much intent to run third party as Ron Paul, it's probably just as relevant to bring up in a thread.
Glad to know you're apparently a Romney voter though. I'll be sure to use your happy participation in claiming what the chances are of Romney winning in this thread as proof that you're a Romney backer