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JohnWOlin said:
Obama has a few advantages over Romney at this point:

-Obama is a war-time President
-Obama currently has the vast majority of minority likely voters, and this trend hasn't really been bucked at any point the past year
-Obama has a bigger war chest
-The economy has improved
-Osama bin Laden dead when he is president
-Wants to raise taxes on the rich

Things going aginst Obama:
-He is black
-THe economy hasn't improved like most had hoped
-Added more short term spending
-Wants to raise taxes on the rich, Republicans spend a lot of time and money trying to convince people they are either getting higher taxes too, or that taxing the rich will somehow personally hurt them


I think however, he has the best chance out of the two with a win similar to the 96 election.
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Also that report is talking about the cost of the healthcare bill until 2022. The initial estimate was covering from 2010 to 2012--the first two years far more money is spent in a short time to implement it than is spent in ten years after 2012.
 
I think Obama will likely win. Romney is just too much like Clark Griswold.
 
leftofabbie said:
It sure isn't perfect, but then perfection is the enemy of progress. Here's a few of the benefits...

-No more denial of claims after paying premiums for decades

-No more denial of health insurance for PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS

-Coverage for your kids until 26 years old

-Free health checkup every 6 mopnths

-Free preventative health screening procedures for cancer and heart like mammograms, colonoscopies etc.

-Lower seniors' prescription-drug prices by beginning to close the donut hole.

-no lifetime caps anymore.

-most policies have no annual caps

And then there's this...

Health Plans Will Pay $1B Obamacare Rebate For Not Spending Enough On Care - Forbes


That's a tidy billion dollars in the hands of Americans instead of for-profit insurance investors in London, Tokyo and Hong Kong.

Personally, I advocate Medicare for All.
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granted, but this compromise bill is fatally flawed in that it fails to address the fact that health care is an essential service with inelastic demand. given this, it seems highly unlikely that three levels of for-profit companies between the patient and the health care solution will ever perform cost effectively.

if PPACA fails, though, it's as much or more the fault of the other side, who refused to even consider proposals which might have actually had a chance at success. a public option was the minimal solution that could have had a chance to do anything positive. the better course of action might have been to break off a few items of the bill (like pre-existing conditions, etc), pass those components, and then ditch the rest until the American people wake up and realize that many of them are going to go bankrupt if their kid breaks an arm. if that happens enough, eventually people will see just how flawed our delivery system really is.

i don't blame Obama for anything other than setting the goalposts too far to the right from the very beginning. UHC should have been the firm initial offer. from there, we might have at least ended up with a public option.
 
cpwill said:
It seems to me ya'll are placing alot more emphasis on the debates vice the conditions on the ground than we are. Wonder why that is.
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Because people like you can twist the situation on the ground to your liking, so instead of talking about real things, we have to waste all our time countering your baseless arguments.
 
Americans believe obama will win by a huge margin, and democrats are happier with obama, then republicans are with Romney. Having said that...this is the silly season for wildly swinging polls

By a 56% to 36% margin, Americans think Barack Obama rather than Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. This is the case even though voters' preferences are evenly divided between the two candidates.


Gallup.Com - Daily News, Polls, Public Opinion on Politics, Economy, Wellbeing, and World
 
leftofabbie said:
-No more denial of claims after paying premiums for decades
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Gov't dictating the market. If companies deny claims to people it's either A) For a good reason or B) The company sucks. What happens when a company sucks? They go under. In addition, doctors are kinda like Special Forces service members. You can't crank out more of them in a time of need. There is a process. Well, guess what. A time of need is coming if Obamacare goes into effect. It will equal LONG waits and horrible, fast food like service.

leftofabbie said:
-No more denial of health insurance for PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS
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Again, gov't dicatating the market. A company should not be made to take on a client. A company should not HAVE to take on a guy who has been smoking for 40 years and has cancer. I don't advocate leaving the dude in the ditch, but, I especially don't advocate the gov't telling someone to cover the guy.

leftofabbie said:
-Coverage for your kids until 26 years old
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Are they really kids that long? 26? That's ridiculous.

leftofabbie said:
-Free health checkup every 6 mopnths
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No, it's not free. Someone has to pay for it. Guess who does that? The 54% of taxpayers who pay income tax.

leftofabbie said:
-Free preventative health screening procedures for cancer and heart like mammograms, colonoscopies etc.
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See above
leftofabbie said:
And then there's this...

Health Plans Will Pay $1B Obamacare Rebate For Not Spending Enough On Care - Forbes


That's a tidy billion dollars in the hands of Americans instead of for-profit insurance investors in London, Tokyo and Hong Kong.

Personally, I advocate Medicare for All.
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Sorry bro, the math ain't adding up. 1 billion coming in for over a trillion going out just doesn't work. I don't care who's math you are using.
Take it from someone who knows. I have been under Tricare (military insurance) for my entire adult life. It sucks. Having to search through doctors to see who takes your insurance, dealing with military hospitals where you wait in upwards of 10 hours for a simple ER visit. Getting pills thrown at you for everything instead of the doctor actually telling you how to fix stuff. Underskilled surgeons who hack you up when you go under the knife. It's a nightmare. Not to mention all of the countries around the world that have shown the example of what socialized medicine does. It's never worked. We should allow health insurance to be bought by the individual, just like car insurance. Seems to work good for them.
 
I'm with Redress and Boo on this. I'm pretty sure Obama will win, but it's a long time until election day.
 
ThePlayDrive said:
Assuming "conditions on the ground" mean things like unemployment and the economy, the answer is simple. The debates allow Americans to see who can best address "conditions on the ground." Considering that an election is a competition to see who can best address those "conditions," then it makes sense to see those as a pivotal part of the election process. The conditions, in and of themselves, aren't going to win an election. Convincing the public that you'll do something positive with them will.
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I know I am not supposed to be posting on this thread as I am not going to be an Obama voter, but you are correct about the debates being a pivotal point in elections. Close ones anyway. Carter was either not losing by much or in some polls even ahead until the debate with Reagan. When Bush was running against Dukakis, he had a marginal lead until Dukakis blew the debate against Bush. Bush took a solid lead after that and never looked back. GWB may have very well lost the 2000 election against Gore, but Gore underperformed in all of the debates which kept GWB in the election and ultimately winning it. There are many examples of debates which have shaped the outcome of the election.
 
RadicalModerate said:
Do you really think that matters? It wasn't really an issue for the mainstream in 08, why would it be an issue after he's been in office for four years?
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Four years is a lot of time for negative press to marinade in its juices.
 
While I agree about both not being good for America. I also see more republicans and conservative coming to the poles in full force just to oust Obama. I honestly think it will come down to which side has more voters show up.
 
Right now, I think it depends on what decisions Obama makes before the election. At the top of that list would be to flip Biden and Clinton. If that happens, I feel more confident abotu a November victory for the Dems. Without it, maybe 50/50 especially if Romney picks Rubio as his VP.
 
haymarket said:
Right now, I think it depends on what decisions Obama makes before the election. At the top of that list would be to flip Biden and Clinton. If that happens, I feel more confident abotu a November victory for the Dems. Without it, maybe 50/50 especially if Romney picks Rubio as his VP.
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Flip Biden and Clinton? Huh, never heard that theory. He does need to get rid of Biden. The dude is a walking sound bite lol. Clinton wouldn't take the VP spot though. She wants to run in '16. That's just my opinion though.
I don't know if Rubio is going to take the VP or not. I don't think he will. I think he is also looking to run in '16. I don't think the conservative base believes Romney is going to win.
 
Toss up...it comes down to the economy and there's so many things that could cause problems from Europe to those numbskulls on Wall Street losing in a big bet.
 
FreedomFromAll said:
While the President has their purpose and power, what really matters is who is in Congress.
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Couldn't agree more. President Obama can be re-elected but it won't matter if the Democrats lose the Senate. I believe they are dangerously close to doing that. While some of the "Tea Party" candidates elected into the House have been underwhelming (the debt ceiling cave in comes to mind), I believe people are willing to keep with what we have in the House and see what a Republican heavy legislative looks like. The Dems in the Senate are entirely too comfortable IMO. Harry Reid needs to go as the Senate majority leader. The guy acts like he's just got done running 10 miles everytime you see him. His woe is me, we work so hard up here act is getting old.
 
MarineTpartier said:
Couldn't agree more. President Obama can be re-elected but it won't matter if the Democrats lose the Senate. I believe they are dangerously close to doing that. While some of the "Tea Party" candidates elected into the House have been underwhelming (the debt ceiling cave in comes to mind), I believe people are willing to keep with what we have in the House and see what a Republican heavy legislative looks like. The Dems in the Senate are entirely too comfortable IMO. Harry Reid needs to go as the Senate majority leader. The guy acts like he's just got done running 10 miles everytime you see him. His woe is me, we work so hard up here act is getting old.
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I think the debt ceiling thing as a whole hurt the "tea party" brand. Being so unwilling to compromise that they would rather have our country not pay our bills was not good.
 
Redress said:
Well, an ad saying we had turned the corner would probably be pretty clearly false. Saying things are improving as opposed to getting worse, that would be accurate. Can you link to what you have heard on ad polling?
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yes - www.cpwill-is-pretty-sure-he-heard-...n-show-in-the-background-not-too-long-ago.com

it's pretty much an unimpeachable source :mrgreen:

Things are improving. That is factual. I am not going to make any prediction about Europe, neither you nor I know nor can predict accurately what will happen there.
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I don't know that things are improving - when more people are dropping out of the workforce alltogether than are getting jobs... I have a hard time selling that to myself as "gaining ground" if we are even holding steady :(. And it's going to get worse. Dammit. I'm not one for saying "deserve" or "entitle"... but people deserve better than this.

I base mine in part on betting odds which have Obama at 59.1 % to win re-election. Also looking at electoral maps.
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I dunno. I've been saying for some time that I think lots of "safe" Obama states such as Wisconsin might be in play. And now people are starting to realize it. I think this is going to be a depressed base election, and one base is significantly more excited than the other (which admittedly is easier to be when one is the opposition).
 
cpwill said:
yes - www.cpwill-is-pretty-sure-he-heard-...n-show-in-the-background-not-too-long-ago.com

it's pretty much an unimpeachable source :mrgreen:



I don't know that things are improving - when more people are dropping out of the workforce alltogether than are getting jobs... I have a hard time selling that to myself as "gaining ground" if we are even holding steady :(. And it's going to get worse. Dammit. I'm not one for saying "deserve" or "entitle"... but people deserve better than this.



I dunno. I've been saying for some time that I think lots of "safe" Obama states such as Wisconsin might be in play. And now people are starting to realize it. I think this is going to be a depressed base election, and one base is significantly more excited than the other (which admittedly is easier to be when one is the opposition).
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I don't see how people are going to be excited about Romney.
 
Thorgasm said:
I don't see how people are going to be excited about Romney.
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they aren't. But the conservative base is excited about firing President Obama. More so, I think, than the Democrat base is excited about reelecting him.
 
cpwill said:
yes - www.cpwill-is-pretty-sure-he-heard-that-on-some-television-show-in-the-background-not-too-long-ago.com

it's pretty much an unimpeachable source :mrgreen:



I don't know that things are improving - when more people are dropping out of the workforce alltogether than are getting jobs... I have a hard time selling that to myself as "gaining ground" if we are even holding steady :(. And it's going to get worse. Dammit. I'm not one for saying "deserve" or "entitle"... but people deserve better than this.



I dunno. I've been saying for some time that I think lots of "safe" Obama states such as Wisconsin might be in play. And now people are starting to realize it. I think this is going to be a depressed base election, and one base is significantly more excited than the other (which admittedly is easier to be when one is the opposition).
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You get a like for the amusing link.

Polls this far out are basically meaningless, I am not worried much about Wisconsin where a lot of things are going on. I would bet on it settling down.

If you have a hard time telling yourself things are getting better, you are blinding yourself with partisanship. The economy is growing where it was not for awhile. Employment is slowly improving, where it was rapidly getting worse.
 
Employment is improving more because people are getting discouraged and dropping out all together. Hard to sell that as a win. Economy improving? Growth is anemic, and may not even exist, once you take into account real inflation that includes the pocket-book expenses of food and energy. I would suspect that the only people who think that the economy is really getting that much better are those who are looking for it to. And Europe's problems have only just begun; that will be a slug we take to the face some time over the summer/fall.

But Obama should be cleaning up in Wisconsin. I'm going to hold to my prediction that Walker wins the recall and that puts Wisconsin in play in November.
 
cpwill said:
they aren't. But the conservative base is excited about firing President Obama. More so, I think, than the Democrat base is excited about reelecting him.
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I wouldve thought that too...but all the polls say the opposite that obamas base is more excited about him than romneys....by all the polls I mean rasmussen and gallup
 
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