When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events, what

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Paschendale said:

But I find it a little creepy when people sound gleeful about the end of the world, or at least the collapse of civilization. That would suck. .... Probably every one of us on this board would die. And probably everyone we've ever met. Even the folks like Goshin with the cowboy fantasies. !

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Bud, if you can find one single quote where I seriously say something gleeful about the possible collapse of civilization, I'll donate to DP in your name.

I'm hoping it DOESN'T happen. Yeah, I'm probably better prepared than 99%, but it would still SUCK. I'm an experienced man and I know there are no guarantees, and that all incoming bullets are marked "to whom it may concern", and that the people I love are not immune to bullets, starvation or other hazards of TEOTWAWKI.

I prefer civilization thank you very much.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

When foreigners star to panic and dump the dollar, the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events, like gasoline being $8 a gallon, and low value compact cars costing $100,000, what are you going to say?

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I'm betting a asteroid the size of Brazil will land in the Pacific before that happens.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

When foreigners star to panic and dump the dollar, the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events, like gasoline being $8 a gallon, and low value compact cars costing $100,000, what are you going to say?

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Most likely, "If you're not looking to help out then get the hell away from my property. Only people who can pull their own weight live here and I don't give a **** about your needs or my capacity to feed you."

Paschendale said:

I would probably just say a four letter expletive that begins with "f".

But I find it a little creepy when people sound gleeful about the end of the world, or at least the collapse of civilization. That would suck. No amount of feeling smug about why it happened would change the fact that a lot of people would die. How many people require medication to remain healthy? How many people in hospitals would survive the lack of power? How many people living in any kind of urban environment, or out in the desert in the west, would have access to enough food and water? How many people would freeze? There is nothing good that can come from such a wide scale disaster. Probably every one of us on this board would die. And probably everyone we've ever met. Even the folks like Goshin with the cowboy fantasies. It is our technology and our science that makes us live better than the middle ages.

For f#$^'s sake... WE WOULD ALL RUN OUT OF TOILET PAPER REALLY QUICKLY!! I don't care what it takes to prevent us from having to crap in a bucket and wipe with a towel and then have to wash that towel, I want that thing done. Anything to keep the toilets running and the paper stocked. Let's focus on the real priorities!

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Who, aside from religious nutjobs who clamor for an Apocalypse and the return of their god, has expressed gleeful anticipation in discussing a doomsday/collapse scenario?

I don't even think Doomsday Preppers want to resort to their preparations.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

It don't take very many troops to "push down the uprising of students", which doesn't exist.

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Except it's not just students. It's also laborers, who aren't enjoying the fruits of modernization as much as others. This has led to a faction in the Chinese Communist Party known as the Chinese New Left, which seeks to halt the capitalistic surge of the People's Republic of China and instead reintroduce more socialistic programs in the country, especially community-based ones in the rural areas of China.

One of these members of the Chinese New Left is Bo Xilai. He was a high-ranking political member of the PRC, but he was a factor in the Wang Lijun Incident. Wang's political career was closely tied to that of Bo's rise in the PRC. Wang was being investigated for possible corruption and, seeking asylum, visited the U.S. consulate and was debriefed. This debriefing revealed schism within the Chinese Communist Party.

Bo then suffered a downfall of his career and as government and party officials deliberated, the Chinese micro-blogging community speculated wildly, even furthering rumors of a coup. This led the PRC to increase their censorship of the internet to prohibit further speculation on these decisive matters.

Explanations of it can be found at the following links.

Bo Xilai - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Wang Lijun incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So thousands of micro-bloggers aren't "a few" students. Neither is a major political official.

Matt Foley said:

Hey, I have an idea, talk about something that actually happens, or at the very least stay on topic.

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You mean like all the micro-bloggers that have been talking about the corruption of the PRC government so much that the CCP had to shut down internet access and now the Chinese people have to talk about such things in code?

Top Chinese Twitter-like site shuts down user accounts for political rumors | ITworld

China?s bloggers talk politics using code - Taipei Times

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

samsmart said:

Except it's not just students. It's also laborers, who aren't enjoying the fruits of modernization as much as others.

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oooookay It don't take very many troops to "push down the uprising of students + laborers", which doesn't exist. (especially when it's illegal to own weapons, forgot that bit.)

This has led to a faction in the Chinese Communist Party known as the Chinese New Left, which seeks to halt the capitalistic surge of the People's Republic of China and instead reintroduce more socialistic programs in the country, especially community-based ones in the rural areas of China.

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Uhuh

One of these members of the Chinese New Left is Bo Xilai. He was a high-ranking political member of the PRC, but he was a factor in the Wang Lijun Incident. Wang's political career was closely tied to that of Bo's rise in the PRC. Wang was being investigated for possible corruption and, seeking asylum, visited the U.S. consulate and was debriefed. This debriefing revealed schism within the Chinese Communist Party.

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uhuh

Bo then suffered a downfall of his career and as government and party officials deliberated, the Chinese micro-blogging community speculated wildly, even furthering rumors of a coup. This led the PRC to increase their censorship of the internet to prohibit further speculation on these decisive matters.

Explanations of it can be found at the following links.

Bo Xilai - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Wang Lijun incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So thousands of micro-bloggers aren't "a few" students. Neither is a major political official.

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uhuh

You mean like all the micro-bloggers that have been talking about the corruption of the PRC government so much that the CCP had to shut down internet access and now the Chinese people have to talk about such things in code?

Top Chinese Twitter-like site shuts down user accounts for political rumors | ITworld

China?s bloggers talk politics using code - Taipei Times

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uhuh

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

When foreigners star to panic and dump the dollar, the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events, like gasoline being $8 a gallon, and low value compact cars costing $100,000, what are you going to say?

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Foreigners panic? Why should they panic when they are the biggest financier of U.S. debts - abt $1 trillion. Its the U.S who is gonna be pannicky. So the question is does U.S. have a Plan B if China dumps U.S. dollars.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

oooookay It don't take very many troops to "push down the uprising of students + laborers", which doesn't exist. (especially when it's illegal to own weapons, forgot that bit.)



Uhuh



uhuh



uhuh





uhuh

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And I've provided links backing up my claims and you've provided no support for yours.

So I still win out in the end.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

samsmart said:

And I've provided links backing up my claims and you've provided no support for yours.

So I still win out in the end.

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yeeeaaaaah, well you know China is a Communist country that bans it's citizens from owning any weapons whatsoever. The only hope you have for a regime change is a Boris Yeltsin type of deal so unless you are an expert on Chinese culture/religion/history where you have the pulse of the Chinese Army you can't really say.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

RDS said:

Foreigners panic? Why should they panic when they are the biggest financier of U.S. debts - abt $1 trillion. Its the U.S who is gonna be pannicky. So the question is does U.S. have a Plan B if China dumps U.S. dollars.

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It's in China's best interest to keep the dollar afloat (while simultaneously devaluing their currency).

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

I don't think the dollar will collapse like some Hollywood disaster movie. But by the time our debt builds to the point the rest of the world is tired of us 'leading' our military will be a shell. With a few exceptions our naval ship building ability is shot, our ships are old, and if we continue down the debt road to maintain a 'strong' military like 'conservatives' want soon we will need bake sales for bombers.

When the rest of the world gets tired of our sass they will show us just how much fun being dictated to is. We enjoy forcing the rest of the world to toe some austerity line, our turn will not be tasty. The pain will be felt by all because when the dollar is devalued, even those who sit in haughty judgement of the nanny staters will be in a soupline. Stocks rarely pay a living wage in dividends these days, the value in the stock price is what rewards CEOs, not the payout each quarter. Fake fortunes will be lost and only true negotiable hard assets will have value. You own 1,000 shares of Google/Honeywell/Hathaway??? You own 100 pounds of gold??? BFD, I own 1,000 rounds of 7.62 and 50 head of cattle, guess your shoveling sh*t for me...

While I am getting cynical in my old age, mostly due to reading about the collapse of other world powers in their turn, the USofA will continue, China did after the fall of their Emperor, it is just internationals will dictate to us what we will do and how we will do it.

Where to place the blame? I don't know, maybe when we stopped being citizens and started being consumers demanding choice and cheap. When CEO's stopped being statemen capitalists and became stock price centric. When capitalism over rode democracy and the greater good became the greater greed. When 'from many, one' was replaced by 51% is a mandate.

Perhaps it is nothing more than all good things do come to an end.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

yeeeaaaaah, well you know China is a Communist country that bans it's citizens from owning any weapons whatsoever. The only hope you have for a regime change is a Boris Yeltsin type of deal so unless you are an expert on Chinese culture/religion/history where you have the pulse of the Chinese Army you can't really say.

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You mean from members of the CCP who are part of the New Chinese Left who may get the support from the Red Chinese Army by getting legitimacy from the students and laborers who are critical of the current government system?

Like I pointed out before? With evidence?

So it's still more likely than the PRC sending a quarter of a million troops into Taiwan and causing major international incidents and possibly military conflict since they are facing their own economic problems, as well as internal political divisions, in both the masses and their government leaders.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

samsmart said:

You mean from members of the CCP who are part of the New Chinese Left who may get the support from the Red Chinese Army by getting legitimacy from the students and laborers who are critical of the current government system?

Like I pointed out before? With evidence?

So it's still more likely than the PRC sending a quarter of a million troops into Taiwan and causing major international incidents and possibly military conflict since they are facing their own economic problems, as well as internal political divisions, in both the masses and their government leaders.

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Well what better way to unite a country and fix economic problems that to invade new territory.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

Well what better way to unite a country and fix economic problems that to invade new territory.

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Invading a new territory doesn't unite a country or fix economic problems.

And a better way to unite a country and fix economic problems would be to initiate political and economic reforms.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

watched Mad max enough times by now to know what to do!

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Higgins86 said:

watched Mad max enough times by now to know what to do!

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Cut a hole in the backside of your jeans and hang a rag out of it so you always have something to wipe with?

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

samsmart said:

Invading a new territory doesn't unite a country or fix economic problems.

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Uh, yes it does.

And China isn't having "economic problems".

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

Uh, yes it does.

And China isn't having "economic problems".

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At this point, I'm not sure if you're ignorant or trying to be a poe.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

samsmart said:

At this point, I'm not sure if you're ignorant or trying to be a poe.

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People don't notice if they are in poverty or rich, all they notice is if their standard of living is increasing or decreasing no matter how slow, and I have no idea what a poe is.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

People don't notice if they are in poverty or rich, all they notice is if their standard of living is increasing or decreasing no matter how slow, and I have no idea what a poe is.

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Okay then. In that case...

Well, China is certainly having economic problems. For one, it's people have an insane savings rate. Individual Chinese people tend to save about 1/3 of their income. This is because they want to have that money on hand for medical bills and other unanticipated expenses. But what this is doing is preventing the PRC from developing a consumer economy like other developed nations have.

The biggest problem, though, is that the quasi-capitalist system isn't working all throughout China. While the coastal areas, which is where the factories and modernization has been concentrated at, the rural interior is getting left behind. This is what the Chinese New Left, which I described earlier in this thread, is push for a return to more socialist values - because the regional economic differences are becoming greater and greater.

And, yes, the Chinese people are well aware of these differences. The cheap labor in the factories in the coastal areas come from the rural interior. And they go back to visit their families during the week of the Chinese New Year. So that back and forth between the rural areas and the industrialized areas means the Chinese people are well capable of comparing and contrasting the disparities.

And even if the Chinese people themselves didn't know, a cynic could argue that the political elites would ensure that they did so they could agitate the people to grant them more political power. Do most political leaders of the CCP benefit from keeping the status quo? Yes, indeed they do.

But there are also political leaders of the CCP who would benefit from upsetting the status quo as well. Such as Bo Xilai and his other members of the Chinese New Left.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

samsmart said:

Okay then. In that case...

Well, China is certainly having economic problems. For one, it's people have an insane savings rate. Individual Chinese people tend to save about 1/3 of their income. This is because they want to have that money on hand for medical bills and other unanticipated expenses. But what this is doing is preventing the PRC from developing a consumer economy like other developed nations have.

The biggest problem, though, is that the quasi-capitalist system isn't working all throughout China. While the coastal areas, which is where the factories and modernization has been concentrated at, the rural interior is getting left behind. This is what the Chinese New Left, which I described earlier in this thread, is push for a return to more socialist values - because the regional economic differences are becoming greater and greater.

And, yes, the Chinese people are well aware of these differences. The cheap labor in the factories in the coastal areas come from the rural interior. And they go back to visit their families during the week of the Chinese New Year. So that back and forth between the rural areas and the industrialized areas means the Chinese people are well capable of comparing and contrasting the disparities.

And even if the Chinese people themselves didn't know, a cynic could argue that the political elites would ensure that they did so they could agitate the people to grant them more political power. Do most political leaders of the CCP benefit from keeping the status quo? Yes, indeed they do.

But there are also political leaders of the CCP who would benefit from upsetting the status quo as well. Such as Bo Xilai and his other members of the Chinese New Left.

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It's quite an ingenious system where there is a tightly controlled social ladder to climb, with the government controlling the areas where there is no ladder to climb and a little more looser restrictions in the zones where the socially ladder could be climbed with great effort. This way you could divide your people up into 2 areas: the overly ambitious and the not so ambitious. And if the overly ambitious get politically ambitious you can always count on the far more populated areas of the not so ambitious.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

It's quite an ingenious system where there is a tightly controlled social ladder to climb, with the government controlling the areas where there is no ladder to climb and a little more looser restrictions in the zones where the socially ladder could be climbed with great effort. This way you could divide your people up into 2 areas: the overly ambitious and the not so ambitious. And if the overly ambitious get politically ambitious you can always count on the far more populated areas of the not so ambitious.

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Ummm, no.

Even though the PRC is a one-party system doesn't mean the CCP is a monolith. There are divisions now in the CCP and there have in the past been divisions in the CCP. Just look up the history of Deng Xiaoping and how his faction's push for reform was fought against by those who wanted to stick to Mao's dogma even after his death.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

samsmart said:

Even though the PRC is a one-party system doesn't mean the CCP is a monolith.

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mmmm, so even though it's a one-party system, it's not really a one-party system.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Matt Foley said:

mmmm, so even though it's a one-party system, it's not really a one-party system.

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Ummmm, no.

It is, indeed, a one-party system, as the CCP ensures that only members of the CCP has any sway.

But because of that the CCP is, unofficially at least, much more diverse.

Imagine that the Republican Party is the only party allowed in the U.S. That doesn't mean that those who hold the values of the Democratic Party - environmental regulations, labor rights, public services, etc. - don't have a say in government. Rather, it means that they have to hold those values while members of the Republican Party, and they are their own faction within it.

The fewer parties there are in a government system, the more diverse they must inherently be. After all, in the Republican Party we have a faction that focuses on religious values and a separate faction that focuses on libertarian ideals. Many times, those factions fight with each other despite being of the same party.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

samsmart said:

Okay then. In that case...

Well, China is certainly having economic problems. For one, it's people have an insane savings rate. Individual Chinese people tend to save about 1/3 of their income. This is because they want to have that money on hand for medical bills and other unanticipated expenses. But what this is doing is preventing the PRC from developing a consumer economy like other developed nations have.

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All developing countries with high growth have high savings rates. Take a look at India, their savings rate are 35% of GDP. Indians are not that famous for saving. What these figures are not taking into account is the black market. I can tell you by living in China, the hidden economy is massive. So lets say the hidden economy is 100% of GDP or 50% of real GDP. Then savings rate are not higher than 15-20%. Also remember that China is a very investment lead country. That is why they have high growth. To have investment, then you need to save up money. I am not saying China is not too dependant on investments, but you need to broaden your view.

The biggest problem, though, is that the quasi-capitalist system isn't working all throughout China. While the coastal areas, which is where the factories and modernization has been concentrated at, the rural interior is getting left behind. This is what the Chinese New Left, which I described earlier in this thread, is push for a return to more socialist values - because the regional economic differences are becoming greater and greater.

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Look, if you want revolution, then you need the whole country. If you only have a minority of the population, living in a segregated area, then you won't get very far. Another point is, most farmers have no possibility of revolution. Many of them have never left their village. These are not people who will rise up, or cause any problems for the communist party. At worst they will take back their village.

They will get pretty much no support from the cities. This is not 1990. People in the cities are a lot more supportive of the Communist Party. They will not support a revolution led by west of China.

And, yes, the Chinese people are well aware of these differences. The cheap labor in the factories in the coastal areas come from the rural interior. And they go back to visit their families during the week of the Chinese New Year. So that back and forth between the rural areas and the industrialized areas means the Chinese people are well capable of comparing and contrasting the disparities.

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Are you kidding me? Most Chinese who live in the cities, was raised in the cities and have their family in their cities. They don't go back to the countryside to celebrate Chinese New Year.

When I was in China, I hardly met anyone who hated China. I only met one person who talked negative about China, (he told me how to get across the Chinese firewall). He didn't look like the kind of guy who would fight the Chinese government though. Uprisings happen when the majority hate the government. If not, it is not going to happen. Reality is, China had much more trouble in the 1990s, and if it didn't happen then, it won't happen now. You seem to hope there will be a socialist revolution, but people in the cities know about the terrible conditions in the past, they also hear about the terrible conditions in North Korea. They want to preserve status quo, they want to keep growing like now.

Re: When the dollar crashes, setting off a spireling out of control chain of events,

Camlon said:

All developing countries with high growth have high savings rates. Take a look at India, their savings rate are 35% of GDP. Indians are not that famous for saving. What these figures are not taking into account is the black market. I can tell you by living in China, the hidden economy is massive. So lets say the hidden economy is 100% of GDP or 50% of real GDP. Then savings rate are not higher than 15-20%. Also remember that China is a very investment lead country. That is why they have high growth. To have investment, then you need to save up money. I am not saying China is not too dependant on investments, but you need to broaden your view.


Look, if you want revolution, then you need the whole country. If you only have a minority of the population, living in a segregated area, then you won't get very far. Another point is, most farmers have no possibility of revolution. Many of them have never left their village. These are not people who will rise up, or cause any problems for the communist party. At worst they will take back their village.

They will get pretty much no support from the cities. This is not 1990. People in the cities are a lot more supportive of the Communist Party. They will not support a revolution led by west of China.


Are you kidding me? Most Chinese who live in the cities, was raised in the cities and have their family in their cities. They don't go back to the countryside to celebrate Chinese New Year.

When I was in China, I hardly met anyone who hated China. I only met one person who talked negative about China, (he told me how to get across the Chinese firewall). He didn't look like the kind of guy who would fight the Chinese government though. Uprisings happen when the majority hate the government. If not, it is not going to happen. Reality is, China had much more trouble in the 1990s, and if it didn't happen then, it won't happen now. You seem to hope there will be a socialist revolution, but people in the cities know about the terrible conditions in the past, they also hear about the terrible conditions in North Korea. They want to preserve status quo, they want to keep growing like now.

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1) The high savings rate is actually getting some Chinese people de facto negative interests. That is they are paying to have the Chinese banks keep and lend their money. This is lasting for now, but who knows how long it can.

2) The PRC government actually wants to slow growth because the kind of growth they've been focusing on is unsustainable. They have built what are called "ghost cities" - huge cities with transportation infrastructure that has nobody living in them. I believe that one problem with these ghost cities is that they were built with a certain level of income that many Chinese people don't have - very similar to the U.S. foreclosure market.

3) I'm not saying that the Chinese people saving so much of their income is a bad thing. I'm just pointing out that the government leaders are pushing for less of it so they can develop a consumer economy. They are having problems with this, though, because the Chinese are so used to saving.

4) I never said I wanted a revolution. I said that there is dissent and agitation as the Chinese people are pushing for reform. But even such reform is quashed down by the PRC's security forces. And the resources spent on those security forces are resources that can't be used for foreign military campaigns.

5) Even the emerging middle class want reforms in China. Too many children of party and government leaders have been getting special treatment, especially when they break the law. There was one incident of the son of a local party leader killing someone while driving drunk. He said that nothing could be done because his father was so important. Word of this spread throughout China's blogosphere. So the middle class are just as agitated about corruption as those in rural areas are agitated that they are not prospering.

6) An example of this is Chen Guangcheng. He is a blind advocate of China's handicapped and disabled and speaks out against the government's use of the one-child policy to selectively abort and sterilize people. He is not a revolutionary who wants to bring down the PRC or the CCP. Rather, he wants the PRC government to follow the very laws they make. He, like many other Chinese, want reform, not revolution.

7) There are political leaders in the PRC and the CCP who will use this call for reform in order to gain their own popular support as they pursue political power. So because there are support for these reforms by groups of people, there are politicians who will take that support and advocate for them.