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Is intelligent Design a scientific theory?

Is intelligent Design a scientific theory?

  • Yes

    Votes: 3 4.7%
  • no

    Votes: 61 95.3%

  • Total voters
    64
Well actually it does, because you're measuring the wrong thing. Rather than ask the question "What is the probability that life forms in our universe?" the real question is "What is the probability that life forms in a universe in which I'm around to pose this question?" And of course for the latter question, the probability is 1.

Of course... physicists and mathematicians everywhere are all wrong. Uh huh.
 
gravity is not fully understood.

Newton believed that it was merely a force between all things with mass, but Einstein showed us that it is really a bend in space-time caused by all things with mass.

That's my point, thank you. If something as basic and observable as gravity is not fully understood, nothing is.
 
Of course... physicists and mathematicians everywhere are all wrong. Uh huh.

Umm it's called the Anthropic Principle, and it's pretty much a universal rule of thumb used by physicists...

In astrophysics and cosmology, the anthropic principle is the philosophical consideration that observations of the physical Universe must be compatible with the conscious life that observes it.

Are you suggesting that the probability that life forms in a universe in which you're around to observe it is something LESS than 1? :confused:
 
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Umm it's called the Anthropic Principle, and it's pretty much a universal rule of thumb used by physicists...

I'll re-post it since you apparently missed it.

Are the Odds Against the Origin of Life Too Great to Accept? (Addendum B to Review of David Foster's The Philosophical Scientists)

Rule of thumb? Physicists now use a "rule of thumb"... good to know. Let me add... I'm not interested at all.. in the Anthropic Principle rule of thumb. I'm much more interested in the math... but I certainly can understand why you wouldn't want to discuss the math and would want to change the subject to something else.
 
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tecoyah said:
I am forced to agree here...science does not have an end game, and is instead a never ending quest for answers. To state the process goes backward, is to make it clear you misunderstand the work.

This seems tantamount to admitting that science is wholly false...which doesn't seem like a claim that someone would want to make. If there is no end game, there is no truth that science can discern (unless you mean something different than I understand by "end game")--there must at best be quasi-proximate models. And the problem with that line, of course, is that those models might be close to the truth, or they might simply work according to social acceptable norms, essentially fooling us into thinking them "close enough."

I'm aware that some people take this line. I just find it a little perplexing. It seems that someone who really thought this would be quite intellectually humble (David Hume on his deathbed comes to mind). But rather often, I find proponents of such theories speaking as if they're certain of something that isn't a merely logical truth.
 

I didn't read that entire 50+ page document nor do I plan to do so, but from the bits that I read (including the conclusion), it would appear that the author does not agree with you that life was impossible to form by chance anyway. From your source:

Conclusion
There is still the same, single, fundamental problem with all these statistical calculations, one that I mention in my review of Foster: no one knows what the first life was. People like Morowitz can try to calculate what is, at a minimum, possible, and laboratory experiments, like that which discovered the powers of tetrahymena (see Addenda C), can approach a guess, but these guesses still do not count as knowledge, and it is not sound to claim that simply because we don't know what it was, therefore we can't assume there was such a simple life form. And even if we accept such an argument, to go from there to "god" is essentially a god-of-the-gaps argument.

Rule of thumb? Physicists now use a "rule of thumb"... good to know.

It sounds like you have some irrational hostility toward science, so I suspect that merely pointing out the errors in your argument will do nothing to change your mind.
 
Redress said:
Relativity is two theories, not one. That would be factual error number 1.

I suppose depending on how you dice it, it could be several theories. But I would agree that special relativity was the result of the 1905 paper, general relativity the result of the 1916 paper.

Redress said:
You refer to 1905, so one would assume you are referring to "special relativity". The Paper On The Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies was not a theory, but a pair of postulates and then a look at what would result from them. The postulates where based on the current observations of the time. Therefore it was science. They where testable, therefore they where science. So your first point fails a miserable death.

Really? It doesn't seem so to me. My interlocutor wasn't saying anything about testability; he was talking about testing (i.e. practice, not conceptual) and basing propositions on observations. My point was twofold:

1) Plenty of science originates from untested propositions.

2) Other disciplines do testing and revision all the time; if that's what's supposed to distinguish science, it doesn't do a very good job.

Anyway, before we continue, you seem to have the idea that I'm somehow anti-science. This is not correct. I have a great deal of respect for science. I am very critical of certain interpretations of science, however, and I believe I have good reason to be.

With that out of the way, let's discuss this

The Paper On The Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies was not a theory, but a pair of postulates and then a look at what would result from them. The postulates where based on the current observations of the time.

a little more carefully.

First, I'm not sure I understand why you'd say special relativity isn't a theory (at least here, though you seem to say that it is elsewhere). But that aside, those two postulates were not determined by the available observations. By that, I just mean that the available observations didn't make the postulates inevitable (indeed, how could they?). Before the experiments that are taken to confirm relativity occurred, it was just as likely (and was in fact proposed) that the MM aparatus was faulty. Or that the properties of the aethyr were not sufficiently understood. Or even that the data was falsified, or etc.

Einstein revived Galileo's proposition of relative inertial frames, and mixed in the notion that light in a vaccuum has an absolute velocity. From there, as you note, he deduced what might be observed. But just what role can deduction, which is entirely independent of observation, play in science? If it is to play a role, it seems perforce that philosophy plays a role in science. Since my initial point was simply that science is much more difficult to distinguish from other areas than most people believe, this is a relevant point.

Further, if all it takes for something to be science is to be "based on" observations, then of course special relativity was science. But then, so is a lot of stuff that I bet you wouldn't want to see counted as science. For instance, was Locke's philosophy of mind, "based on" the notion of the mind as Tabula Rasa at birth which was in turn "based on" the best available observations science? I suspect you'd probably think not. But how is that case distinguishable from relativity in principle? If you're going to try to define science, you'll have to do better than this.

redress said:
You repeat the same error in your second point. Theories do not leap out full cloth, there is a process to become a theory.

Where did I say otherwise?

Redress said:
Just because something is not yet a theory does not mean it is not part of science. If you make one or more hypothesis based on observation that can be tested and falsified, that is what we call the scientific method. That is, it is science.

Again, this seems either to be false, or to include too much.

Redress said:
Your whole post reads of stealing from an anti-science site designed to confuse those who have no clue about science. It is flat out nonsense.

Well, I came up with all of it, and didn't visit any websites to find it. I did spend about ten years in undergraduate and graduate courses at reputable and accredited universities in the U.S., several of which were devoted to the practice, history, and philosophy of science, from which I managed to distill most of my views. In any case, I made no similar remarks to my interlocutors; your words here are rather insulting.

Redress said:
You completely fail to understand the scientific process. A hypothesis is built from observation.

What does that even mean? How do you build something from observation? It seems rather that we build hypotheses from symbols which encode interpretations of observations. Which goes to my point about Quine-Duhem.

Redress said:
That is inaccurate due to your failed understanding of the scientific process. In fact, rather than going back and tearing each section of your post apart by repeating the same thing

This approach hardly seems fruitful. I might just as easily lambast your entire post, and we could just exchange that way. But what would be exchanged? Certainly not ideas, and it'd hardly be a debate. So I can hardly credit this tactic. And I don't think the moon landing was faked.
 
That's my point, thank you. If something as basic and observable as gravity is not fully understood, nothing is.

that's a very stupid thing to say.

because we don't fully understand gravity, that means we have no understanding of anything whatsoever?

that's a very convenient theory for you, as it allows you to disregard any science you don't like.
 
I didn't read that entire 50+ page document nor do I plan to do so, but from the bits that I read (including the conclusion), it would appear that the author does not agree with you that life was impossible to form by chance anyway. From your source:
So you skip to the summary without understanding the context, and make the wrong judgement. :lol: Serves me right for trying.

It sounds like you have some irrational hostility toward science, so I suspect that merely pointing out the errors in your argument will do nothing to change your mind.
Oh is this the accusation portion of the discussion already? It sounds to me like you don't want to discuss the math. :shrug:
 
Simon W. Moon said:
I am not sure if you have missed my point or if I have missed yours.
But these comments don't seem connected to what I meant.

I am trying to say that if there's not even a hypothetical test for a hypothesis that could conceivable show that the hypothesis is incorrect, then the hypothesis is not a scientific one.

And I was saying that what amounts to a conceivable test rests largely on the sorts of assumptions we accept as valid.

Simon W. Moon said:
Given that God could be the Ultimate Trickster and hide/delete all evidence of his existence, there is not a possible test which could disprove the existence of God. At best a lack of corroboration would only mean that God didn't want us to find w/e we were looking for because of His own inscrutable reasons.

I guess my point was whether this really could, or should, be given. I don't know of very many people who are proposing that kind of God.

Simon W. Moon said:
I don't see gravity as being an analog for that at all. Gravity and various other things are not capable of the same reality-bending as the omniscient, omnipotent, and omnipresent God.

Not an exact analog, no. It was merely a device to point out that we can, and do, test meta-properties. We might not be able to see or directly detect God (if one exists), but we might well be able to detect some effect that can only, or best, be explained by reference to some special entity.

Simon W. Moon said:
I am not trying argue about our limits of perception and deduction, rather I am concerned about the nebulous ineffability of "God".

Well, just what makes God nebulous and ineffable if not our own limits? I can hear the obvious reply: "Well, how about the nebulous ineffability of God?". But it has to be acknowledged that if our powers of perception and deduction were strong enough, that wouldn't matter.

Simon W. Moon said:
It doesn't seem that a numinous ineffability with omniscience, omnipotence, and omnipresence can be very modeled very well by human minds.

First, it should be pointed out that this was a set of properties concocted by Anselm, a monk and later Archbishop who probably didn't have access to the entire corpus of the JudeoChristian tradition or scripture at the time he formulated the ontological argument. He was just sitting around thinking about what would be God, in his opinion. Unfortunately, his idea gained extraordinary influence on western thought, thanks to a variety of accidents of history.

I rather prefer, if we're going to talk about God, to either consider the Gods directly experienced by mystics and prophets, or possibly the thing designated by a particular version of the cosmological argument.

Simon W. Moon said:
It doesn't seem that it would be necessarily true that what is true for the minds we're familiar with, our own, would need to be true for a "mind" which is essentially limitless in scope.

Well...I mostly agree, but I would propose a couple of caveats, and I think those make some difference. First, we have to mean something reasonably definite when we use the term "mind." We're talking about something that has percepts, thinks thoughts (however exalted), and has motives (however inscrutable to us). Second, whether we could fathom those or other aspects of such a mind is a different question from whether we could detect their existence. Motives that are accompanied by actions leave a signature in all but a single kind of case.

Now God might have a radically different nature, as you say. But if it's radical enough, does it really have a mind? Not in the way in which we mean the term.
 
So you skip to the summary

No one is going to read your entire long document, and you know that fully well. The only reason you posted it at all was so you could say "read the document lol" instead of actually thinking about the topic and discussing it.

And if skipping to the conclusion gives me the OPPOSITE conclusion of this guy's point, then it sounds like he's just a piss-poor writer. Or, more likely, you just failed to understand what he said.

without understanding the context, and make the wrong judgement. :lol: Serves me right for trying.

It seems that in every single paragraph, the author cites the astronomically-high probabilities other people have estimated, puts them in their proper context, and then explains why they are either wrong, irrelevant, or taken out of context. Nowhere in this essay do I see anything remotely resembling the author agreeing with you that life was too improbable to form by chance...quite the opposite. But maybe I'm missing it, so please cite a paragraph or two (not 500 of them) from this document that support your point.

Oh is this the accusation portion of the discussion already? It sounds to me like you don't want to discuss the math. :shrug:

The math is quite simple. The probability that life forms in a universe in which observers exist to contemplate it is 1. By definition. No life in the universe, no observers.
 
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The math is quite simple. The probability that life forms in a universe in which observers exist to contemplate it is 1. By definition. No life in the universe, no observers.
Sure it's not 4... how about pi? :lamo

Funny stuff dude...
 
As I suspected. Carry on then. :2wave:

You suspect nothing... you don't know what you're talking about so I'm ridiculing you.

Educate yourself... look up Hoyle's work on life probability. Just a side note, it's not 1. :lol:

As stated by Drs. Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, “the trouble is that there are about two thousand enzymes, and the chance of obtaining them all in a random trial is only one part in (10 20) 2000 = 10 40,000, which is an outrageously small probability that could not be faced even if the whole universe consisted of organic soup.“3 This is about the same chance as throwing an uninterrupted sequence of 50,000 sixes with a pair of dice.

Have fun with your 1.
 
that's a very stupid thing to say.

because we don't fully understand gravity, that means we have no understanding of anything whatsoever?

that's a very convenient theory for you, as it allows you to disregard any science you don't like.

Just when I thought we had a convergence of minds, LOL.
 
You suspect nothing... you don't know what you're talking about so I'm ridiculing you.

Educate yourself... look up Hoyle's work on life probability. Just a side note, it's not 1. :lol:

That quote is talking about something completely different, and ignores the "givens" which change the probability. For example, what's the probability of rolling a 6 on a 6-sided die? 1/6. What's the probability of rolling on a 6 on a 6-sided die GIVEN that you roll an even number? 1/3. The additional information changes the probability.

It's the same thing for the universe and life. What's the probability that self-replicating entities form in the universe? Arguably very low. What's the probability that self-replicating entities form in the universe, GIVEN that the universe is home to conscious forms of life who observe it? 100%. The additional information changes the probability.

Also, I love how the website which YOU CITED specifically refutes Hoyle...by name. :lamo

Your own source said:
Fred Hoyle and N.C. Wickramasinghe

The most commonly cited source for statistical impossibility of the origin of life comes from another odd book, Evolution From Space, written by Fred Hoyle and N.C. Wickramasinghe (Dent, 1981; immediately reprinted by Simon & Schuster that same year, under the title Evolution From Space: A Theory of Cosmic Creationism). The statistic 10^40,000 is calculated on p. 24 (Hoyle repeats the exact same argument on pp. 16-17 of The Intelligent Universe (1983)). A twenty-amino-acid polypeptide must chain in precisely the right order for it to fit the corresponding enzyme. Although Hoyle does not state it, this would entail that there must have been a minimum specificity, of one specific possibility, for the first enzymic life, of 10^20, a value to which Hoyle himself says "by itself, this small probability could be faced" (and this statistic even fails to account for that fact that any number of "first enzymic organisms" are possible, and not just one as his calculation assumes). Hoyle then goes on: "the trouble is that there are about two thousand enzymes," (in "the whole of biology," p. 23), "and the chance of obtaining them all in a random trial is only one part in (10^20)^2000 = 10^40,000..."

There are three flaws in this conclusion: he assumes (1) that natural selection is equivalent to random shuffling, (2) that all two thousand enzymes, all the enzymes used in the whole of biology, had to be hit upon at once in one giant pull of the cosmic slot machine, and (3) that life began requiring complex enzymes working in concert. As for (1), I address this mistaken idea throughout my critique of Foster. To put it in a nutshell, natural selection is not random, but selective, a distinction that is not trivial (a point made by Sagan above). As for (2), Hoyle leads his readers to believe that every living organism requires or uses all two thousand enzymes, but he leaves himself an out, for when he claims this, he uses the words "for the most part" (p. 23). In other words, some life, probably the simplest, uses less. Since biologists consider all present life to be far more advanced than early life, even if all presently living organisms required two thousand enzymes it would not follow that the first life did. It almost certainly did not. As for this point and (3), see Addenda C. For a good introduction, with numerous recommended readings, on the current state of the science of biochemical origins, see Massimo Pigliucci's "Where Do We Come From?" in the Skeptical Inquirer (September/October 1999)

Have fun with your 1.

News flash: I'm a lot smarter than you. And since you cannot seem to grasp basic principles of logic and statistics (whether because you intentionally want to remain ignorant or because you simply don't have the brainpower for it), I see no reason to continue this discussion.
 
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You suspect nothing... you don't know what you're talking about so I'm ridiculing you.

Educate yourself... look up Hoyle's work on life probability. Just a side note, it's not 1. :lol:



Have fun with your 1.

You do know Hoyle and Wickramsinghe are panspermists, not creationists, right?
 
That quote is talking about something completely different, and ignores the "givens" which change the probability. For example, what's the probability of rolling a 6 on a 6-sided die? 1/6. What's the probability of rolling on a 6 on a 6-sided die GIVEN that you roll an even number? 1/3. The additional information changes the probability.
And please show me, where it ignores the givens.

It's the same thing for the universe and life. What's the probability that self-replicating entities form in the universe? Arguably very low.
But not 1?

What's the probability that self-replicating entities form in the universe, GIVEN that the universe is home to conscious forms of life who observe it? 100%. The additional information changes the probability.
Changing the question to fit your problem, doesn't equate your pre-made result. :roll:

News flash: I'm a lot smarter than you. And since you cannot seem to grasp basic principles of logic and statistics (whether because you intentionally want to remain ignorant or because you simply don't have the brainpower for it), I see no reason to continue this discussion.
Of course, your the king mutha****ing genius... yet you're now discussing MY question instead of me discussing your irrelevant question.

Yeah, much smarter. :lamo
 
And please show me, where it ignores the givens.

Sigh. Your OWN LINK refutes Hoyle's numbers. Did you even bother to read any of it before you posted it? Because it pretty much makes exactly the opposite point that you think it does.

Changing the question to fit your problem, doesn't equate your pre-made result. :roll:

In order to make the best estimation of probability, you should include all known information. So for example, if you knew for a fact that I rolled an even number on a 6-sided die, then the probability that I rolled a 6 is 1/3, not 1/6. Similarly, if you know for a fact that there are observers in our universe, then the probability that life forms in such a universe is 100%, not some astronomically small number.

Of course, your the king mutha****ing genius... yet you're now discussing MY question instead of me discussing your irrelevant question.

Yeah, much smarter. :lamo

Ya. You don't understand probability (I think they teach it in 6th grade?), logic (usually in high school or freshman semester of college?), or even your own source (reading comprehension is something they start teaching you in 1st grade). As such, I am forced to reach the conclusion that you are an ignoramus. :2wave:
 
You do know Hoyle and Wickramsinghe are panspermists, not creationists, right?

Are you saying that because their views are life came from space, their math is biased?
 
Sigh. Your OWN LINK refutes Hoyle's numbers. Did you even bother to read any of it before you posted it? Because it pretty much makes exactly the opposite point that you think it does.
It refutes the process and assumptions, but not the math. Surely someone so much more intelligent than I could discern the difference.

In order to make the best estimation of probability, you should include all known information.
Show me where all known information WASN'T used?

Ya. You don't understand probability (I think they teach it in 6th grade?), logic (usually in high school or freshman semester of college?), or even your own source (reading comprehension is something they start teaching you in 1st grade). As such, I am forced to reach the conclusion that you are an ignoramus. :2wave:
Ya, you're overwhelming sense of superiority is based in a magazine article you read once and a college course you skimmed through, possibly by cheating or maybe hiring someone to write your paper for you. It's nice to know such a snobbish opinion based on nothing and refuting nothing can be so sincere and yet so arrogantly insipid. When you get an education smart guy, let me know.

BTW... you made it SOOO easy. It was very sweet ... thank you Mr. News Flash I'm so much smarter than you. :lamo
 
No is winning... 45 to 0... didn't expect result

I don't see how anybody could define Intelligent Design as part of science, it just spiritual explanation as why evolution occurs or exists. Science and religion doesn't conflict, so I don't have a problem with people merging it as long as they aren't dismissing actual science or making themselves ignorant about science.
 
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