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Will a finding of the HC mandate as unconstitutional hurt Obama's re-election?

Will a finding of the HC mandate as unconstitutional hurt Obama's re-election?


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Kal'Stang

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Will a finding of the HC mandate as unconstitutional hurt Obama's relection?

I think this is a valid question. One that even experts in the political field may ask themselves. Yeah I'm sure that Republicans hope that it does and Democrats hope that it won't. But in all honesty will it?
 
Will a finding of the HC mandate as unconstitutional hurt Obama's relection?
I don't think it will. It will give him an issue with good timing to run with. I think the Republican solution will have to be explained in more detail since it will be understood that the Republicans don't want the Romney/Obama solution. If SCOTUS allows it to pass in full then the Republicans can 'explain' how bad it's going to be and that will be harder for Obama to run against.
 
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The entire 4 years in office should be something that would hurt his re-election chances. But then enter the GOP of 2012.... Can't see how this is going to do much since the GOP cannot mount serious competition on one of the most failed administrations in the history of the U.S.
 
If, big IF, the mandate is found unConstitutional, Republicans will be expected to have a solution to the havoc that will cause. They don't have one. If they did, it'd be out there.
 
It depends. My gut says no, but anything could happen.
 
Absolutely it will hurt Obamas reelection chances. To quote Biden, "This is a BFD" and so will it be if it's found unconstitutional. Obama will be snake bit, it will be a political hay maker as this law was his crown jewel. Couple that with Obamas supposed Harvard Constitutional Professor pedigree and it's devastating. Outside of the pure politics it will also put states and employers into flux as they have billions of dollars already spent on a law that has been either defunded or invalidated. Now Congress has to quickly close the gap temporarily while gearing up to have the entire fight all over again next session regardless who is President. I certainly find entertaining the Obi-One Kenobi spin that claims striking Obamacare will only make it stronger for Obama. They have no idea the depth of darkness Congress has or are purposely ignoring in an attempt to control the narrative.
 
yes, it will hurt his chances of reelection ( how much it will hurt is up in the air)

having the crown jewel of your administrations policymaking struck down by the supreme court( while you maintain to be a constitutional scholar) is not good.

can Obama spin his way out of most of the negative aspects of having it killed?.. sure, I think he is sufficiently skilled in campaign politics to make a viable attempt to do so.


and no, the GOP will have no expectation to come up with an alternative... simple " we'll have an open debate on the issue and determine the proper, and constitutional, way to go" rhetoric will cover them on that front ( an alternative would be better ,though)
and they do have alternatives... to say they do not is false.
 
Absolutely it will hurt Obamas reelection chances. To quote Biden, "This is a BFD" and so will it be if it's found unconstitutional. Obama will be snake bit, it will be a political hay maker as this law was his crown jewel. Couple that with Obamas supposed Harvard Constitutional Professor pedigree and it's devastating. Outside of the pure politics it will also put states and employers into flux as they have billions of dollars already spent on a law that has been either defunded or invalidated. Now Congress has to quickly close the gap temporarily while gearing up to have the entire fight all over again next session regardless who is President. I certainly find entertaining the Obi-One Kenobi spin that claims striking Obamacare will only make it stronger for Obama. They have no idea the depth of darkness Congress has or are purposely ignoring in an attempt to control the narrative.
The voters that matter will not care about "... put states and employers into flux as they have billions of dollars already spent on a law that has been either defunded or invalidated." And it is a BFD, both ways though. And by the time SCOTUS comes out w/ its decision Congress won't matter in influencing the election.
 
Will a finding of the HC mandate as unconstitutional hurt Obama's relection?

I think this is a valid question. One that even experts in the political field may ask themselves. Yeah I'm sure that Republicans hope that it does and Democrats hope that it won't. But in all honesty will it?


I think it is will not hurt Obama at all. Obama with the help of other liberal democrats did what many of their voters wanted them to do.
 
The voters that matter will not care about "... put states and employers into flux as they have billions of dollars already spent on a law that has been either defunded or invalidated." And it is a BFD, both ways though.
No doubt it's a BFD either way..... either we cross the Rubicon and the United States is no longer the bastion of independence and freedom any longer, or not IMO.

And by the time SCOTUS comes out w/ its decision Congress won't matter in influencing the election.]

You're kidding right? The decision comes out in June... that's 5 months worth of hay for Republicans to make, and they will make it.
 
I think it is will not hurt Obama at all. Obama with the help of other liberal democrats did what many of their voters wanted them to do.

It won't hurt Democrats voting for Obama no... of course not. Will it hurt with independents? Yes I think so... somewhat. Will it hurt with Republicans who hate Romney who most likely will be the RNC candidate for 2012? No, it will actually provide some small light at the end of the tunnel that Obama may actually be beaten by Mr. Mitt Stiff Neck.
 
If, big IF, the mandate is found unConstitutional, Republicans will be expected to have a solution to the havoc that will cause.

Why would it cause "havoc"? It's not in effect yet.
 
Why would it cause "havoc"? It's not in effect yet.

Because of the other provision in Obamacare that says one cannot be turned down for pre-existing conditions. That means nobody has to get insurance until they get sick. That's not what insurance is about...there's no way a program could be solvent without charging astronomical premiums to those who do pay (well beyond what their risk is) to compensate for that.
 
You're kidding right? The decision comes out in June... that's 5 months worth of hay for Republicans to make, and they will make it.
Nope. If the decision is the mandate is out then the republicans were correct, it was unconstitutional. But now what is your solution Republicans?
I guess we'll see.
 
Because of the other provision in Obamacare that says one cannot be turned down for pre-existing conditions. That means nobody has to get insurance until they get sick. That's not what insurance is about...there's no way a program could be solvent without charging astronomical premiums to those who do pay (well beyond what their risk is) to compensate for that.

But none of that has taken effect. There needn't be any havoc.

Plus, there's a fair-to-middling suggestion that the entire law may be struck down, not just the mandate.
 
Nope. If the decision is the mandate is out then the republicans were correct, it was unconstitutional. But now what is your solution Republicans?
I guess we'll see.
My solution is irrelevant. Romney's solution is to repeal Obama Care fully. If the SCOTUS does that for him, it's up to him to provide an alternative and lets face it, there are a lot of alternatives some of which have been proposed since ObamaCare was first put out.

5 months of pounding on Barack "The Constitutional Scholar from Harvard" Obama, on his unconstitutional crown jewel law. Keep telling yourself it's no loss... I love the "it will only make him stronger" narrative.
 
Nope. If the decision is the mandate is out then the republicans were correct, it was unconstitutional. But now what is your solution Republicans?
I guess we'll see.


the better question is... why don't you know about the GOP "solutions" already?... they are out there for public consumption
 
Will a finding of the HC mandate as unconstitutional hurt Obama's relection?

I think this is a valid question. One that even experts in the political field may ask themselves. Yeah I'm sure that Republicans hope that it does and Democrats hope that it won't. But in all honesty will it?

So much of the answer is in stuff that is unpredicatable. How much will it motivate the base? How will it affect swing voters? How will it effect conservatives? Will it even happen? Will the rest of the law be thrown out? I suspect, maybe, that if just the mandate is thrown out it would maybe be a small negative for obama. If the whole thing is thrown out, a small positive for obama. I do not think it will have a dramatic effect on the election.
 
it will definately hurt him,especially if the republicans hammer that message into every debate and ad,but looking now at the republican batch this year hurting obama isnt going to be enough to win,they would need obama to make some major screwups between now and election time to hurt obama enough to lose,whereas obama could just walk up on stage and pull out an etch n sketch and romney really cant defend against it:2razz:
 
the better question is... why don't you know about the GOP "solutions" already?... they are out there for public consumption
I listen to the Republicans but they spend most of their time berating the Obama plan and when they talk about their plan they use these words: easier, promotes, helps, tax credit, flexibility, rewards, encourages, incentives, etc. without any mechanisms given except that the government will not be doing it, private companies will start doing it if we let them. Just like we are doing now.
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/GOPHealthPlan_061709.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
 
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No. It wont hurt cuz Obama already has this in the bag. Just look at the Republican field..
 
I don't think it's easy to predict how it would affect the election. If it's overturned (in whole or in part), it's possible that Democrats would be demoralized and be less likely to show up to vote for Obama. On the other hand, it would give Obama the opportunity to (plausibly) make the point over and over again that Republican lawyers succeeded in taking health insurance away from little kids, kicking sick people off the insurance rolls, bringing back preexisting conditions, taking subsidies away from those who can't afford health insurance, etc. If he can pull that off it might energize his base and drive independents toward him.

One thing I don't expect is for the ruling to have much effect on Republican turnout, no matter which way it goes. There are two reasons for this: 1) Mitt Romney, the architect of Obamacare, will be at the top of their ticket; and 2) Despite the frenzy into which they've whipped themselves, Republican opposition is driven more by short-term partisan posturing than it is by any serious ideological problems with the Affordable Care Act.
 
Wait...Romney is the "architect of Obamacare"? He wasn't even in Congress or the Senate. He wrote absolutely nothing in that bill.
 
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