Allow me to fill in some other interesting predictions that use the same logic:
"Iran will never send members of its' military to Iraq and Afghanistan to Kill Americans, because it knows that the US Military would respond in kind."
"Iran would never plan to assassinate a Saudi Arabian Ambassador on US Soil because it knows that the backlash would be too great."
"Iran would never claim wiping Israel off the face of the planet as an intention because it knows that it lacks the capability and would lose international good will for doing so."
What in the world makes you think that Iranian leadership believes that they would receive a nuclear response if Israel was wiped out in a successful First Strike that could be successfully pinned on a proxy such as, (say) Hezbollah? Do you really think that the US would nuke Iran? That Obama would nuke Iran post facto? Yeesh, and they say that neocons are always imposing their cultural assuptions on others.
When you think of how Iranians view foreigners, think about a pack of wolves. When we try to negotiate and offer compromise, they interpret that as us turning over on our back and offering our belly. It demonstrates to them that they are A) justified in what they are doing and B) therefore need not worry about response from us. We are, after all, too weak and afraid to wish to do anything. That is why they stopped their development (and it is why Libya gave up its WMD's alltogether) after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and started it up again after the development of a major anti-war movement here in the States. They perceive that we lack the will to stop them.
I would hope so - it's just that I see no evidence whatsoever to support that claim, and plenty that argues against it.However, don't kid yourself. Obama will blast these guys into the stone age if necessary.