Brokered/Open Convention?

I think this has been asked before and we all, myself included agreed it was very unlikely. However we now have reached the point where republicans are talking about it as a real possibility. With all the states with proportional delegates and the seesaw nature of the election so far, it does look possible. How likely do you think a brokered or open republican convention is at this point?

Re: Brokered/Open Converntion?

If Romney wins Michigan and Arizona- the die is cast. If not, this could be very very interesting.

Re: Brokered/Open Converntion?

Redress said:

I think this has been asked before and we all, myself included agreed it was very unlikely. However we now have reached the point where republicans are talking about it as a real possibility. With all the states with proportional delegates and the seesaw nature of the election so far, it does look possible. How likely do you think a brokered or open republican convention is at this point?

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Is a converntion anything like a convention for people with funny accents?

Re: Brokered/Open Converntion?

Redress said:

I think this has been asked before and we all, myself included agreed it was very unlikely. However we now have reached the point where republicans are talking about it as a real possibility. With all the states with proportional delegates and the seesaw nature of the election so far, it does look possible. How likely do you think a brokered or open republican convention is at this point?

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It's the last thing they want. Except for a few crazies, no Republican wants to risk this election.

Re: Brokered/Open Converntion?

megaprogman said:

Is a converntion anything like a convention for people with funny accents?

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I don't have any idea what you are talking about.

Oh, and I hate you.

Re: Brokered/Open Converntion?

A convention would be brokered for only a couple of reasons. The most likely reason in any primary race would be that there are 2 strong candidates who have a strong loyal base of support and there is no clear winner. They are close enough to be evenly divided and then it goes to a showdown. In this particular case, its not so much a loyal base of support but an anti establishment vote within the party. The reason being that the establishment is moving away from its own voting base and attempting to push through a candidate which is too liberal for the views and wishes of enough voters. IMO, because of this, if it gets deep into spring and Romney has not been able to close the deal, he is not likely to win anyway. If it was a case of the more likely scenario, the two sides would still be more likely to back the eventual winner in the convention. In this case, the conservative base is likely to not back the liberal establishment candidate. I would rather see a brokered convention because that will lay the groundwork to gut the establishment and set the GOP back in line with conservatism. Or, it would lay the groundwork for a conservative breakaway to form its own conservative party. I am fine with either.











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Re: Brokered/Open Converntion?

I'd say its still unlikely but the chances are higher than they were at the start of the primary season. Romney continues to be unable to close the deal and the base has clearly shown they don't want him to be the nominee. Santorum is the latest flavor of the month, but can he endure a marathon campaign? I wouldn't count Gingrich dead just yet. He needs a strong debate performance, and since the focus will be on Romeny/Santorum now, he won't be on defense tomorrow, which is where he seems to struggle. Gingrich should be free to go offensive and maybe score some points to get back into things. If he doesn't do well in the debate tomorrow, he's pretty much done. Paul is in it for the long haul and continues to wisely focus on caucus states where he can put his organization and dedicated following to best use.

So if Romney continues to face strong opposition from Santorum and/or Gingrich and Paul continues to plod along, grabbing delegates from caucus states, it is possible there could be a brokered convention. The smart money is still on Romney, since he has the money and the organization to go the distance. But the fact that he can't put away Santorum or Gingrich so far, despite their obvious flaws, shows his own weakness as a candidate.

Redress said:

I think this has been asked before and we all, myself included agreed it was very unlikely. However we now have reached the point where republicans are talking about it as a real possibility. With all the states with proportional delegates and the seesaw nature of the election so far, it does look possible. How likely do you think a brokered or open republican convention is at this point?

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The only way that the convention could be brokered is if you have at least a 3-way split in the delegates. As long as it's just Romney versus Santorum, eventually one of them will get a majority. You need a third candidate who is actually capable of winning states. This could happen if Gingrich surges again...or if the primary devolves into regional factions, with Santorum winning the Midwestern states, Gingrich winning the Southern states, and Romney winning the Western states and New England.

Alternatively, it could be brokered if there is a late-entering candidate. If Santorum trounces Romney in the coming weeks, the establishment is going to go ape**** (as well they should) for fear that nominating a dangerous extremist will not only cost them the White House but will cost them some down-ticket congressional seats too. If it looks like Romney can't win, there could be a last-minute push for someone else to get into the race, which could result in a brokered convention if the new entry is able to win most of the late-voting states but not enough to get a majority of the delegates.

In any case, a brokered convention would make me positively giddy. It would essentially be taking a pass on the election and allowing Obama to run unopposed. There is no way that anyone who emerged from a brokered convention (especially if they weren't already running in the primaries) would have time to build a campaign organization, study all the issues and develop a platform, and raise enough money to compete with Obama. Barring a truly epic economic collapse, I think the election will be over before it starts if the Republicans have a brokered convention.

"Rove doubted a late entry would even happen, calling it “as remote as having life on Pluto.” Joe Trippi predicted a “trainwreck” if it actually happened, which he thought was incredibly likely in this race. Strassel asked who the GOP “savior” would be. Rove and Wallace went down a list of names, which shows even if a late candidate did emerge, there might still not be enough to satisfy voters."

ROVEstradamus: Chances of a GOP late entry / brokered convention "as remote as having life on Pluto" - Democratic Underground

Its really looking like I'm not voting. AGAIN! I didn't vote for "Moderate McCain" and doesn't look like I'm voting for "Moderate Mitt" either. One day, maybe, a real candidate will pop up. As it is, looks like Obama's getting another 4. Romney can't even beat a Bilbo Baggens clone who wants to live on the moon, a "team player" who references beastiality, and somebody's drunk uncle that came up for air from the basement. If he can't beat them, how's he gonna beat a dude who plays basketball, sings Al Green, and smokes? I mean, if anything, Obama will win on cool points. Apparently that's all it takes in this age of Kardashians and Shoreites.

MarineTpartier said:

Its really looking like I'm not voting. AGAIN! I didn't vote for "Moderate McCain" and doesn't look like I'm voting for "Moderate Mitt" either. One day, maybe, a real candidate will pop up. As it is, looks like Obama's getting another 4. Romney can't even beat a Bilbo Baggens clone who wants to live on the moon, a "team player" who references beastiality, and somebody's drunk uncle that came up for air from the basement. If he can't beat them, how's he gonna beat a dude who plays basketball, sings Al Green, and smokes? I mean, if anything, Obama will win on cool points. Apparently that's all it takes in this age of Kardashians and Shoreites.

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I'd urge you to find a third party to vote for. Yeah, its pretty much the same as not voting in terms of outcome, but it sends a message, even if it is a small one. If you don't vote, politicians write you off as an apathetic non-voter who doesn't care. Obviously that's not true in your case. Voting for a third party, even if it doesn't perfectly align with your views, is way to make your displeasure with both mainstream candidates known.

Psychoclown said:

I'd urge you to find a third party to vote for. Yeah, its pretty much the same as not voting in terms of outcome, but it sends a message, even if it is a small one. If you don't vote, politicians write you off as an apathetic non-voter who doesn't care. Obviously that's not true in your case. Voting for a third party, even if it doesn't perfectly align with your views, is way to make your displeasure with both mainstream candidates known.

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I've been looking for 3rd party candidates. Its very hard for me to find a candidate I like because I am in agreeance with the libertarian party on everything except their beliefs on abortion. I believe abortion is something that should be against the law and most libertarians believe that should be left up to the states or individuals. Personally, I have a hard time with someone who is pro-life but proposes they put their head in the sand and allow abortions to happen. I have found one so far, RJ Harris, that is running and shares my belief. However, I haven't personally vetted him yet so I don't know.

MarineTpartier said:

I've been looking for 3rd party candidates. Its very hard for me to find a candidate I like because I am in agreeance with the libertarian party on everything except their beliefs on abortion. I believe abortion is something that should be against the law and most libertarians believe that should be left up to the states or individuals. Personally, I have a hard time with someone who is pro-life but proposes they put their head in the sand and allow abortions to happen. I have found one so far, RJ Harris, that is running and shares my belief. However, I haven't personally vetted him yet so I don't know.

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It may surprise you (I was when I found out) that murder is generally not a federal crime, but something that is handled by the states. An interesting article on the subject: On abortion, Ron Paul is pro-constitution | NJ.com

In any case, Paul's stance on abortion is at least a step in the right direction. He might view the repeal of Roe v. Wade as an end, rather than a means to an end (as you do), but that doesn't mean you can't support him up to that point.

Black_Zawisza said:

It may surprise you (I was when I found out) that murder is generally not a federal crime, but something that is handled by the states. An interesting article on the subject: On abortion, Ron Paul is pro-constitution | NJ.com

In any case, Paul's stance on abortion is at least a step in the right direction. He might view the repeal of Roe v. Wade as an end, rather than a means to an end (as you do), but that doesn't mean you can't support him up to that point.

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It is handled by the states, that is true. However, if a murder occured and a state did not decide to prosecute, I'm sure the Federal gov't would find a way to make it stick by opening the death penalty up (which opens a wealth of stipulations as opposed to without the death penalty).Federal Laws Providing for the Death Penalty | Death Penalty Information Center
Paul is pro-life, personally. I heard his story of how he came to be pro-life too. Very grisly and very sad. However, I personally don't like his approach on it. I am pro small gov't, pro non-interventionalist. I just don't think anyone should be that way regarding abortion. Its the one subject I want the Federal gov't involved in. That and the border.

If super Tuesday goes badly for Mitt Romney it's a distinct possibility.