2012: Bear, Bull, or Flat?

This time last year, everyone was falling over themselves to predict 3.5% growth in GDP. Now, here we are, with anemic growth and a flatlined S&P 500.

SO

Next year: will the market recover? Flatline? or will we slip into a double dip?

Is it still a bear market when there's nothing left to lose? We're going to pull an Iceland.

I'm awaiting hyperinflation

Some bearish movements, some bullish movements, but overall I expect it to be quite flat with little growth

Hard to really categorize. The biggest problem is the economy is rudderless right now, some investors are going for the cash infused stimulus market, others are running because of the new regulations of Dodd/Frank, and people still don't know what else is coming so trading is all over the map. For that reason I have to go with flat, I think 2012 is going to be gains negated by loss pretty much the way 2011 shook out.

jasonxe said:

I'm awaiting hyperinflation

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You have no idea how badly I hope you are wrong. However if things continue hyperinflation is almost certain.

Bull!!

LaMidRighter said:

Hard to really categorize. The biggest problem is the economy is rudderless right now, some investors are going for the cash infused stimulus market, others are running because of the new regulations of Dodd/Frank, and people still don't know what else is coming so trading is all over the map. For that reason I have to go with flat, I think 2012 is going to be gains negated by loss pretty much the way 2011 shook out.

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I agree. The so-called "experts" all say that with high percentage growth, renewed customer confidence, reducing bubbles, etc...., this year will be a good one, but then insert a bad week at the international markets, another meltdown at the eurozone, or debt trouble in the US and those same idiots will say that it is time for a double dip recession or even a depression.
My god, no wonder the markets are so volatile

Proud South Korean said:

I agree. The so-called "experts" all say that with high percentage growth, renewed customer confidence, reducing bubbles, etc...., this year will be a good one, but then insert a bad week at the international markets, another meltdown at the eurozone, or debt trouble in the US and those same idiots will say that it is time for a double dip recession or even a depression.
My god, no wonder the markets are so volatile

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Exactly. First off, anyone could have warned against investing in European interests with the volatility of a gaggle of countries that hate each other sharing a common currency. Secondly, we have got to stabalize the dollar; I am not a fan of the current Federal Reserve system and have argued for a hybrid stocks/commodities/hard asset backed currency. The paper standard will never cut it. Third, regulations aren't horrible if they are done only where needed and properly applied, the current situation only serves to choke off the market.

Another thing, I have a major problem with "self trade" sites like ScottTrade, E-Trade, etc. While I appreciate that they facilitate more entry into the market the problem is a lot of amateurs are in, they tend to panic more(not good) and are too close to their money. I've always said a broker is the best option, it may cost more but this is the guy who can say "don't trade yet, this stock will rebound" because they aren't the one risking. People who trade and handle their own stocks are likely to panic, with no one to talk them out of it or say "yeah, the stock is dry, dump it". Add that to the mix in a volatile market it's like a match to gasoline.

I think most of the bad has been shaken out, looking towards a low-moderate bull.

Harry Guerrilla said:

I think most of the bad has been shaken out, looking towards a low-moderate bull.

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I don't see it happening yet. I think there is still plenty of bad left. What would probably help more than anything is the Eurozone decentralizing currency and the U.S. consolidating in the stronger economies in the region after that.

LaMidRighter said:

You have no idea how badly I hope you are wrong. However if things continue hyperinflation is almost certain.

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Anarchist are praying for it i believe

jasonxe said:

Anarchist are praying for it i believe

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Oh jeez! If our currency hit hyperinflation it would definitely send shockwaves throughout the U.S. it would be an anarchists dream.

I think it will all depend on how the Euro and Japan go. Overseas financial uncertainty and/or outcome will dictate our markets in 2012. I think US (and global) markets need to continue to adjust values (lower) as I believe markets are over valued.

Baralis said:

I think it will all depend on how the Euro and Japan go. Overseas financial uncertainty and/or outcome will dictate our markets in 2012. I think US (and global) markets need to continue to adjust values (lower) as I believe markets are over valued.

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Whether our governments act globally or not I think we will see an adjusted lower value, we've been in a huge market reset since '06, the problem is the politicians in all of the major markets are refusing to accept that we are trending down to where the values are. Fighting the reset with inflation and stimulus programs are only prolonging the inevitable.

It's hard to really say as some markets will be bullish but overall it will be bear simply because of what is going on in China and Europe. Our actual recovery economically has been slowed down in large part due to those two regions. Not only that what the government will do with taxes and how they spend those tax dollars now more than usual will have a great impact on the market. I really do not see the market being bullish until 2016 at the earliest and the Federal Reserve has cited evidence that we likely won't see a full recovery economically until 2017.

JohnWOlin said:

It's hard to really say as some markets will be bullish but overall it will be bear simply because of what is going on in China and Europe. Our actual recovery economically has been slowed down in large part due to those two regions. Not only that what the government will do with taxes and how they spend those tax dollars now more than usual will have a great impact on the market. I really do not see the market being bullish until 2016 at the earliest and the Federal Reserve has cited evidence that we likely won't see a full recovery economically until 2017.

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I do not see where the gov't has done anything to create, stimulate, initiate, new jobs, industries or challenges. The paper shuffle of money to protect big institutions has worked to the detriment of the Nation and will continue to do so for the forseeable future. Money needs to be "put to work" to save this Nation. I don't see that happening. It's like the fiat money system is a "sticky trap."

DJ is up 5% in 2011. I expect this to continue, even with a small & short war with Iran.

The Great Recession is over, and the chances of a double-dip are almost nill.

$6.3tn wiped off markets in 2011 and Euro ends year as the worst performing major currency. Bearish for sure.