View Poll Results: Photo ID to vote?

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  • Yes

    82 66.13%
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    42 33.87%
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Thread: Photo ID to vote?

  1. #791
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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    Quote Originally Posted by teamosil View Post
    That isn't really a very systematic analysis. Indiana required a photo ID issued by the state, but not that it have your current address. So it's like half as bad, or maybe less, than the ones that are being proposed now that require your current address. Current address is really the biggest gotcha. So, maybe we'd expect something like 4% of people being disenfranchised? Not sure how you could definitively say whether such an effect happened or not just looking at the overall percentage and comparing states. States range from 49% turnout to 71% turnout... Who can say where Indiana would have been without the law.

    You need a proper study. One that controls different variables, looks at turnout between groups that are more likely to have already had an ID that meets their requirements vs groups that don't, etc. You can't really draw any conclusions based on this except that it didn't like reduce turnout by 20% or something, but nobody is claiming it would.
    Keep asking for a study when the numbers are right there in front of you. So you need someone to tell you 2+2=4 as well? It is simple if the national average is 56.9 and states with photo ID laws fall within that average, what is the effect of photo ID laws?

    It would be like the turnouts in Indiana and Georgia... negligible.
    Last edited by Black Dog; 01-17-12 at 02:22 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    Benjii likes the protests...he'd be largely irrelevant without them. So he needs to speak where he knows there will be protests against him and that makes him responsible for the protests.
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    You can successfully wipe your ass with toilet paper, that doesn't mean that you should.

  2. #792
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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackdog View Post
    Keep asking for a study when the numbers are right there in front of you. So you need someone to tell you 2+2=4 as well? It is simple if the national average is 56.9 and states with photo ID laws fall within that average, what is the effect of photo ID laws?
    That doesn't make sense at all. To know what effect the voter ID law had you would need to be able to make a reasonable guess what the turnout would have been without the law. 59% voted. Maybe without the law it would have been 71% like New Hampshire and the voter ID law knocked out 12% of voters. Maybe without the law it would have been 59% and it had no impact. No way to tell just from the turnout rate. You'd need a real study that controls for the other variables and whatnot... That isn't 2+2, that's sophisticated statistical and sociological analysis that needs doing. We're looking for a 3% deviation in a number that varies by 22% on it's own. That's not something you can just guess at.
    Last edited by teamosil; 01-17-12 at 02:33 AM.

  3. #793
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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackdog View Post
    Note that these data provide preliminary estimates of the turnout and voting-eligible population for the November, 2008 election. These statistics are updated continually as new data become available. Most recently, they have been updated for July 1, 2009 voting-age population estimates. - United States Elections Project

    Keep shucking and jiving, it's OK, lol.
    Since 2009:

    "New voting laws could make it significantly harder for more than five million eligible voters to cast ballots in 2012, according to the first comprehensive study of the laws’ impact."

    " * The states that have already cut back on voting rights will provide 171 electoral votes in 2012—63 percent of the 270 needed to win the presidency.

    * Of the 12 battleground states identified by an August Los Angeles Times analysis of Gallup polling, five have already cut back on voting rights (and may pass additional restrictive legislation), and two more are currently considering cutbacks."

    Study: New Voting Restrictions May Affect More than Five Million | Brennan Center for Justice
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

  4. #794
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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    Quote Originally Posted by teamosil View Post
    That doesn't make sense at all. To know what effect the voter ID law had you would need to be able to make a reasonable guess what the turnout would have been without the law. 59% voted. Maybe without the law it would have been 71% like New Hampshire and the voter ID law knocked out 12% of voters. Maybe without the law it would have been 59% and it had no impact. No way to tell just from the turnout rate. You'd need a real study that controls for the other variables and whatnot... That isn't 2+2, that's sophisticated statistical and sociological analysis that needs doing.
    No it is simple math using averages. More states without photo ID laws make up the average. You don't need a study to point out common sense numbers.

    In fact if you look at the averages from previous elections, turnout has gone up, not down even in photo ID states.

    Does not take a study, just a little common sense.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    Benjii likes the protests...he'd be largely irrelevant without them. So he needs to speak where he knows there will be protests against him and that makes him responsible for the protests.
    Quote Originally Posted by Absentglare View Post
    You can successfully wipe your ass with toilet paper, that doesn't mean that you should.

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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Since 2009:

    "New voting laws could make it significantly harder for more than five million eligible voters to cast ballots in 2012, according to the first comprehensive study of the laws’ impact."

    " * The states that have already cut back on voting rights will provide 171 electoral votes in 2012—63 percent of the 270 needed to win the presidency.

    * Of the 12 battleground states identified by an August Los Angeles Times analysis of Gallup polling, five have already cut back on voting rights (and may pass additional restrictive legislation), and two more are currently considering cutbacks."

    Study: New Voting Restrictions May Affect More than Five Million | Brennan Center for Justice
    And so they are still guessing when we have the actual number.

    Why don't you post this one more time. It may actually convince someone other than a liberal, but I doubt it.

    The Heritage Foundation, a conservative thinktank, disputed the methodology of the study of 900 people. The credibility of the survey was contested by another question, where 14% of respondents said they had both a U.S. birth certificate and naturalization papers.[25] In 2010, the voting age population was an estimated 237.3 million, and the citizen voting age population was 217.5 million. Of those, 186.9 million were registered voters.[26] The Heritage Foundation has pointed to U.S. Department of Transportation records showing that there were 205.8 million valid drivers licenses in 2009, meaning there are 19 million more individuals with photo ID than there are registered voters, as evidence that photo ID is not hard to obtain.[27] Similarly, Kris Kobach, a Republican supporter of Voter ID laws, points to evidence in Kansas that more than 30,000 registered drivers in Kansas are not registered to vote.[28] - Voter ID laws (United States) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    Benjii likes the protests...he'd be largely irrelevant without them. So he needs to speak where he knows there will be protests against him and that makes him responsible for the protests.
    Quote Originally Posted by Absentglare View Post
    You can successfully wipe your ass with toilet paper, that doesn't mean that you should.

  6. #796
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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackdog View Post
    No it is simple math using averages. More states without photo ID laws make up the average. You don't need a study to point out common sense numbers.
    Actually, Indiana came in 2% below the national average. But that still doesn't tell us anything. Maybe it would have been 2% low anyways for some other reason. Maybe it would have been 2% above without the voter ID law. No way you can tell just on this data. Could be that voter ID laws were passed in states that usually tend to have higher turnout. Could be that many voter ID states were passed in states with higher numbers of minority voters whose turnout surged nationally and that explains why they had higher turnout.

    It's just way too many variables to just make a guess based on the total turnout like that. That would be like trying to prove that Rush Limbaugh isn't fat by weighing a crowded city bus he is on and pointing out that the total weight was roughly in the same range as crowded buses usually weigh. It's not common sense, it's non-sense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackdog View Post
    In fact if you look at the averages from previous elections, turnout has gone up, not down even in photo ID states.
    Turnout went way up nationally in the 2008 elections. It was a record breaker.

  7. #797
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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    Quote Originally Posted by teamosil View Post
    Actually, Indiana came in 2% below the national average. But that still doesn't tell us anything. Maybe it would have been 2% low anyways for some other reason. Maybe it would have been 2% above without the voter ID law. No way you can tell just on this data. Could be that voter ID laws were passed in states that usually tend to have higher turnout. Could be that many voter ID states were passed in states with higher numbers of minority voters whose turnout surged nationally and that explains why they had higher turnout.
    That is not true. The national average was 56.9 and Indiana was at 57. It is a point .1% difference in Indiana's favor.

    Lets compare Illinois with 14.1% black to Indiana's 9.1% black.

    Illinois voter turnout was .4% higher with no ID laws. Again, negligible compared to an ID state.

    Quote Originally Posted by teamosil View Post
    It's just way too many variables to just make a guess based on the total turnout like that. That would be like trying to prove that Rush Limbaugh isn't fat by weighing a crowded city bus he is on and pointing out that the total weight was roughly in the same range as crowded buses usually weigh. It's not common sense, it's non-sense.
    Occam's razor in this case is common sense.

    Quote Originally Posted by teamosil View Post
    Turnout went way up nationally in the 2008 elections. It was a record breaker.
    Then voter turnout should have been allot less in photo ID states if it was a hardship. I mean 5,000,000 voters would be hard to miss?
    Last edited by Black Dog; 01-17-12 at 02:55 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    Benjii likes the protests...he'd be largely irrelevant without them. So he needs to speak where he knows there will be protests against him and that makes him responsible for the protests.
    Quote Originally Posted by Absentglare View Post
    You can successfully wipe your ass with toilet paper, that doesn't mean that you should.

  8. #798
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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackdog View Post
    And so they are still guessing when we have the actual number.
    Their report is the "first comprehensive study of the laws’ impact."
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

  9. #799
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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackdog View Post
    That is not true. The national average was 56.9 and Indiana was at 57. It is a point .1% difference in Indiana's favor.
    You're looking at the wrong column. That's the percentage of people who are 18 or older, not the percentage of people who are legally allowed to vote. The first column is the relevant one- what percentage of people who are allowed to vote did vote.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackdog View Post
    Occam's razor in this case is common sense.
    Occam's razor? That doesn't have anything to do with this. You're arguing that, contrary to the scientific method itself, we shouldn't bother controlling for external variables...

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackdog View Post
    Then voter turnout should have been allot less in photo ID states if it was a hardship. I mean 5,000,000 voters would be hard to miss?
    5 million voters if photo ID laws were applied nationally, not just in the photo ID states.

    You can't really draw any conclusions just based on this table. You have no idea what impact it had from this table. To know that you'd need to control for as many other variables as possible. For example, say that 99% of voters that make more than $100k/year have photo IDs, but only 80% of voters that make less than $20k/year do. A proper study would look to see how turnout changed for people making $100k/year or more vs how it changed for people making $20k/year or less. If turnout increased by more for people making more than $100k, it would also need to look at how turnout changed for those groups nationally. From that you could begin to make a reasonable guess about the impact it had. A study would compare changes in various groups in Indiana to changes in those groups' turnout nationally, compare all that to the percentage of the groups that have photo IDs issued by Indiana, look for correlations, etc. Just trying to skip over all that analysis doesn't work. You can't make any useful conclusions without thinking all that through.

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    Re: Photo ID to vote?

    "Meanwhile, here in the Reality-Based Community, the REAL danger to democracy is ELECTION FRAUD with the help of electronic voting machines.

    The Party of No,” with the help of electronic voting machines flipping Democratic votes to Republican, illegal vote caging tactics employed despite a standing court order, as well as inside men on the Supreme Court, will do anything to maintain power for the top 1% – including rigging elections.

    Jonathan D. Simon, Executive Director of Election Defense Fund wrote,

    “Study after study–from Princeton, to Johns Hopkins, to NYU’s Brennan Center, to the California Secretary of State’s office, to the GAO itself (see http://tinyurl.com/3hz7xj2 ) –conclude that this counting process is obscenely vulnerable to insider manipulation and outsider hacking. So have many studies examining computerized voting abroad–which is why countries such as Germany, Ireland, and Holland have begun turning back to human counted ballots. There is consensus verging on unanimity among the experts.”

    Recently, the Vulnerability Assessment Team at Argonne National Laboratory, run by the Department of Energy, remotely hacked a Diebold electronic voting machine, leaving no trace of their presence behind. So, naturally, Republicans want to ensure the easily-hacked machines are implemented from sea to shining sea."


    Republican Class War Year In Review | Republican Dirty Tricks
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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