Too many conventional thinkers. That is the way you lose money, because Romney is way overrated in political circles. He has not won by default.
I will say there is a fifty, fifty chance between Gingrich and Romney. Romney may benefit if Gingrich messes up, but if he don't it is going to be a very tough battle for him. Gingrich has a lot of corporate backers, he has support from Fox News, and the debates have calmed down somewhat.
The amount of not-Romney supporters are the problem for Romney. Right now, there are two not-Romney candidates polling at the same level as Mitt Romney. If for instance Herman Cain drops out, where do you think his supporters will go?
Cain was a godsend for Gingrich.
Everybody knows Gingrich's history of cheating on wife and divorcing her at her worst moment. But the key word is "history". Our memories are short and we are more concerned about this present revelation of Cain and his sexual exploits. The press isn't hounding Gingrich about all his past exploits.
It is kind of funny in a way as what Gingrich did was probably far worst than Cain's but since Cain started out lying about his events he has came looking worst.
If Gingrich said what he did to his former wife was wrong and he realizes that now and is not going to lie or deny that to the voters he would gain points above Cain who has been caught lying to the voters.
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at this point, i'd give him an 85 percent chance of the nomination.
Who is the Barack Obama in this Republican field who will use all the enthusiasm his campaign generates to defeat the GOP establishment's candidate?
Last edited by Kandahar; 11-12-11 at 01:58 PM.
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I think the continuing reluctance of Republicans to accept Romney speaks volumes concerning the power social conservatives continue to have over the primary process. The only possible reason Romney is not blowing away everyone else is because (1) he is Mormon and (2) because he has taken socially moderate-to-liberal positions in the past.
One could argue that the above is false, and that Republicans don't like Romney because he is a flip-flopper on fiscal issues, but if that is the case, Huntsman should have risen to the top of the pack by now. He is probably the most credible fiscal conservative of all of the candidates, but has been overpassed in turn by Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and now Gingrich.
The only thing Huntsman and Romney have in common is their religion and their apathy toward social conservative issues. This leads, IMO, to the unavoidable conclusion that the majority of Republicans still consider these issues to be more important than fiscal conservatism. Which is extremely troubling.
Last edited by Camer☑n; 11-12-11 at 02:35 PM.
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I wouldn't say for sure that Romney will get it, but it's a significant problem for the other candidates to overcome his seemingly stand-by presence.
Last edited by Fiddytree; 11-12-11 at 02:57 PM.
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