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Who will win GOP primary?

Question

  • Romney

    Votes: 5 22.7%

  • Perry

    Votes: 11 50.0%

  • Bachmann

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Pawlenty

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Gingrinch

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Cain

    Votes: 1 4.5%

  • Paul

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Palin

    Votes: 1 4.5%

  • Don't know

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    22
SheWolf

SheWolf

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Who do you think will win the GOP primary?
 
More than likely Romney, though my predictive powers have lacked this week. Pawlenty has withdrawn as I understand it, so he won't win.
 
Redress said:
More than likely Romney, though my predictive powers have lacked this week. Pawlenty has withdrawn as I understand it, so he won't win.
Click to expand...

And it looks like his donors are going to Bachmann and Perry now...
 
I feel strongly it will be Perry. Of course, I think Romney would have the best chance in the general election, but I don't think the crazy wing of the Republican party are going to let him run.

Old school Republicans can even see that Bachmann is bat**** crazy, so they are not going to support her. Perry appeals to both the crazy wing and the old school Republican wing, so I think he will be the one they go with.

That's my prediction.
 
He must have heard the news about Perry jumping in, and decided he didn't have a chance...
 
Catawba said:
I feel strongly it will be Perry. Of course, I think Romney would have the best chance in the general election, but I don't think the crazy wing of the Republican party are going to let him run.

Old school Republicans can even see that Bachmann is bat**** crazy, so they are not going to support her. Perry appeals to both the crazy wing and the old school Republican wing, so I think he will be the one they go with.

That's my prediction.
Click to expand...

It's a good prediction. I think Perry will win all the southern states, and Mitt will have to fight hard in places like Florida, Nevada, Ohio, etc.

It actually is still hard to tell though. I remember everybody thought Howard Dean was going to win the primary, but Kerry did. Then Hillary was a sure bet, but Obama came out of nowhere. I honestly didn't think McCain would win the ticket in 2008 either... I kind of thought it would have been Guiliani or Huckabee.
 
Republican primary voters have a nasty habit of flocking to the "next in line." That would be Romney - he ran in 2008 and lost and now he's teeing up again.

How much will the mood of the country and the presence of an energized TEA Party changes things? I have no clue.

Who should win? Governor Palin. She has the most reasoned approach to many of the problems that face us. She's not indebted to either a political machine nor to Wall Street. She's been forged in the fire that the Obama minions have directed at her since 2008 and so there's nothing that Obama's machine can do to her that they haven't already done. Perry is just starting to get a taste of that and so too Bachman. Can they withstand the barrages of all out war from a media so invested in keeping a liberal "lightworker" in the White House?

Will someone else come forward in the coming months. I read that Paul Ryan is considering.

The whole thing is wide open right now.
 
SheWolf said:
To put things in perspective...

McCain is Green
Romney is Yellow
Huckabee is Blue

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...tes)_presidential_primaries_results,_2008.svg
Click to expand...

Thanks for that map. I wonder about those McCain states. Did they go for McCain because they preferred him over Romney or because they were thinking "Anyone but Romney."

If the former, then if no better candidate comes along and Romney is heir apparent, then he could sweep those McCain states. If it's the latter, then he's doomed because the same dynamic is likely to be in place in this go-around as in 2008.
 
RiverDad said:
Thanks for that map. I wonder about those McCain states. Did they go for McCain because they preferred him over Romney or because they were thinking "Anyone but Romney."

If the former, then if no better candidate comes along and Romney is heir apparent, then he could sweep those McCain states. If it's the latter, then he's doomed because the same dynamic is likely to be in place in this go-around as in 2008.
Click to expand...

I think your latter scenario is most likely and that would mean more would go for Perry it would seem, don't you think?
 
Catawba said:
I think your latter scenario is most likely and that would mean more would go for Perry it would seem, don't you think?
Click to expand...

I'm not sold on that viewpoint yet. I got a very strong sense in 2008 that McCain got the nomination because he was heir apparent. He was runner-up in 2000 to Bush, he made his peace with Bush, and now it was his turn. Recall that he had a LOT of baggage that made him a difficult choice for Republicans. A LOT. Yet he still got the nomination.

Now Romney is the heir apparent. He's got a lot of baggage too, different baggage but still baggage.

The religious fundamentalist faction of the Republican Party is not happy with the Mormonism issue but if you look at the map that SheWolf linked, the region of the country with the strongest representation of the religious fundamentalists voted for Huckabee. This go around they'll probably vote for "Anyone but Romney" but that still leaves all of those McCain states and I don't have a strong sense of why people voted for McCain.
 
RiverDad said:
Thanks for that map. I wonder about those McCain states. Did they go for McCain because they preferred him over Romney or because they were thinking "Anyone but Romney."

If the former, then if no better candidate comes along and Romney is heir apparent, then he could sweep those McCain states. If it's the latter, then he's doomed because the same dynamic is likely to be in place in this go-around as in 2008.
Click to expand...

I tried to embed it, but DP said the link was invalid....
 
SheWolf said:
I tried to embed it, but DP said the link was invalid....
Click to expand...

Try un-checking the little text block below the URL entry point.
 
RiverDad said:
I'm not sold on that viewpoint yet. I got a very strong sense in 2008 that McCain got the nomination because he was heir apparent. He was runner-up in 2000 to Bush, he made his peace with Bush, and now it was his turn. Recall that he had a LOT of baggage that made him a difficult choice for Republicans. A LOT. Yet he still got the nomination.

Now Romney is the heir apparent. He's got a lot of baggage too, different baggage but still baggage.

The religious fundamentalist faction of the Republican Party is not happy with the Mormonism issue but if you look at the map that SheWolf linked, the region of the country with the strongest representation of the religious fundamentalists voted for Huckabee. This go around they'll probably vote for "Anyone but Romney" but that still leaves all of those McCain states and I don't have a strong sense of why people voted for McCain.
Click to expand...

Possibly, though I sense the conservative voters are much more against Romney now than they were against McCain in '08. Unless they dig up more dirt on Perry than is already known, I just can't see a path for Romney to beat Perry during this very tea party charged mood among conservatives.
 
Most likely Perry or Romney.

The GOP Establishment will never let Paul or Bachmann get it.
 
SheWolf said:
To put things in perspective...

McCain is Green
Romney is Yellow
Huckabee is Blue

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...tes)_presidential_primaries_results,_2008.svg
Click to expand...

Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries_results%2C_2008.svg
 
Catawba said:
Possibly, though I sense the conservative voters are much more against Romney now than they were against McCain in '08. Unless they dig up more dirt on Perry than is already known, I just can't see a path for Romney to beat Perry during this very tea party charged mood among conservatives.
Click to expand...

Perry's vaulted to the top because he's the newest shiny bright thing. That speaks to a sense of dissatisfaction with the current crop of contenders. Maybe Perry does have the appeal and stamina for a long haul contest. I don't know. What I have noticed though is a process where a name is floated and they vault up to the top of the ratings and then they fall.

Romney is getting a lot of establishment backing. Just like McCain last go around. Keep in mind that Republican doesn't mean religious fundamentalist. There are plenty of factions within the Republican tent which effectively neutralize the religious vote.
 
RiverDad said:
Perry's vaulted to the top because he's the newest shiny bright thing. That speaks to a sense of dissatisfaction with the current crop of contenders. Maybe Perry does have the appeal and stamina for a long haul contest. I don't know. What I have noticed though is a process where a name is floated and they vault up to the top of the ratings and then they fall.

Romney is getting a lot of establishment backing. Just like McCain last go around. Keep in mind that Republican doesn't mean religious fundamentalist. There are plenty of factions within the Republican tent which effectively neutralize the religious vote.
Click to expand...

You could be right, I have just not seen evidence of that since the November election of a large number of newcomers. Conservatives have never before held the economy hostage by their refusal to raise the debt ceiling. This is what makes me think the old-school conservatives influence is greatly reduced from '08.
 
Perry or Romney. The establishment will never allow Bachmann to win the nomination. The intelligent GOP knows that to win, the grown up vote must dominate the loonies.
 
I hope Romney, but I don't think he inspires moderates to vote, and the Tea Party is just too powerful in the primary. I think Perry or even Bachmann could actually win if they have strong fundraising and cut down the gaffes, and if they don't split the vote. If Giuliani decides to run he may have the best chance, because I think he could energize moderate and independents more.
 
I voted for Ron Paul for fun. I honestly think Romney will get it, but I can't find anyone that likes the man. *Shrug
 
It's too early to tell, and there are a few people who could still get into the race. All we can hope is that it's someone who can send Obama back to Chicago where he belongs.
 
I wish Huntsman or Paul

I'm guessing Romney or Perry
 
Zyphlin said:
I wish Huntsman or Paul

I'm guessing Romney or Perry
Click to expand...

Indeed. Huntsman is dead in the water. There's no way an intelligent, science based, actual free market Republican with moderate social stances will win the nomination. It will be interesting to see just how much damage Rove can do to Perry though.
 
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