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  • Romney

    6 18.18%
  • Perry

    13 39.39%
  • Bachmann

    0 0%
  • Pawlenty

    0 0%
  • Gingrinch

    1 3.03%
  • Cain

    2 6.06%
  • Paul

    8 24.24%
  • Palin

    1 3.03%
  • Don't know

    2 6.06%
  • Other

    0 0%
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Thread: Who will win GOP primary?

  1. #11
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    I think your latter scenario is most likely and that would mean more would go for Perry it would seem, don't you think?
    I'm not sold on that viewpoint yet. I got a very strong sense in 2008 that McCain got the nomination because he was heir apparent. He was runner-up in 2000 to Bush, he made his peace with Bush, and now it was his turn. Recall that he had a LOT of baggage that made him a difficult choice for Republicans. A LOT. Yet he still got the nomination.

    Now Romney is the heir apparent. He's got a lot of baggage too, different baggage but still baggage.

    The religious fundamentalist faction of the Republican Party is not happy with the Mormonism issue but if you look at the map that SheWolf linked, the region of the country with the strongest representation of the religious fundamentalists voted for Huckabee. This go around they'll probably vote for "Anyone but Romney" but that still leaves all of those McCain states and I don't have a strong sense of why people voted for McCain.

  2. #12
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverDad View Post
    Thanks for that map. I wonder about those McCain states. Did they go for McCain because they preferred him over Romney or because they were thinking "Anyone but Romney."

    If the former, then if no better candidate comes along and Romney is heir apparent, then he could sweep those McCain states. If it's the latter, then he's doomed because the same dynamic is likely to be in place in this go-around as in 2008.
    I tried to embed it, but DP said the link was invalid....

  3. #13
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Quote Originally Posted by SheWolf View Post
    I tried to embed it, but DP said the link was invalid....
    Try un-checking the little text block below the URL entry point.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

  4. #14
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverDad View Post
    I'm not sold on that viewpoint yet. I got a very strong sense in 2008 that McCain got the nomination because he was heir apparent. He was runner-up in 2000 to Bush, he made his peace with Bush, and now it was his turn. Recall that he had a LOT of baggage that made him a difficult choice for Republicans. A LOT. Yet he still got the nomination.

    Now Romney is the heir apparent. He's got a lot of baggage too, different baggage but still baggage.

    The religious fundamentalist faction of the Republican Party is not happy with the Mormonism issue but if you look at the map that SheWolf linked, the region of the country with the strongest representation of the religious fundamentalists voted for Huckabee. This go around they'll probably vote for "Anyone but Romney" but that still leaves all of those McCain states and I don't have a strong sense of why people voted for McCain.
    Possibly, though I sense the conservative voters are much more against Romney now than they were against McCain in '08. Unless they dig up more dirt on Perry than is already known, I just can't see a path for Romney to beat Perry during this very tea party charged mood among conservatives.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

  5. #15
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Most likely Perry or Romney.

    The GOP Establishment will never let Paul or Bachmann get it.

  6. #16
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Quote Originally Posted by SheWolf View Post
    To put things in perspective...

    McCain is Green
    Romney is Yellow
    Huckabee is Blue

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ts%2C_2008.svg

  7. #17
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Try un-checking the little text block below the URL entry point.
    Thanks... I don't know why I didn't think of that.

  8. #18
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Possibly, though I sense the conservative voters are much more against Romney now than they were against McCain in '08. Unless they dig up more dirt on Perry than is already known, I just can't see a path for Romney to beat Perry during this very tea party charged mood among conservatives.
    Perry's vaulted to the top because he's the newest shiny bright thing. That speaks to a sense of dissatisfaction with the current crop of contenders. Maybe Perry does have the appeal and stamina for a long haul contest. I don't know. What I have noticed though is a process where a name is floated and they vault up to the top of the ratings and then they fall.

    Romney is getting a lot of establishment backing. Just like McCain last go around. Keep in mind that Republican doesn't mean religious fundamentalist. There are plenty of factions within the Republican tent which effectively neutralize the religious vote.

  9. #19
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverDad View Post
    Perry's vaulted to the top because he's the newest shiny bright thing. That speaks to a sense of dissatisfaction with the current crop of contenders. Maybe Perry does have the appeal and stamina for a long haul contest. I don't know. What I have noticed though is a process where a name is floated and they vault up to the top of the ratings and then they fall.

    Romney is getting a lot of establishment backing. Just like McCain last go around. Keep in mind that Republican doesn't mean religious fundamentalist. There are plenty of factions within the Republican tent which effectively neutralize the religious vote.
    You could be right, I have just not seen evidence of that since the November election of a large number of newcomers. Conservatives have never before held the economy hostage by their refusal to raise the debt ceiling. This is what makes me think the old-school conservatives influence is greatly reduced from '08.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

  10. #20
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    Re: Who will win GOP primary?

    Perry or Romney. The establishment will never allow Bachmann to win the nomination. The intelligent GOP knows that to win, the grown up vote must dominate the loonies.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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