View Poll Results: Can Bachman and Perry beat Obama in 2012

Voters
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  • Bachman Can Beat Obama

    33 32.35%
  • Perry can Beat obama

    37 36.27%
  • Neither of them can beat Obama

    32 31.37%
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Thread: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

  1. #101
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    I would agree with you that Perry will win the nomination, but I think he will lose the general election, for the same reason Bachmann would, but I also agree it would be a closer race.
    I like the way Nate Silver described electability:
    "Electability exists along a spectrum, rather than in absolutes. Mr. Romney could defeat Barack Obama under a wider variety of circumstances than, for instance, Christine O’Donnell. But if the United States were suffering from Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation in which all liquid wealth in the country was destroyed every 24 hours, I would start to like Ms. O’Donnell’s chances against Mr. Obama, too."

    I think this is absolutely right. The economic and geopolitical conditions next year will play a big role in determining who wins the election. The identity of the Republican nominee will only matter at the margins, after those conditions are taken into account.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 08-18-11 at 09:37 PM.
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  2. #102
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    I think both have the potential to.
    If you strike me down, I'll become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.

  3. #103
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    Neither of these nimrods have an ice cube's chance in hell of winning the 2012 Presidential election.
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  4. #104
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    As bad as Obama's record is, you could run cow methane against him and it would win.
    If you strike me down, I'll become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.

  5. #105
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    Bachmann: No
    Perry: Close chance of winning
    "The misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all" - Joan Robinson
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  6. #106
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by SPC View Post
    No, it's liberal spin to hide the fact that Obama is a failure. You want to know what Obama inhereted from Bush? A AAA S&P credit rating, that Obama destroyed.
    So you do know that the growth in the unemployment rate was over 400% higher under Bush than under Obama.
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  7. #107
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverDad View Post
    No, I don't realize that. Your argument hangs on a technicality, which is that unemployment numbers are calculated as a ratio of those who are looking for work as the proportion of those who are working. This completely ignores all of those who've dropped out of the labor force due to finding no work.

    In January 2001, the month of Bush's inauguration, the labor force participation rate was 67.2% and when he left office, using the last full month of his tenure, Dec. 2008, the workforce participation rate was 65.8%, a drop of 1.4% of the population.

    When Obama was inaugurated the workforce participation rate was 65.7% and the most current workforce participation rate is 63.9%, a drop of 1.8%.

    Attachment 67115040
    NO. Actually my argument is based on the official statistics from the US Government. The rate of growth in the unemployment rate was over 400% higher under Bush than it has been under Obama.
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  8. #108
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by DashingAmerican View Post
    As bad as Obama's record is, you could run cow methane against him and it would win.
    If you are willing to take the methane I will give you 100 to 1 odds on a minimum four figure wager.
    __________________________________________________ _
    There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.... John Rogers

  9. #109
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I like the way Nate Silver described electability:
    "Electability exists along a spectrum, rather than in absolutes. Mr. Romney could defeat Barack Obama under a wider variety of circumstances than, for instance, Christine O’Donnell. But if the United States were suffering from Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation in which all liquid wealth in the country was destroyed every 24 hours, I would start to like Ms. O’Donnell’s chances against Mr. Obama, too."

    I think this is absolutely right. The economic and geopolitical conditions next year will play a big role in determining who wins the election. The identity of the Republican nominee will only matter at the margins, after those conditions are taken into account.
    I think unless we get to a Zimbabwe economy, the GOP will not win the presidency next year because they are still only offering the same failed trickle down economics of the last 30 year - more tax cuts for the wealthy and less regulations.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

  10. #110
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    Re: Can Bachman or Perry beat Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by DashingAmerican View Post
    As bad as Obama's record is, you could run cow methane against him and it would win.
    A few still say that but the polls show voters would choose Obama. Even Texans say they would choose Obama over Perry.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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