View Poll Results: Was it Ever?

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  • Yes

    6 18.75%
  • No

    18 56.25%
  • Only If......

    8 25.00%
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Thread: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

  1. #61
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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Cp, you need to learn the difference between a projection, and a fact. The stimulus was somewhat successful, by it's own measure, because it created jobs, which it was designed to do. The fact that unemployment got worse than projected does not mean the stimulus failed. It simply means the projections where wrong. Unemployment would most likely have been even worse without a stimulus.
    That of course being a projection and not fact.

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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1Perry View Post
    That of course being a projection and not fact.
    No, that being an analysis of historical data. It's not a slam dunk perfect 100 % case, but more reliable than a projection. One is guessing the future, one is looking at what actually did happen.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    In November 2010, the nation had a massive right-leaning correction to two, very large left-leaning previous elections.

    however, the White House and the Senate turn over every 4 and 6 years respectively. The House turns over every two.

    Ergo, the President and Senate are reflective of strong Democrat elections, whereas the House is reflective of a strong Republican election.

    I posit, therefore, that a Grand Bargain was never a real possibility. To say that the two sides are too far apart isn't really a full explanation; but rather that in the context of a large deal, there never was any serious overlap. The math makes it nigh impossible to talk about large deficit reduction without reforming the entitlements, but Democrats are unwilling to reform the entitlements without tax hikes - and the minimum that they will accept is higher than the maximum that Republicans will accept. Both sides put forth their "best offer" and know that they are compromising as much as they possibly can - while both best offers remain too far apart, and each accuses the other of not compromising.

    In short, this is something that will have to be decided by the 2012 election - because at current our government, split between the sections that were a reaction to George Bush and the section that was a reaction to Barack Obama, is simply incapable of finding ground both can stand on.
    Actually, I don't think it's because of the Democrats and the Republicans that we can't get a deal passed, but rather the special interests who control both parties.
    Also, we need to legalize recreational drugs and prostitution.

  4. #64
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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by samsmart View Post
    Actually, I don't think it's because of the Democrats and the Republicans that we can't get a deal passed, but rather the special interests who control both parties.
    I just read the following quote, and it cracked my ass right the hell up.

    And IG Markets chief market strategist Ben Potter told Dow Jones Newswires: "We're still of the view that the 'too big to fail' attitude will mean the debt ceiling is raised."
    However he added that it was "becoming more evident that it's going to take longer than expected and that one side is probably going to have to give up more ground than they had wanted".
    Since we already offered the sun, moon and stars at a 3-1 rate and it was refused, I certainly hope he's not talking cuts.

    Latest:

    John Boehner Unveils New Debt Ceiling Plan: Bitch, Bail, and Flail

    The above demonstrates exactly how Boehner and GOPís bitch, bail, and flail plan works. First comes the complaint about the size of the national debt. The complaint is followed by bailing on doing anything serious by touting a House plan that was DOA the millisecond it was passed. The process is then concluded by flailing anytime reality is injected into the conversation. (For example, Chris Wallace pointing out that the Senate rejected the House plan).
    Last edited by BDBoop; 07-25-11 at 03:04 AM.

  5. #65
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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Cp, you need to learn the difference between a projection, and a fact. The stimulus was somewhat successful, by it's own measure, because it created jobs, which it was designed to do. The fact that unemployment got worse than projected does not mean the stimulus failed. It simply means the projections where wrong. Unemployment would most likely have been even worse without a stimulus.
    in science they call that an "unfalsifiable thesis". the rest of us just call it circular logic. the stimulus must have succeeded because it succeed because we projected it to succeed? okay

    here's a quick question. If I destroy 4 jobs, but create 2 jobs, how much does unemployment fall?

    According to stimulus math, unemployment falls by 2 jobs. hooray!

    You have had your facts wrong at every step this thread, and when called on it, ducked and ran, again. No matter how many times Hauser's "law" get blown up in your face, you keep trotting it out.
    as far as I am aware, the basic thrust behind it has never blown up in my face. even the outlier you mention serves to reinforce the point that revenues are not primarily a function of tax rates.

    You claim that revenue is just based on GDP
    no. I claim that the most powerful factor in revenue is GDP - that the factor that has proven most accurate at predicting revenue has been GDP.

    but when the numbers don't work, then you say that it is another factor, but still ignore all the factors that are inconvenient to you that affect revenue.
    no single factor determines revenue. but you can demonstrate different weights. what you are doing here is substituting actually answering a point by claiming that the point has been answered.

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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Only if the Tea Party nutters are marginalised.
    PeteEU

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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    No, that being an analysis of historical data. It's not a slam dunk perfect 100 % case, but more reliable than a projection. One is guessing the future, one is looking at what actually did happen.
    hilarious.

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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Its not over yet...this poll would have been better posted after aug 2nd if no deal is reached....I still believe the debt ceiling will be raised....even if temporarily.

    I agree with CPwills original poll post and his analysis of the elections..I think hes right on. The gop won big in Nov, because of two things...Obamacare and Nancy Pelosi's glaring, gloating, joker like grinning face that utterly turned the stomachs of most americans.
    The teaparty started out a grass roots effort against obamacare and pelosi, the teaparty was full of working class senior citizens and working class in general....then the teaparty came out of the closet and its leaders exposed themselves as of the rich and for the rich only.

    I think the teaparty will have a run for a cycle, but once it settles in that their only goal was cutting anything from the middleclass and not only preserving but even cutting further burden from the rich and corporations...who are prospering greatly while working america is dieing right now today....it will flip and flip HARD.
    Let the SS cuts hit and whatever else they are going to whack from the middleclass then the reality will be there....then theres the teaparty govs that are getting more unpopular all the time.....it will be interesting to see how it unfolds...

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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    in science they call that an "unfalsifiable thesis". the rest of us just call it circular logic. the stimulus must have succeeded because it succeed because we projected it to succeed? okay

    here's a quick question. If I destroy 4 jobs, but create 2 jobs, how much does unemployment fall?

    According to stimulus math, unemployment falls by 2 jobs. hooray!
    And this is just random ramblings of unverifiable claims. Our best analysis suggests it created jobs. it only destroyed jobs in the mind of those who do not understand economics.

    as far as I am aware, the basic thrust behind it has never blown up in my face. even the outlier you mention serves to reinforce the point that revenues are not primarily a function of tax rates.
    Hey look, now you are forced to claim Hauser's Law says something it does not.

    Let's look at Wiki: Hauser's law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Hauser's law is the proposition that, in the United States, federal tax revenues since World War II have always been approximately equal to 19.5% of GDP, regardless of wide fluctuations in the marginal tax rate.[1]
    Of course, that is not true any longer, and as the chart I linked earlier showed, it would have not been true in the other direction in the early 2000's if Bush had not cut taxes. Nice try at spin, except it failed.

    no. I claim that the most powerful factor in revenue is GDP - that the factor that has proven most accurate at predicting revenue has been GDP.
    You have mentioned a total of 2 factors in determining revenue, when there are dozens. One of those is, surprise, tax rates...but you don't want them to be mentioned. You always try and bring it down to one factor, and the one factor you want to claim is responsible is the one that if it was the controlling factor would make your premise true. The problem of course is that it is not that simple.

    no single factor determines revenue. but you can demonstrate different weights. what you are doing here is substituting actually answering a point by claiming that the point has been answered.
    Even the weight difference factors have changes.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: Was A Big Deal Ever Possible?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Actually this is not true, and I agree with republicans that taxes should not be raised. raising taxes, especially in a struggling economy, is akin to eating seed corn. The reality is the only thing that has to be done is reduce the growth of government to below the rate of growth of the economy. Doing somewhat more is better, but that is all that has to be done, and that can be done without any changes in taxes.
    Pure baloney this is a tax base problem created mostly by unemployment and under employment. Our tax base has been significantly reduced by unemployment and the only people that can change that are those with the money to do so and why would they want to create work here in the USA when they can outsource and open up manufacturing in foreign countries?

    It's probably to late but we needed a radical change in our government, capitalism brought us to this point and it will not save us from the pending financial diaster that looms directly ahead, mean time as we plunge head first towards the end of our society as we have known it the rich continue to suck every cent out of the economy that they can.

    We need a government that puts America and Americans first. We need a socialistic government that will create and protect our jobs using American tax payer monies

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