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Thread: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

  1. #11
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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    I don't know if it will be better or worse off compared to today...but I do think that it will be GETTING better by then. Any deterioration that might occur will be mostly front-loaded: I suspect that we'll have a few more years of high deficits (still dealing with the aftermath of the recession), but we'll manage to tackle at least 2 of our 4 long-term deficit drivers (social security, defense, health care, tax policy). By 2015, I suspect that our debt-to-GDP ratio will be falling.

    I think there is plenty of opportunity for deficit reduction via defense spending and tax revenue, specifically. Social security is a bit tougher to tackle politically, but since all of our long-term SS problems can be solved with some relatively minor tweaks, I hold out hope that an agreement can be reached on this issue as well. Health care is the only one that really seems intractable at this point in time, but there may be more opportunity to tackle that as well once the Affordable Care Act is fully implemented and passions around it die down.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 07-18-11 at 03:22 AM.
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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    I think we could do it, I just don't think we have the political will to do it. People want as many freebies as they can get whether we can afford it or not. They're not willing to accept the cuts we need to actually balance the budget, they think the gravy train can go on forever. I honestly don't think that's going to change any time soon.
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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    I'm not a lawyer and that gives me an advantage of most politicians and I'm not a dumb-ass like who claims to genius but I could the recovery on track in a week and ceate jobs in a month.

    Move number one is yo get rid of Obama. the good news would help with on hours.

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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I don't know if it will be better or worse off compared to today...but I do think that it will be GETTING better by then. Any deterioration that might occur will be mostly front-loaded: I suspect that we'll have a few more years of high deficits (still dealing with the aftermath of the recession), but we'll manage to tackle at least 2 of our 4 long-term deficit drivers (social security, defense, health care, tax policy). By 2015, I suspect that our debt-to-GDP ratio will be falling.

    I think there is plenty of opportunity for deficit reduction via defense spending and tax revenue, specifically. Social security is a bit tougher to tackle politically, but since all of our long-term SS problems can be solved with some relatively minor tweaks, I hold out hope that an agreement can be reached on this issue as well. Health care is the only one that really seems intractable at this point in time, but there may be more opportunity to tackle that as well once the Affordable Care Act is fully implemented and passions around it die down.
    I don't think you understand. the ACA will never be fully implemented. Not just because Republicans will see to it, but because at this point it can't be fully implemented. The United States does not have and will very likely be unable to get anyone to loan us that much money.

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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    as for our long-term budget; Social Security and Medicare are currently slated to rise by about 74% in the next 10 years. Medicare will go bankrupt. Social Security will be drawing funds out of the General Budget to the point that we will be unable to fund much else as we do today.

    the government of 2021 will look drastically different from the government of 2011. specifically, it will look like Greece, but Greece without an IMF or EU to bail them out. and all the incentives for our political leaders are to do nothing about it.
    Last edited by cpwill; 07-18-11 at 06:07 PM.

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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    I don't think you understand. the ACA will never be fully implemented. Not just because Republicans will see to it, but because at this point it can't be fully implemented.
    I suppose I shouldn't have assumed its implementation in my previous post. Allow me to rephrase: Health care seems intractable now, but maybe in a few years our government can take it up again after the ACA is resolved one way or the other and passions around it die down.

    The United States does not have and will very likely be unable to get anyone to loan us that much money.
    The CBO says that the Affordable Care Act will reduce our deficit over the next decade, and even more in the following decade. Therefore we won't need to borrow much money to fund it, except perhaps for the start-up costs.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 07-18-11 at 09:55 PM.
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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    In the news today...

    House to Vote on Tea Party-Backed Debt Plan - FoxNews.com

    But the White House attacked the cut, cap and balance idea as an assault on cherished programs. The measure doesn't contain any actual spending cuts but promises they will be made in the future.
    Which just helps support my view on how things will end. We still are not serious about making cuts. We will continue to kick the can down the road.

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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    Quote Originally Posted by Baralis View Post
    Which just helps support my view on how things will end. We still are not serious about making cuts. We will continue to kick the can down the road.
    Of course, nobody wants to make any actual cuts, that's going to cost them votes. I'd be fine with the idea of cutting $3 in spending for every $1 in tax increases or borrowing, so long as it was real, immediate and demonstrable cuts from existing programs that stopped receiving funding tomorrow. That'll just never happen.
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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cephus View Post
    Of course, nobody wants to make any actual cuts, that's going to cost them votes. I'd be fine with the idea of cutting $3 in spending for every $1 in tax increases or borrowing, so long as it was real, immediate and demonstrable cuts from existing programs that stopped receiving funding tomorrow. That'll just never happen.
    Fred Barnes (the conservative editor of the Weekly Standard) pointed out the problem with that approach in an op-ed piece last week: cuts to discretionary spending are easily reversible. I agree with him. Furthermore, there just isn't that much spending to cut from the (non-defense) discretionary budget. Ultimately I think we're going to need to tackle the things that aren't directly funded through the annual budgetary process at all: Pensions and health care.
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  10. #20
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    Re: How do you see our long term budget outlook?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    I suppose I shouldn't have assumed its implementation in my previous post. Allow me to rephrase: Health care seems intractable now, but maybe in a few years our government can take it up again after the ACA is resolved one way or the other and passions around it die down.
    that might be truer. but since it will be resolved in a way that reduces expenditures, i doubt it.

    The CBO says that the Affordable Care Act will reduce our deficit over the next decade, and even more in the following decade. Therefore we won't need to borrow much money to fund it, except perhaps for the start-up costs.
    yes, that is because the CBO was ordered to double-count no less than $500 Billion, assume that unemployment would be at about 7.5% by now, pretend that Congress would actually slash reimbursement rates to providers by 30%, and assume 4.5% growth in order to spike revenues. So when Republicans took over Congress, they asked the CBO to score Obamacare without the gimmicks. the "it reduces the budget" line was the chief whopper of that sale, right next to "if you like your health insurance you can keep it"

    It's a budget-buster. Even the Medicare / Medicaid Actuaries say that it bends the cost-curve up. Especially once you score it's first 10 years of operation.

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