View Poll Results: Do you think Obama will be reelected

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  • Yes, in a landslide

    43 48.86%
  • No, he's going to lose in a landslide.

    45 51.14%
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Thread: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

  1. #11
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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    I saw Romney in an interview on tv..Let's just say he doesn't have my vote. haha
    "Politics, it seems to me, for years, or all too long, has been concerned with right or left instead of right or wrong."
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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by jamesrage View Post
    I think he is guaranteed his 2nd term. A lot of his opponents are either RINOs(Mitt Romney) or damaged goods(Sara Palin). Whether or not it is a landslide depends on who the republicans prop up in order to give Obama his 2nd term.

    If the statistics remain consistent, he won't be.

    1. No President since 1936 who has had an Unemployment rate of 7.2% or above going into an election year has ever been reelected.
    2. No sitting Senator who has ever been elected President has ever been reelected (the first two who were died in office[Harding and Kennedy], however. So far Obama has broken that chain)
    3. Very rarely do we have three reelected Presidents in a row. It has only happened twice in American Political History: Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and FDR, Truman, Ike.

  3. #13
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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    The GOP field is such a mess that I have a hard time believing any of them can actually get more votes than Obama. It's not necessarily that I think Obama himself is a shoe-in, but the main party opposition is so poor that I think we're going to see a lot of independents and moderate Republicans either going with Obama out of resignation or voting 3rd party in protest.

    But, as others have said, it's way, way too early to claim to make a prediction that's accurate. That's just what it looks like to me right now. But we've got a long way to go...
    Last edited by SmokeAndMirrors; 07-09-11 at 04:28 PM.

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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by SPC View Post
    If the statistics remain consistent, he won't be.

    1. No President since 1936 who has had an Unemployment rate of 7.2% or above going into an election year has ever been reelected.
    2. No sitting Senator who has ever been elected President has ever been reelected (the first two who were died in office[Harding and Kennedy], however. So far Obama has broken that chain)
    3. Very rarely do we have three reelected Presidents in a row. It has only happened twice in American Political History: Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and FDR, Truman, Ike.
    None of that takes into account the situation. How about you look into how often moderates have won the GOP primary after Reagan. That should be more telling than most other things.
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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by SPC View Post
    The question speaks for itself.
    Where's yes in a sqeeker?

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by repeter View Post
    None of that takes into account the situation. How about you look into how often moderates have won the GOP primary after Reagan. That should be more telling than most other things.
    Reagan wasn't a moderate, and there are quite a few conservatives on the list right now. Incidently, my definition of a Moderate is a "watered down liberal".

  7. #17
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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by SPC View Post
    If the statistics remain consistent, he won't be.

    1. No President since 1936 who has had an Unemployment rate of 7.2% or above going into an election year has ever been reelected.
    2. No sitting Senator who has ever been elected President has ever been reelected (the first two who were died in office[Harding and Kennedy], however. So far Obama has broken that chain)
    3. Very rarely do we have three reelected Presidents in a row. It has only happened twice in American Political History: Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and FDR, Truman, Ike.
    All incredibly flawed points.

    1. I've explained this one before, maybe if I have time I'll go look up my old post.

    EDIT: Here it is:

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swizz View Post
    That's such a flawed statistic though.

    First of all, why ignore that FDR got reelected with an unemployment rate in the teens (I believe it was 14 or 15%)? Seems pretty significant, and no economic crisis since that time period has been quite as bad as the one Obama has faced in his first few years as president.

    Secondly, let's look at the unemployment #s on election day for post-FDR incumbent presidents, up until that magical 7.2% number that Reagan got reelected with:
    Truman, 1948 - 3.8% (reelected)
    Eisenhower, 1956 - 4.3% (reelected)
    Johnson, 1964 - 4.8% (reelectedish)
    Nixon, 1972 - 5.3% (reelected)
    Ford, 1976 - 7.8% (NOT reelected)
    Carter, 1980 - 7.5% (NOT reelected)

    So what I'm getting at is that in 1984, by your logic, you could've said "In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 5.3%. Thus, Reagan won't win!" And yet with unemployment 2 points higher than that magic number (up to that point), Reagan was reelected in an absolute landslide.

    So what I'm getting at is, we have to be careful in using past elections as an exact precedent in determining an exact number the unemployment has to reach to guarantee Obama's reelection. No such number exists - he could get reelected with higher unemployment than Reagan, and he could get defeated with lower unemployment than Reagan. What will matter, as I said in my other post, is the general sentiment of the country...not any concrete statistic.
    2. You explain yourself why that's a flawed point.

    3. Do you think this matters, at all? Do you think voters sit and say "Well, we just reelected two presidents in a row...not gonna vote for Obama for that very reason!"? This seems to be pretty meaningless.

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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by SPC View Post
    Reagan wasn't a moderate, and there are quite a few conservatives on the list right now. Incidently, my definition of a Moderate is a "watered down liberal".
    I meant that the Republicans have fielded no moderate presidential candidates since Reagan, and have alienated the independents with their candidates in this race already. Look at Bachmann, Pawlenty, etc. They're never going to beat Obama, but one of them might beat the other Republicans.
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  9. #19
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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by jamesrage View Post
    I think he is guaranteed his 2nd term. A lot of his opponents are either RINOs(Mitt Romney) or damaged goods(Sara Palin). Whether or not it is a landslide depends on who the republicans prop up in order to give Obama his 2nd term.
    I agree about how much of a mess the GOP field is right now. The candidates are so busy trying to prove how right wing they are, they're forgetting to do things like try to prove how good presidents they'd be. They're just trying to make Americans hate Obama, instead of making them like the candidates. Some positivity might help these folks out. Obama's had a lot of positivity, and still does.

    I don't really want to speculate on what happens. I thought Bush would be defeated in a landslide in '04, so I realize I'm not good at predictions. I hope Obama wins again, not only because he espouses way more of my ideals than republicans do, but also because I think he's a good person with a lot of integrity, who's held on as much as he can in the single most ideals-destroying job in the world. I have a lot of respect for him. And, sadly, it seems like the GOP candidates that I have respect for (like Romney and Paul), aren't lunatic fringe enough to unite their party.
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  10. #20
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    Re: Do you think Obama will be reelected in 2012

    Americans dumped Liberalism like a bag of manure in 2010........in 2012 they are going to finish the fertilizing.....and flush that Kenyan Turd.....in a landslide........

    .......so dont act surprised when it does happen libs........
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