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Can Obama be Beat in 2012

Can Obama be Beat in 2012?

  • Total voters
    25
Sure he can, but nobody knows what will happen.
 
cpwill said:
In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%. We would have to add a quarter of a million jobs every month between here and November 2012 to get down to 7. In addition, Obama would be the first third-two-term-president-in-a-row since the Jefferson-Madison-Monroe administrations in which there weren't even really competing parties. People are looking for... dare we say it... "change" :D



Right now, as I see it, the election is tilted heavy against the President. Republicans will have to really screw the goose or Obama will have to really pull something out of his hat to change that equation. He needs an economic boom that just ain't coming; or the Republican nominee to get caught in a sex scandal.
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The problem with those is you are using kinda irrelevant historical comparisons to predict future events, which does not work.
 
cpwill said:
In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%.
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That's such a flawed statistic though.

First of all, why ignore that FDR got reelected with an unemployment rate in the teens (I believe it was 14 or 15%)? Seems pretty significant, and no economic crisis since that time period has been quite as bad as the one Obama has faced in his first few years as president.

Secondly, let's look at the unemployment #s on election day for post-FDR incumbent presidents, up until that magical 7.2% number that Reagan got reelected with:
Truman, 1948 - 3.8% (reelected)
Eisenhower, 1956 - 4.3% (reelected)
Johnson, 1964 - 4.8% (reelectedish)
Nixon, 1972 - 5.3% (reelected)
Ford, 1976 - 7.8% (NOT reelected)
Carter, 1980 - 7.5% (NOT reelected)

So what I'm getting at is that in 1984, by your logic, you could've said "In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 5.3%. Thus, Reagan won't win!" And yet with unemployment 2 points higher than that magic number (up to that point), Reagan was reelected in an absolute landslide.

So what I'm getting at is, we have to be careful in using past elections as an exact precedent in determining an exact number the unemployment has to reach to guarantee Obama's reelection. No such number exists - he could get reelected with higher unemployment than Reagan, and he could get defeated with lower unemployment than Reagan. What will matter, as I said in my other post, is the general sentiment of the country...not any concrete statistic.
 
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Jimmy Carter will not see a third term.........or the US wont see a future.........
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X Factor said:
Simple question. Some are saying Obama's a shoe-in to get re-elected next year. What do you all think, is Obama an unbeatable juggernaut or not?
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If they prop up Palin then Obama is guaranteed his second term. If they prop up another RINO like McCain, Romney(although the media will swear its because evangelicals do not like Mormons not because he is one of the biggest RINOs) or Giuliani then Obama will still be guaranteed his 2nd term anyways. Personally I would like to see viable 3rd party candidate to try to end what is practically a two party monopoly.
 
jamesrage said:
If they prop up Palin then Obama is guaranteed his second term. If they prop up another RINO like McCain, Romney(although the media will swear its because evangelicals do not like Mormons not because he is one of the biggest RINOs) or Giuliani then Obama will still be guaranteed his 2nd term anyways. Personally I would like to see viable 3rd party candidate to try to end what is practically a two party monopoly.
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To get a viable third party candidate, you would need a third party that is inline with what a significant proportion of America believes in. Right now that is not the case.
 
X Factor said:
A third party candidate cannot win, I don't believe.
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I was suggesting a third party X...I said a republican like romney....not a far right candidate like bachman. what CPwill and others would call a Rino :)
 
If Sarah Palin or a tea partier is nominated, yes
If a moderate Republican is nominated, then he'll may or may not be beat, will be close
 
Right now, I'd put it at a 65/35 chance with regards to reelected / not reelected.

I think its substantially more likely that he wins, but I don't think its a forgone conclussion. I do think its a good bit to far out to make any kind of sizable claim though. A LOT can happen just between now and when the Republican candidate is announced, let alone before the Primaries for the Republicans even really get fully going.
 
disneydude said:
You didn't expect Clinton to be re-elected over Bob Dole? Are you serious?
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I just was an anti-Clinton kinda guy back then. Hindsite being 20-20, I now wish we had him back.
 
lpast said:
If a republican runs against Obama hes toast....if a far right teaparty candidate wins the primary he will win....
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... ah, yes, those tea party candidates sure made a difference in the Senate races of Nevada, Delaware and Colorado. Sorry, but I think the exact opposite is true. While this tea party nonsense seems to win the hearts of some conservatives, they are largely discounted as wack-a-doos by middle of the road voters. Winning the presidency is about two things: turning out your base (which the tea party candidate will do) and wooing the middle of the road voters (which the tea party will very much NOT do).
 
X Factor said:
Simple question. Some are saying Obama's a shoe-in to get re-elected next year. What do you all think, is Obama an unbeatable juggernaut or not?
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Yes, he is very vulnerable.... but to date, the Republicans have no one that can win. The biggest problem with the Republicans is they have become very impractical ideologues (redundant as the definition of ideologue includes impractical). They will not nominate anyone that can actually win the national election.
 
X Factor said:
Simple question. Some are saying Obama's a shoe-in to get re-elected next year. What do you all think, is Obama an unbeatable juggernaut or not?
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Like a drum.

From the architect of "It's the economy stupid":

This unemployment rate, for this long, is a humanitarian crisis of the first magnitude.
This is a terrible thing that's happened to people's lives.
James Carville​

I don't think he'd win his party's nomination if someone with half a brain ran against him... and Lee Atwater Carville was an advisor to the challenger.

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zimmer said:
Like a drum.

From the architect of "It's the economy stupid":

This unemployment rate, for this long, is a humanitarian crisis of the first magnitude.
This is a terrible thing that's happened to people's lives.
James Carville​

I don't think he'd win his party's nomination if someone with half a brain ran against him... and Lee Atwater Carville was an advisor to the challenger.

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Right, that 85% approval rating he has with Democrats sure is a burden.
 
Redress said:
To get a viable third party candidate, you would need a third party that is inline with what a significant proportion of America believes in. Right now that is not the case.
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Actually, if you want to get a viable third party candidate, you would have to change electoral laws since plurality voting naturally causes a two-party system to come about.

Duverger's law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
cpwill said:
James
Carville: 2012 could be ‘very rough’ for Obama, says civil unrest ‘imminently possible’


On College Campuses, Obama isn't Cool Anymore
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All of that may be true.

However, the roughness of 2012 on Obama is mutually exclusive to the roughness of 2012 on the GOP candidate. Just like the coolness of Obama on college campuses is mutually exclusive to the coolness of GOP candidates on college campuses.

If the GOP doesn't put up a candidate that is a good alternative (as opposed to a bad alternative) to Obama then Obama will still win.
 
Swizz said:
Right, that 85% approval rating he has with Democrats sure is a burden.
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85% of 20% doesn't amount to much, and are factored into the electoral equation.

What would be interesting... a challenge to Obama, and then watch what would happen. A challenger with half a brain would clean his clock. He has a record now, and it's nothing Oblamer can go to the bank on.

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samsmart said:
All of that may be true.

However, the roughness of 2012 on Obama is mutually exclusive to the roughness of 2012 on the GOP candidate. Just like the coolness of Obama on college campuses is mutually exclusive to the coolness of GOP candidates on college campuses.

If the GOP doesn't put up a candidate that is a good alternative (as opposed to a bad alternative) to Obama then Obama will still win.
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no, because you are assuming they will vote. youth and minorities came out in record numbers to put Obama into the White House in 2012. With both of those groups seeing double-digit unemployment today, a repeat of such a turnout is unlikely at best. Republicans will gain few young voters, but Obama will lose many.

All the GOP need put up at this point is an "acceptable" alternative.
 
zimmer said:
85% of 20% doesn't amount to much, and are factored into the electoral equation.

What would be interesting... a challenge to Obama, and then watch what would happen. A challenger with half a brain would clean his clock. He has a record now, and it's nothing Oblamer can go to the bank on.

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lol...where are you getting your numbers from?

Wouldn't matter if you're right anyway; Democrats are the primary voters in a Democratic primary. So 85% approval amongst Democrats is pretty untouchable.
 
Proud South Korean said:
If Sarah Palin or a tea partier is nominated, yes
If a moderate Republican is nominated, then he'll may or may not be beat, will be close
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If anything was learned from Nov. 2, 2010--The Largest Political Ass Whooping in History.......the extreme right (Like our Forefathers) represents the path to victory.

If anything was learned from the 2008 Elections........a "moderate"-"lets work together" middle or left of the road Republican..........is the sure way to defeat.
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Swizz said:
lol...where are you getting your numbers from?

Wouldn't matter if you're right anyway; Democrats are the primary voters in a Democratic primary. So 85% approval amongst Democrats is pretty untouchable.
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Carville exposed Obama's huge vulnerability. 9.1% unemployment after he got his Waste-u-lus passed.
Given the choice of a deeply damaged candidate and someone with a hope, that 85% number would melt like ice on hot asphalt.

It's the stupid economy stupid could be the grassroots slogan for 2012.

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zimmer said:
Carville exposed Obama's huge vulnerability. 9.1% unemployment after he got his Waste-u-lus passed.
Given the choice of a deeply damaged candidate and someone with a hope, that 85% number would melt like ice on hot asphalt.

It's the stupid economy stupid could be the grassroots slogan for 2012.

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all that, and you are still without a republican candidate who could beat Obama in '12
that's gotta suck for your side
 
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