View Poll Results: Can Obama be Beat in 2012?

Voters
30. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes

    23 76.67%
  • No

    7 23.33%
Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 50

Thread: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

  1. #21
    Liberal Fascist For Life!


    Redress's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Georgia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 03:38 AM
    Lean
    Very Liberal
    Posts
    93,344
    Blog Entries
    2

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Swizz View Post
    I really do not think there is any 'magic number' like so many seem to say. I think what will matter is if there is a sense that we have made progress economically. And even if that sense is in question, he still could win. Things look pretty ugly economically today, and yet Obama consistently outpolls every possible challenger.

    So I'd say that yeah, he's not invincible, but it's hard to imagine him losing.
    Nice first post, I gave you your first thanks. Welcome to the board here.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

  2. #22
    Jedi Master
    Captain America's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 01:36 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    18,672

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    I have to say that I'm not really sure. I never expected Bill Clinton or G.W. Bush to get re-elected but they both did.

    Personal opinion aside, just going from a "Mr. Spock" perspective I would have to say that, short of a major October surprise or some other measurable, unforgivable scandal, Obama's pretty much got it locked in. That being said, let us all remember that the political pendulum is always in constant motion, as we seen the last round of elections, even after the Obama landslide, many republicans were elected the next cycle.

    The question is how far it swings before the it swings back. If the elections were held today, Obama would be a shoe-in as the republicans aren't really doing that well in moderate, centrist America. Further, they really have no definitive platform or common agenda. Their candidates appear weak and not quite ready for prime time. And then there are those goof-balls semi-candidates sucking all of the air out of the room, distracting the more gullible right siders, with their snake-oil, carnival barker shows. I would venture to say those folks make up about 12-20% of the GOP voting block and they are so stoned on tea everyone is shying away from their sillyness as to not be made guilty by association. But they still need tthose folks, none-the-less. How can they suck up and yet remain seperated from them all at the same time? That's gonna be a tough one.

    No, I'm gonna have to say, get ready for 4 more years of Obama if things don't radically change.
    Last edited by Captain America; 06-07-11 at 12:40 AM.

    It's GREAT to be me. --- "45% liberal/55% conservative"
    Diplomacy is the art of saying 'nice doggy" until you can find a gun.

  3. #23
    Sage
    cpwill's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    USofA
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 11:03 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    57,148

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Gipper View Post
    It really depends on the economy. I say right now that if the unemployment rate is above 8.5% come November, he will lose to any remotely credible Republican candidate. If it's lower than 8.5, he will win a re-election almost independently of who he runs against.
    In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%. We would have to add a quarter of a million jobs every month between here and November 2012 to get down to 7. In addition, Obama would be the first third-two-term-president-in-a-row since the Jefferson-Madison-Monroe administrations in which there weren't even really competing parties. People are looking for... dare we say it... "change"



    Right now, as I see it, the election is tilted heavy against the President. Republicans will have to really screw the goose or Obama will have to really pull something out of his hat to change that equation. He needs an economic boom that just ain't coming; or the Republican nominee to get caught in a sex scandal.
    Last edited by cpwill; 06-07-11 at 12:37 AM.

  4. #24
    Sage
    disneydude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Last Seen
    12-15-17 @ 12:36 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    25,145

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    I voted "No" simply because there is no one that is currently running or likely to run that is going to beat him. Absent a stealth candidate that the GOP can bring forward, Obama will win.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

  5. #25
    Sage
    disneydude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Last Seen
    12-15-17 @ 12:36 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    25,145

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain America View Post
    I have to say that I'm not really sure. I never expected Bill Clinton or G.W. Bush to get re-elected but they both did.

    Personal opinion aside, just going from a "Mr. Spock" perspective I would have to say that, short of a major October surprise or some other measurable, unforgivable scandal, Obama's pretty much got it locked in. That being said, let us all remember that the political pendulum is always in constant motion, as we seen the last round of elections, even after the Obama landslide, many republicans were elected the next cycle.

    The question is how far it swings before the it swings back. If the elections were held today, Obama would be a shoe-in as the republicans aren't really doing that well in moderate, centrist America. Further, they really have no definitive platform or common agenda. Their candidates appear weak and not quite ready for prime time. And then there are those goof-balls semi-candidates sucking all of the air out of the room, distracting the more gullible right siders, with their snake-oil, carnival barker shows. I would venture to say those folks make up about 12-20% of the GOP voting block and they are so stoned on tea everyone is shying away from their sillyness as to not be made guilty by association. But they still need tthose folks, none-the-less. How can they suck up and yet remain seperated from them all at the same time? That's gonna be a tough one.

    No, I'm gonna have to say, get ready for 4 more years of Obama if things don't radically change.

    You didn't expect Clinton to be re-elected over Bob Dole? Are you serious?
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

  6. #26
    Professor
    Bigfoot 88's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Georgia
    Last Seen
    12-01-15 @ 06:31 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian - Right
    Posts
    2,027
    Blog Entries
    1

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    Sure he can, but nobody knows what will happen.
    "I have never understood why it is "greed" to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else's money." -Thomas Sowell

  7. #27
    Liberal Fascist For Life!


    Redress's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Georgia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 03:38 AM
    Lean
    Very Liberal
    Posts
    93,344
    Blog Entries
    2

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%. We would have to add a quarter of a million jobs every month between here and November 2012 to get down to 7. In addition, Obama would be the first third-two-term-president-in-a-row since the Jefferson-Madison-Monroe administrations in which there weren't even really competing parties. People are looking for... dare we say it... "change"



    Right now, as I see it, the election is tilted heavy against the President. Republicans will have to really screw the goose or Obama will have to really pull something out of his hat to change that equation. He needs an economic boom that just ain't coming; or the Republican nominee to get caught in a sex scandal.
    The problem with those is you are using kinda irrelevant historical comparisons to predict future events, which does not work.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

  8. #28
    Advisor Swizz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Last Seen
    12-05-12 @ 11:33 PM
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    351

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%.
    That's such a flawed statistic though.

    First of all, why ignore that FDR got reelected with an unemployment rate in the teens (I believe it was 14 or 15%)? Seems pretty significant, and no economic crisis since that time period has been quite as bad as the one Obama has faced in his first few years as president.

    Secondly, let's look at the unemployment #s on election day for post-FDR incumbent presidents, up until that magical 7.2% number that Reagan got reelected with:
    Truman, 1948 - 3.8% (reelected)
    Eisenhower, 1956 - 4.3% (reelected)
    Johnson, 1964 - 4.8% (reelectedish)
    Nixon, 1972 - 5.3% (reelected)
    Ford, 1976 - 7.8% (NOT reelected)
    Carter, 1980 - 7.5% (NOT reelected)

    So what I'm getting at is that in 1984, by your logic, you could've said "In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 5.3%. Thus, Reagan won't win!" And yet with unemployment 2 points higher than that magic number (up to that point), Reagan was reelected in an absolute landslide.

    So what I'm getting at is, we have to be careful in using past elections as an exact precedent in determining an exact number the unemployment has to reach to guarantee Obama's reelection. No such number exists - he could get reelected with higher unemployment than Reagan, and he could get defeated with lower unemployment than Reagan. What will matter, as I said in my other post, is the general sentiment of the country...not any concrete statistic.
    Last edited by Swizz; 06-07-11 at 01:01 AM.

  9. #29
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Last Seen
    07-25-13 @ 08:55 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    1,951

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    Jimmy Carter will not see a third term.........or the US wont see a future.........
    .
    .
    .
    .

  10. #30
    Sage
    jamesrage's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    A place where common sense exists
    Last Seen
    Today @ 06:03 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Conservative
    Posts
    31,068

    Re: Can Obama be Beat in 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by X Factor View Post
    Simple question. Some are saying Obama's a shoe-in to get re-elected next year. What do you all think, is Obama an unbeatable juggernaut or not?
    If they prop up Palin then Obama is guaranteed his second term. If they prop up another RINO like McCain, Romney(although the media will swear its because evangelicals do not like Mormons not because he is one of the biggest RINOs) or Giuliani then Obama will still be guaranteed his 2nd term anyways. Personally I would like to see viable 3rd party candidate to try to end what is practically a two party monopoly.
    "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murder is less to fear"

    Cicero Marcus Tullius

Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •