I have to say that I'm not really sure. I never expected Bill Clinton or G.W. Bush to get re-elected but they both did.
Personal opinion aside, just going from a "Mr. Spock" perspective I would have to say that, short of a major October surprise or some other measurable, unforgivable scandal, Obama's pretty much got it locked in. That being said, let us all remember that the political pendulum is always in constant motion, as we seen the last round of elections, even after the Obama landslide, many republicans were elected the next cycle.
The question is how far it swings before the it swings back. If the elections were held today, Obama would be a shoe-in as the republicans aren't really doing that well in moderate, centrist America. Further, they really have no definitive platform or common agenda. Their candidates appear weak and not quite ready for prime time. And then there are those goof-balls semi-candidates sucking all of the air out of the room, distracting the more gullible right siders, with their snake-oil, carnival barker shows. I would venture to say those folks make up about 12-20% of the GOP voting block and they are so stoned on tea everyone is shying away from their sillyness as to not be made guilty by association. But they still need tthose folks, none-the-less. How can they suck up and yet remain seperated from them all at the same time? That's gonna be a tough one.
No, I'm gonna have to say, get ready for 4 more years of Obama if things don't radically change.
Last edited by Captain America; 06-06-11 at 10:40 PM.
It's GREAT to be me. --- "45% liberal/55% conservative"
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'nice doggy" until you can find a gun.
Right now, as I see it, the election is tilted heavy against the President. Republicans will have to really screw the goose or Obama will have to really pull something out of his hat to change that equation. He needs an economic boom that just ain't coming; or the Republican nominee to get caught in a sex scandal.
Last edited by cpwill; 06-06-11 at 10:37 PM.
“If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures.”
- Alexander Hamilton. Spiritual father of #NeverTrump
I voted "No" simply because there is no one that is currently running or likely to run that is going to beat him. Absent a stealth candidate that the GOP can bring forward, Obama will win.
Women (Nasty or otherwise) are going to be the reason that Donald Trump is NEVER President!
Sure he can, but nobody knows what will happen.
"I have never understood why it is "greed" to want to keep the money you have earned but not greed to want to take somebody else's money." -Thomas Sowell
First of all, why ignore that FDR got reelected with an unemployment rate in the teens (I believe it was 14 or 15%)? Seems pretty significant, and no economic crisis since that time period has been quite as bad as the one Obama has faced in his first few years as president.
Secondly, let's look at the unemployment #s on election day for post-FDR incumbent presidents, up until that magical 7.2% number that Reagan got reelected with:
Truman, 1948 - 3.8% (reelected)
Eisenhower, 1956 - 4.3% (reelected)
Johnson, 1964 - 4.8% (reelectedish)
Nixon, 1972 - 5.3% (reelected)
Ford, 1976 - 7.8% (NOT reelected)
Carter, 1980 - 7.5% (NOT reelected)
So what I'm getting at is that in 1984, by your logic, you could've said "In the post-war era, no President has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 5.3%. Thus, Reagan won't win!" And yet with unemployment 2 points higher than that magic number (up to that point), Reagan was reelected in an absolute landslide.
So what I'm getting at is, we have to be careful in using past elections as an exact precedent in determining an exact number the unemployment has to reach to guarantee Obama's reelection. No such number exists - he could get reelected with higher unemployment than Reagan, and he could get defeated with lower unemployment than Reagan. What will matter, as I said in my other post, is the general sentiment of the country...not any concrete statistic.
Last edited by Swizz; 06-06-11 at 11:01 PM.
Jimmy Carter will not see a third term.........or the US wont see a future.........
"A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murder is less to fear"
Cicero Marcus Tullius