Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Reconcili

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51090

CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have estimated the budgetary effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Reconciliation Act, as passed by the Senate. CBO and JCT estimate that enacting H.R. 3762 would decrease deficits by about $474 billion over the 2016–2025 period.

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One of the big cause of the savings woul apaprently be just getting rid of the drag on the economy that Obamacare is.

That estimate includes two components: Excluding macroeconomic feedback effects, the act would reduce deficits by about $282 billion. In addition, the changes in economic output and other macroeconomic variables that would result from enacting the legislation would reduce deficits by about $193 billion, CBO and JCT estimate.

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The biggest contributor to this savings, would be ending subsidies - which are only getting bigger, as premium goes up:

The largest budgetary effects of enacting the legislation would stem from:

• Repealing subsidies for health insurance coverage obtained through exchanges beginning in 2018 and, prior to that year, eliminating the limitation on the amount people would have to repay if the premium tax credit they receive during the year exceeds the allowed amount based on their actual income;
• Repealing the optional expansion of eligibility for Medicaid that was established in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), beginning in 2018;
• Eliminating penalties associated with the requirements that most people obtain health insurance coverage and that large employers offer their employees health insurance coverage that meets specified standards, while keeping those requirements in place, beginning in 2016;
• Repealing the federal excise tax imposed on some health insurance plans with high premiums; and
• Repealing many of the provisions of the ACA that are estimated to increase federal revenues (apart from the effect of the provisions related to insurance coverage). Those with the most significant budgetary effects include the Hospital Insurance payroll tax rate for high-income taxpayers, a surtax on those taxpayers’ net investment income, and annual fees on health insurers.

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Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51090



One of the big cause of the savings woul apaprently be just getting rid of the drag on the economy that Obamacare is.



The biggest contributor to this savings, would be ending subsidies - which are only getting bigger, as premium goes up:

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One thing I have learned is that there many ways to harm a country and its people, and most of them are home grown; we don't need any foreign terrorists to do it.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51090

One of the big cause of the savings woul apaprently be just getting rid of the drag on the economy that Obamacare is.

The biggest contributor to this savings, would be ending subsidies - which are only getting bigger, as premium goes up:

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Buck, there are so many things to address, I just don't know if I can get to them all. first, its good to see that conservatives have abandoned the official conservative narrative of "wah wah the cbo is lying". It was such a tired, dishonest and lazy narrative. Its so refreshing to see cons are so happily posting threads based on what the CBO says. Second, congratulations on actually quoting the CBO instead of "paraphrasing" what they said.

anyhoo, let's get to the good stuff. Maybe you didn't get the memo but the conservative concern for deficits that was born on 1/20/2009 is a little passé. Just look at the budget busting tax cuts being proposed by the republican candidates. the leading candidate's plan is the most ridiculuous. Which is probably one of the reasons he's leading.

"Even assuming the tax cuts would promote economic growth, the pro-business Tax Foundation estimates the Trump plan would reduce revenues to the Treasury by more than $10 trillion over 10 years."

Is Trump’s Tax Plan Revenue Neutral?

So I'm not saying I'm against reducing the deficit. I'm not saying 50 billion a year isn't a significant reduction (cons think its insignificant). I'm just saying reducing the deficit without denying 22 million people healthcare is better. Obamacare reduces the deficit (the CBO said it) without taking health care from 22 million. Your new favorite plan kicks 22 million off insurance.

"CBO and JCT estimate that enacting H.R. 3762 would increase the number of people without health insurance coverage—relative to current-law projections—by about 22 million people in most years after 2017."

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

And buck, you have railed and railed against "guarantees" and blamed democrats for the destructive effects of guarantees without mandates. You simply ignored the republicans role in in proposing and enacting them. republicans even had guarantees in there silly alternative to Obamacare in 2010. But the plan you now think is the next best thing since sliced bread has guarantees. and without mandates even.

"First, the provisions related to coverage yielding the largest budgetary effects would not be repealed until 2018. Second, the act would leave in place certain rules established by the ACA that govern health insurance markets, including guaranteed issue and renewability of coverage, the requirement that health insurance cover certain health benefits, and rating rule"

yes, those valiant and courageous republicans have a plan to repeal the mandate and subsidies, leaves the market reforms intact and leave the guaranteed availability intact. which brings up another issue. You've falsely equated "guarantees" with "mandates". Once again, republicans prove I was right that "guarantees" does not equal "mandates".

buck said:

I'm still waiting for you to answer those questions I posed to you regarding the mandate. I noticed you beat a hasty retreat from the thread after I asked. Once you answer, I'll get back to you and explain why you simply do not understand the issue and why the guarantee and mandate go hand in hand.

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Hey buck, tell everybody what happens when you have "guaranteed issue" without mandates. ("hasty retreat" is worthy of its own thread but will have to wait).

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

And buck, you have railed and railed against "guarantees"

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Yup. Guarantee without mandates - if it really is in the bill, and I don't know nor care - won't work.

Never argued otherwise. Even though I still doubt you even understand the issue.

Back to the topic. Billions in cost savings, increased economic output.. Not too bad.

Or put another way, Obamacare costs Billions and suppresses economic output.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Oh the conservative media was quick to jump on the "bandwagon" touting the "big" savings. while we wait for buck, lets look at a typical lying conservative "editorial" on the subject. IBD is always a good source of lying conservative narratives.

"The findings stand in sharp contrast to promises by President Obama and other Democrats that ObamaCare would accelerate economic growth and lower federal deficits."

Obamacare Repeal Would Cut Deficit, Boost Growth -- CBO - Investors.com

Capital-Hill/121415-785198-obamacare-repeal-would-cut-deficit-boost-growth-cbo.htm

“the promises” were the CBO telling us that Obamacare lowered the deficit. The lying editorial has to categorize it as “President Obama and other Democrats” said it. Now this lie accomplishes two things, it gives the impression that President Obama and dems lied about Obamacare and it allows yet another lying conservative editorial tap dance around the lying conservative “wah wah, the CBO is lying” narrative.

Anyhoo, HR 3762 does reduce the deficit. Sure, eliminating subsidies, eliminating the mandate and eliminating the Medicaid expansion while keeping the cost savings of Obamacare does reduce the deficit more than just Obamacare (remember, the CBO told you Obamacare reduces the deficit). I just think reducing the deficit while not depriving 22 million of healthcare is better.

and since buck will eventually assure us that the republican plan of guaranteed issue without mandates will cause a death spiral, he can tell you HR 3762 will eventually end up depriving everyone in the non group market healthcare.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

Anyhoo, HR 3762 does reduce the deficit.

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Great. Then we agree. Beyond that, though, it helps increase economic output. Oops.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

Yup. Guarantee without mandates - if it really is in the bill, and I don't know nor care - won't work.

Never argued otherwise. Even though I still doubt you even understand the issue.

Back to the topic. Billions in cost savings, increased economic output.. Not too bad.

Or put another way, Obamacare costs Billions and suppresses economic output.

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oh buck, not your best deflection. and just so you know, I understand perfectly. You're the one who falsely equates guaranteed issue with mandates. Your the one who ignored republicans implementing those destructive policies. And you seem to be trying to deflect from the fact that republicans are at it again.

mmmm, saves billions and helps the ecomomy? great stuff from the group that does the opposite. don't compare Obamacare to your magic plan that even you know will destroy the insurance markets. Compare it to the silly GOP alternative from 2010 and the actual GOP plan of "status quo".

buck said:

Those states were stupid to think that could have any chance of suceeding. As evidence, let's see the results in the guarantee issue state and see why mandates to purchase are needed if you go with guarantee issue - the effect of anti-selection is just too high:

Just a short synopsis. I still don't expect you to get it, but if you have guarantee issue you need mandates.

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Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

Great. Then we agree. Beyond that, though, it helps increase economic output. Oops.

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buck, cons are the ones who obediently call the CBO liars then obediently believe the CBO when told to believe it. yes, the republican plan to destroy non group coverage will reduce the deficit about 50 billion a year. Yes, getting rid of health insurance for 22 million people saves money. Hooray!

hey, remember when republicans scoffed at President Obama's plan to let the Bush tax cuts EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED for the top 2 %. yea, reducing the deficit 80 billion a year wasn't big enough for conservatives. in spite of the non stop ranting, conservatives weren't really interested in reducing the deficit. (just look at the republican candidates budget busting deficit engorging tax cuts). But boy oh boy, kick 22 million people off insurance to save less than what they scoff at and magic presto, its the greatest thing since sliced bread.

I'm so enjoying HR 3762.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

Yes

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All the rest of that nonsense just to say you agree... really was unnecessary.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

All the rest of that nonsense just to say you agree... really was unnecessary.

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Nonsense? Oh buck, what a sad response for a wordsmith of your caliber but I understand your dilemma. You’re trying to limit the discussion to just the deficit reduction number. You cant even discuss how it reduces the deficit. I’m free to discuss all of HR 3762 in all its glory. For example, I can discuss how conservative editorials lie about 3762, how 3762 would destroy the non group health insurance market in the every state, how it kicks 22 million people to the street and how it proves once again republicans are unfit to govern . You can only post “hey look, big number”.

And buck, I’m also free to discuss how you’ve had trouble cutting and pasting what the CBO says, how conservative concerns for the deficit is just more flamming hypocrisy, how conservatives obediently parroted “wah wah the CBO is lying” but now obediently believe them, how you’ve railed against guarantees without mandates and how you falsely blame democrats for it.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

Nonsense? Oh buck, what a sad response for a wordsmith of your caliber but I understand your dilemma. You’re trying to limit the discussion to just the deficit reduction number. You cant even discuss how it reduces the deficit. I’m free to discuss all of HR 3762 in all its glory. For example, I can discuss how conservative editorials lie about 3762, how 3762 would destroy the non group health insurance market in the every state, how it kicks 22 million people to the street and how it proves once again republicans are unfit to govern . You can only post “hey look, big number”.

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Not really. Just not too into discussing the stupidity that spouts out. If I were, I would mention how 50 billion is nothing to you, but 80 billion is so much that it totally justifies (essentially) stealing from those that earned it. But im not interested in engaging, so I won't mention it.

Instead, ill just let you go on, while pointing out that we agree. Obama care costs and hurts economic output

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

Not really. Just not too into discussing the stupidity that spouts out. If I were, I would mention how 50 billion is nothing to you, but 80 billion is so much that it totally justifies (essentially) stealing from those that earned it. But im not interested in engaging, so I won't mention it.

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poor buck, poor passive aggressive buck. See how your agenda forces you to post silly hyperbole and dishonesty. Your dishonesty is ignoring that I've already stated 50 billion is not an insignificant amount. But it is an insignificant amount to conservatives. Its just another thing that proves conservatives are flaming hypocrites where deficits are concerned. Anyhoo, its exactly this flaming hypocrisy that forces you to resort to such silly hyperbole. Simply letting the Bush tax cuts EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED for the top 2 % is not "stealing". But lets face it, you hitched your wagon to HR 3762 so you really have no choice but to pull out all the stops. Sadly once again integrity is the first victim in your blind obedience to a failed ideology.

here's me proving that 80 billion is an insignificant amount according to conservatives.

Conservative said:

You see the top 2% making a difference between deficits and surplus but the majority see that 2% what it is, a drop in the bucket even if generated a total of 80 billion per year

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see how he called 80 billion a "drop in the bucket". if 80 billion a year is a drop in the bucket in 2010 when cons were literally foaming at the mouth about deficits, what's 50 billion 8 years later? yea, a smaller drop in the bucket. And as a % of GDP, smaller still. And this "even smaller drop in the bucket " also kicks 22 million off the insurance rolls and destroys the non group insurance market in the entire United states. Ouch!

buck, what is it about the conservative agenda that makes you resort to such childish and dishonest posts?

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

Your dishonesty is ignoring that I've already stated 50 billion is not an insignificant amount.

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Oh great. Then we agree. Obamacare sure is expensive. On top of that, it hurts economic output. So much wrong with your post, but as previously stated.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

Oh great. Then we agree. Obamacare sure is expensive. On top of that, it hurts economic output. So much wrong with your post, but as previously stated.

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sorry buck, I don't think that adequately addresses the fact that I clearly stated that 50 billion is not an insignificant amount, conservatives do think its an insignificant amount and you dishonestly tried to claim I agreed with conservatives. I get it buck, you cant discuss HR 3762 in an honest and intelligent fashion. what is it about the conservative agenda that makes you resort to such childish and dishonest posts?

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

sorry buck, I don't think that adequately addresses the fact that I clearly stated that 50 billion is not an insignificant amount, conservatives do think its an insignificant amount and you dishonestly tried to claim I agreed with conservatives. I get it buck, you cant discuss HR 3762 in an honest and intelligent fashion. what is it about the conservative agenda that makes you resort to such childish and dishonest posts?

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Take it up with someone that wants to engage you. I prefer to laugh at you while you try to "debate' others.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

Take it up with someone that wants to engage you. I prefer to laugh at you while you try to "debate' others.

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Oh buck, you’re hysterical. You don’t want to “engage” me at a debate forum in a thread you started. Here’s some advice: simply stop hitting the “engage” button. Thanks to your thread I get to continue to show the flaming incompetence, dishonesty and hypocrisy of republicans that proves they are unfit to govern. Your inability to respond in an honest and intelligent manner is why you’re trying to “whine” me away.
And buck, if I posted something you thought was funny, you wouldn’t have to imply I’ve posted it. See buck, I’m not implying you’ve posted some hilarious posts, I’m posting them. Here’s another good one. This is where you’re blame dems for republicans implementing and proposing guarantees without mandates

buck said:

this type of bill is something that would normally be a democrat cause - subverting the free market in order to be fair and compassionate.

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so speaking of guarantees, how you reconcile that republicans are again proposing guarantees without mandates in HR 3762? oh yea, you whine at me.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

Oh buck, you’re hysterical.

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At least we agree. It's expensive and hurts economic output.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

At least we agree. It's expensive and hurts economic output.

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Look, buck hit the "engage" button again. didn't you just whine about "engaging" me in a debate forum in a thread you started? Yes, yes you did. Anyhoo, don't you consider it a teensy bit dishonest to say "covering 17 million people and lowering the deficit" is expensive? Sure, it cost more than ending subsidies, keeping the cost saving parts of Obamacare and depriving 22 million people healthcare but that's simply not reality. Compare Obamacare to the silly plan republicans "proposed" in 2010 that cost more than Obamacare and covered fewer people. Or even better, compare it to the official republican plan of "status quo" that cost more and covered 17 million (and counting) fewer Americans. Hey, just think how expensive the latest republican fantasy will be when it destroys the non group market in every state. oh that's right, you're trying to pretend not know that the latest lying pandering republican "plan" wont destroy the entire non group coverage market. what will that do to economic output? speaking of economic output have you already forgetten the Great Bush Recession?

Hey just for laughs, remember how you told me "the CBO said Obamacare increases the deficit". Here's where you backed up " the cbo said Obamacare increases the deficit". notice how its not a quote from the CBO.

buck said:

If not for Obamcare the increased taxes could be used for deficit reduction. Because of obamcare, the government now has less ability to increase income and less ability to control the deficit. Howeer, I also believe that once they look at a full 10 years of costs and a full 10 years of collections, they will find it is not even deficit neutral in itself.

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Like I said, I’m not implying you’ve posted some hilarious posts, I’m posting them.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

didn't you just whine about "engaging" me in a debate forum in a thread you started?

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Did I? Shrug. I'm just happy we agree that Obamacare is expensive and hurting economic output. Apparently those evil conservatives and Vern can agree after-all.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

Did I? Shrug. I'm just happy we agree that Obamacare is expensive and hurting economic output. Apparently those evil conservatives and Vern can agree after-all.

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buck, I agree with the CBO. Conservatives are the ones who hypocritically and dishonestly called the CBO liars. I don't agree with your dishonest paraphrasing of what the CBO says. (remember, you have a history of intentionally “misquoting” the CBO). I don’t agree with your words of “expensive or hurts economic output”. Nobody is arguing that it’s not cheaper to kick 22 million people from insurance. And Buck, I don’t have to lie when I say we both agree that HR 3762 will destroy non group coverage in the entire United states. (its why you don’t want to “engage” me).

Again buck, Obamacare is cheaper and better than the silly republican plan from 2010 and the official republican plan of “status quo”. Its funny watching you flop around trying to maintain your narrative while not “engaging” any relevant facts. Lets review what you desperately cant “engage”:
-Your previous dishonest claims of what the CBO said
-The official conservative narrative of “wah wah, the CBO is lying”
-Conservatives flaming hypocrisy concerning deficits (and now economic output)
-Your new favorite bill will destroy the non group market in the entire country
-Your dishonest “paraphrasing” of my posts (this is SOP for you)

Oh and I almost forgot, HR 3762 proves I was right to say “guarantee does not equal mandate”. You railed and railed at me for posting that. Actually, the silly republican alternative in 2010 proved me right. So HR 3762 proves me right again.

shrug indeed.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

buck, I agree with the CBO.

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Perfect.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

Perfect.

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Buck, I just have to laugh. I’ve just never seen someone so desperate to not discuss the thread topic in a thread they started. So just to be clear, we’re not discussing that HR 3762 kicks 22 million off insurance and will destroy the non group coverage market in the entire US? I understand your reluctance to discuss your dishonest “misparaphrasing” of the CBO and my posts. I understand your reluctance to discuss the hypocritical concerns for deficits. I understand your reluctance to discuss that “wah wah the CBO lies” is no longer the official conservative narrative but surely we can discuss the actual details of HR 3762.

But I kinda got that impression when you pretended not to know that HR 3762 left guaranteed access intact even after I cut and pasted the part from the CBO analysis that said exactly that.

buck said:

Yup. Guarantee without mandates - if it really is in the bill, and I don't know nor care - won't work.

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It just seems like you ignored my post and your own link to try to pretend it may not be in the bill.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

Vern said:

Buck, I just have to laugh.

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Wonderful.

Re: Budgetary Effects of H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Recon

buck said:

Wonderful.

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Hey Buck, look. the LA times says you're right that this Obamacare repeal will cause a death spiral

GOP's latest Obamacare repeal bill would send premiums skyward
"But they must be counting on President Obama to veto it, because otherwise it will send premiums skyrocketing and create havoc in the market for individual insurance policies."

GOP's latest Obamacare repeal bill would send premiums skyward - LA Times

Well to be fair, you didn't bring it up in this thread. I had to remind you of your opinion. oops, I forgot, you don't want to discuss the thread topic in the thread you started.