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Theoretically: Chinese military VS Japanese military. Who would win?

Surtr said:
Manpower has everything to do with it. You say modern warfare like somehow location, manpower, and logistics magically don't apply anymore.
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Umm... how would manpower apply? Japan has a fully staffed and equipped naval and aerial arm. This is not a land war, the issue is expressed in terms of planes and ships, not men. How is China going to march across the Pacific Ocean?
 
Sherman123 said:
Umm... how would manpower apply? Japan has a fully staffed and equipped naval and aerial arm. This is not a land war, the issue is expressed in terms of planes and ships, not men. How is China going to march across the Pacific Ocean?
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Pacific Ocean? Try the East China Sea.
 
Surtr said:
You mean the East China Sea?
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Yes, precisely. The conflict is naval and aerial in nature. If somehow China denudes the Japanese air defense grid, wins control of the skies, and sinks or routs most of its fleets then yes China could begin the process of planning an invasion. As it stands they have barely any amphibious troop transport vessels, and any invasion would require massive planning and the securing of a deep water port or harbor capable of accepting commercial freighters and trawlers shangheied into a role as troop transports. To do any of this the naval-air battle space has to be controlled and won, before it can even be considered. Moreover even then an invasion would take a significant amount of time to properly plan and carry out and would be exceedingly difficult.
 
Sherman123 said:
You have yet to explain why it would be impossible to win a war with China in the northern Pacific. The reason no one is interested in discussing Chinese troop numbers is because it is irrelevant to the scenario being posed. If you think otherwise, please substantively explain why.
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After rteading a few of your posts, I guess we call you "Captain War Games" right?

And, "yet to explain"??

The reason I mentioned numbers of troops is becasue you didn't read the OP. It also says that it would be a convetional war as well.

Nobody can win a conventional war with China because they have over a billion people crom which to draw.

I hadn't said anyting about the OP link, and I thought were going to tell me that this was just another stupid gun thread.
 
jet57 said:
After rteading a few of your posts, I guess we call you "Captain War Games" right?

And, "yet to explain"??

The reason I mentioned numbers of troops is becasue you didn't read the OP. It also says that it would be a convetional war as well.

Nobody can win a conventional war with China because they have over a billion people crom which to draw.

I hadn't said anyting about the OP link, and I thought were going to tell me that this was just another stupid gun thread.
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I understand this would be a conventional war, and I'm explaining that in a conventional war between China and Japan the field of conflict would be naval and aerial. How could it be anything else? This has been amply explained by several people. China cannot catapult a billion people across the sea.
 
Surtr said:
Part of Japan's new constitution following the Second World War is that they dissolved their military forces. They have an unstructured civilian defensive force that isn't capable of conducting military operations.
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It is capable of conducting military operations, simply not offensive military operations.

The entire structure of their SDF is to hold off an enemy until the United States can respond. And if anybody think sthe US will not respond, they are midding more then a few brain cells.

And I wish China, Russia, or anybody else a lot of luck if they think they can counter the US Navy.
 
jet57 said:
After rteading a few of your posts, I guess we call you "Captain War Games" right?

And, "yet to explain"??

The reason I mentioned numbers of troops is becasue you didn't read the OP. It also says that it would be a convetional war as well.

Nobody can win a conventional war with China because they have over a billion people crom which to draw.

I hadn't said anyting about the OP link, and I thought were going to tell me that this was just another stupid gun thread.
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Actually, a conventional war against China is very winnable.

It all depends on what the objectives are.

This is where many civilians tend to loose total understanding of military operations. In their mind, every war is like WWII. A bloody battle to the end. However, that is most often not the case, and the destruction of the other nation is not always what is needed.

I can give you a long list of wars that ended with one side or the other achieving it's goals, and the other side still standing at the end. And I can give you possible examples here:

Imagine China decided to try and enforce a blockade on Taiwan. Now this is exactly the kind of situation that would more then likely result in a war. And more then likely the US would get involved very quickly. However, would the desired "end state" be the destruction of China, or simply a lifting of the blockade? I can assure you, it would be the latter. And imagine if China invaded India. Would the US get involved with the idea of destroying CHina, or simply expelling them from India?

This is where your almost total lack of understaning of almost any military matters is shockingly obvious. You are approaching this like a child playing a game. And the fact that you are insulting several military professionals is rather rude. We were not trying to make you look stupid, just to inform you where your huge and obvious mistakes are.

But you continue to act like a child, and we will likely continue to treat you as one. When you are ready to learn how military operations are really run, let us know.
 
jet57 said:
Video games? Boy??

Do you know why we have nuclear weapons in this world? Does it occurr to you that the reason is because nobody could win a convential war with the Chinese?

But, you admit that I was right about them being able to invade Japan.

That's enough.
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Anybody is capable of invading anybody. Tunisia is capable of invading Russia, but that does not mean they have a snowball chance in hell of winning. So yes, China can invade Japan, but they have no chance of winning such a campaign.

And do not bring in nukes. Do you know what you call the nation that starts a nuclear exchange?

Glass Parkinglot.

And yes, we have already won at least 1 conventional war against China. YOu may have heard of it, it was a little known incident known as the "Korean War". Where 1.3 million Chinese marched South, and over 400,000 were killed, 480,000 were wounded, and 21,000 were captured. All in all, a pretty piss-poor performance.

Then there was another war involving China, that is the Sino-Vietnamese War. Overall, 400,000 Chinese invaded Vietnam, and basically had their butts handed to them (26,000 killed, 37,000 wounded, over 400 tanks destroyed).

China is in many ways a paper tiger. Historically, they tend to do a pretty poor job in war, even when they have overwhelming odds on their side. Sino-Japanese wars, Sino-Vietnamese War, Korean War, their only major victories were against nations like Tibet and Burma.

These are the facts, like it or not. Heck, China does not even have a decent bomber! Their only Strategic Bomber is the Xian H-6, a locally made copy of the venerable Soviet Tu-16 (designed in 1952, retired by Russia in 1993).

In fact, China is the only nation int eh world that still uses the Tu-16 or a variant. All former Warsaw Pact nations retired them by 1995, and even Egypt retired them by 2000. The thing will be a gigantic joke if they tried to ever used them against a major nation with modern air defense systems.
 
Oozlefinch said:
It is capable of conducting military operations, simply not offensive military operations.

The entire structure of their SDF is to hold off an enemy until the United States can respond. And if anybody think sthe US will not respond, they are midding more then a few brain cells.

And I wish China, Russia, or anybody else a lot of luck if they think they can counter the US Navy.
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The Mongolian Navy would take you on Grinch.
 
Sherman123 said:
Yes, precisely. The conflict is naval and aerial in nature. If somehow China denudes the Japanese air defense grid, wins control of the skies, and sinks or routs most of its fleets then yes China could begin the process of planning an invasion. As it stands they have barely any amphibious troop transport vessels, and any invasion would require massive planning and the securing of a deep water port or harbor capable of accepting commercial freighters and trawlers shangheied into a role as troop transports. To do any of this the naval-air battle space has to be controlled and won, before it can even be considered. Moreover even then an invasion would take a significant amount of time to properly plan and carry out and would be exceedingly difficult.
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I'm starting to think that you greatly underestimate the capabilities of China.

Oozlefinch said:
It is capable of conducting military operations, simply not offensive military operations.

The entire structure of their SDF is to hold off an enemy until the United States can respond. And if anybody think sthe US will not respond, they are midding more then a few brain cells.

And I wish China, Russia, or anybody else a lot of luck if they think they can counter the US Navy.
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Yep, I was just going off the hypothetical which seems to be just Japan vs China. If just Japan on their own, Japan loses.
 
I think folks are looking at the size of the immense Chinese army vs. the Japanese army and think this is a simple equation. From the pure standpoint of troop comparisons it is, but only in a pure land war. In the case of China vs. Japan, China must get it's troops across the East China Sea, and establish a significant beachhead, in order to utilize their troop strength advantage. So before troop strength vs troop strength is a factor, we are looking at an air and sea war. So that is the first thing to look at.

China is poorly equipped for amphibious landings as Oozlefinch points out. That means China can only land small numbers of troops at a time. The problem with this is that a Chinese landing force may be so small, it could be wiped out or overrun before additional troops can be landed to support them. And then Japan's submarines are far more advanced that China's and China has only a slight numerical advantage. I'd take the Japanese subs over the Chinese ones any day. Japanese subs can merely wait silently, avoiding detection by moving little, for Chinese transports and sink them as they bear. China has few enough transports and cannot afford to lose any.

In "combat" aircraft, China has a 3 to 1 numerical advantage. But then again, China has 25 times the landmass to defend. China could not possibly commit all of their air forces to a battle with Japan. Hungry Russians wait to the North watching keenly. China and Russia are NOT good friends, so China must guard her flanks. China could reasonably commit one fourth of her air units to this campaign, but that would put her as a numerical disadvantage compared to Japan. Then there's the qualitative measure. While China's Su-30MKK, J-11 (Su-27 copy), and J-10 are quite good aircraft, they are quite outmatched by the technology in Japan's most numerous aircraft in the F-15J, F-15EJ, and F-2 (upgraded version of F-16). Most of the PLAAF and PLAN aircraft are very old J-7s (Mig-21 copy). Approximately 99 of them are J-7IIE which are quite dangerous, but technologically outmatched in a BVR combat environment. Meanwhile, Japan's air units can operate defensively from home bases, while Chinese fighters will be operating at the limit of their combat radiius, and must rely on air-to-air refueling. These tankers would be vulnerable to Japanese fighters. Japan should enjoy a 4:1 kill ratio at the very least against all Chinese fighters taken as a whole. And this would grant Japan air superiority over the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan.

Thus an amphibious landing would be extremely costly for China. They would have to cobble together many landing ships not originally designed for amphibious work to have any hope of establishing a beachhead. It's not impossible for China, but the cost will be high if it has any chance at all.
 
Joechilli said:
The Mongolian Navy would take you on Grinch.
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internet-troll.jpg
 
Surtr said:
Yep, I was just going off the hypothetical which seems to be just Japan vs China. If just Japan on their own, Japan loses.
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Actually EagleEye did a pretty good wrap-up of how things stand, so I will just add a few things into the mix.

Do not expect Japan to be an agressor, if there is a war it will be a case of China attacking Japan. And this has fail written all over it in big bold letters.

I mean, just look at the order of battle for Operation Downfall. The entire First Army was expected to be the first wave (200,000 Soldiers and Marines), followed by the Sixth Army, with the Eight Army in reserve (another 200-250,000). Within the first week a million Soldiers and Marines were expected to have landed on Japan.

And the landings were to be supported by 3 US Battle Fleets (Third, Sixth and Seventh). And between them they had over 50 aircraft carriers. 9 Battleships, over 500 destroyers, and well over 1,000 amphibious warfare ships.

In addition, it would be supported by the Fifth, Seventh, Eighth, Thirteenth, and Twentieth Air Forces (consisting of over 2,500 heavy bombers).

This is a real-life buildup for an invasion of Japan. And even this was a questionable number of forces, and losses would have been heavy.

And somebody honestly expects me to believe that China could pull it off now with it's tiny navy, limited amphibious forces, and almost total inexperience?

Here is what would happen in RL if this was tried.

Japanese and American intelligence watches the build-up and loading of the ships with growing concern, messages fly back and forth between the 3 countries.

The ships set sail, and the US and Japan go to the UN demanding them to be stopped. They set up a blackade line, and state that any ships loaded with soldiers or war supplies that cross this line will be seen as an act of war. Meanwhile all available ships in the Indian and Pacific Oceans are surged to the area. Soldiers and Marines flood into Mainland and Okinawa, as Kadena starts to burst at the seams with the number of aircract. PATRIOT and THAAD batteries are rushed in from stateside.

Trailing the fleet are several US subs, tasked with only following them. Overhead you have US aircraft on a constant CAP.

Now I bet that this will be much like the Cuban Missile Crisis at this point. The Chinese fleet nears the blockade point, and knowing that it is badly outweighted, they will turn around and head for home. And if they do not, then expect a lot of centotaphs to appear all over China in the next year. Because in a naval engagement, China has little to no hope of defeating a joint Japanese-US task force. One side will have heavy bombers, and many different classes of aircraft (including AWACS). The other will have some helicopters, and land based that will be at the edge of their operating limits.
 
Surtr said:
I'm starting to think that you greatly underestimate the capabilities of China.



Yep, I was just going off the hypothetical which seems to be just Japan vs China. If just Japan on their own, Japan loses.
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You seem less than aware of how modern warfare 'works'.
 
China's biggest asset is it's missile technology which is among the best in the world. The DF-21D is a ballistic missile capable of hitting ships at sea and would make it hazardous for any large surface vessels operating in the area.

As for amphibious assault capability.

China Has.

3 x Type 071 Amphibious transport docks displacing 28,000 tons each and capable of carrying 500-800 troops, and 15-20 amphibious armoured vehicles + 2 helicopters
7 x Type 072 class landing ship tank (200 troops; or 5 tanks; or 10 vehicles; or 450t cargo beaching)
11 x Type 072II class landing ship tank (250 troops or 10 tanks or 500t cargo + helicopter)
12+ x Type 072III class landing ship tank (250 troops or 10 tanks or 500t cargo + helicopter)
13 x Type 073 class landing ship medium (180 troops; or 6 tanks, or 8 light amphibious tanks, or 9 armoured personnel carriers (APC), or 12 vehicles, or 250t cargo beaching)
20 x Type 074 class landing ship medium (250 troops; or 2 main battle tanks; or 100 tonnes of cargo beaching)
25 x Type 079 class landing ship medium (5 tanks, or 8 vehicles, or 4 trucks plus 4 towed 85mm field guns, or 250 troops, or 200 tonnes of cargo beaching)
6 x Qiongsha class troop transports (400 troops, or 350 tons cargo)

That add's up to the ability to put ashore 25,540 troops in one wave or 568 tanks, although you could probably expect a mix of both.

Not including the hundreds of landing craft and civilian vessels that could be called upon to aid (China has the worlds largest merchant fleet)

Then we have:

1 x Aircraft Carrier set for commissioning
10+ x Type 052D destroyers currently under construction,
6 x Type 052C's either fitting out or already in service
2 x Type 051C destroyers
2 x Type 052B destroyers
1 x Type 051B destroyer
2 x Type 052 destroyers
4 x Sovremenny destroyers
11 x Type 051 destroyers (some modernised)

16 x Type 054A frigates in service or fitting out
2 x Type 054 frigates
10 x Type 053H3 frigates
4 x Type 053H2G frigates
19 x Type 053 frigates (being phased out)

Then we have the smaller coastal warships:

12+? Type 056 corvettes under construction or launched
83 Type 022 Stealth, guided missile boats
36 Type 037 guided missile boats

plus hundreds of submarine chasers, gunboats, minesweepers etc

And then we have submarines which I'm not going to bother listing as there is over 65 of them.

Basically when it comes down to it, the Chinese have the one of the most potent fleets in the world and the second largest amphibious capability in the world.
 
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Here is an exceedingly relevant article from the Jamestown Foundation: The Jamestown Foundation: PLA Amphibious Capabilities: Structured for Deterrence

"The personnel capacity of these 58 ships remains at about 12,000 personnel, or one division. Not included in this total are another 31 (or fewer) Type 079 (Yulian Class) medium landing ships which mostly operate in coastal waters and the South China Sea, but may not be able to make the transit to Taiwan safely when fully loaded except in the most ideal weather conditions." ---- "Although the number of units equipped and trained to conduct amphibious operations has increased over the past decade, the Navy’s sealift capacity for operations beyond China’s immediate coastal waters has not matched this growth. Army, Navy, and civilian forces probably could mass amphibious lift for a multi-division operation against smaller offshore islands (though they probably would lose the element of surprise as they assembled and loaded troops)."

China has an extremely limited amphibious capability which is aimed at operating within its littoral, not for deep water operations. Their capacity to operate effectively against Taiwan is highly questioned by strategic analysts, let alone against a major military power like Japan and across significant geographic and military obstacles.
 
jbi said:
China's biggest asset is it's missile technology which is among the best in the world. The DF-21D is a ballistic missile capable of hitting ships at sea and would make it hazardous for any large surface vessels operating in the area.

Basically when it comes down to it, the Chinese have the one of the most potent fleets in the world and the second largest amphibious capability in the world.
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Well, welcome back whoever you are the avatar of.

First of all, the DF-21D is all a fantasy. It is at this time still a concept, untested, unfielded, and unverified. And we have threads already about this in here, but real fast put yourself in the shoes of the President, and you have just been told that somebody just launched a Nuclear Ballistic Missile as your fleet. What do you think the response will be?

Glass Parkinglot.

And no, China does not have one of the most potent fleets in the world. They have a single Aircraft Carying Guided Missile Cruiser, but no aircraft to put on it (China claims it will have aircraft by 2015, but is notorious about totally blowing year estimates by 1-2 fold).

It's airforce is largely a joke, mostly locally made versions of Soviet castoffs.

It's tanks are even worse, most of them dating back to the Korean War and WWII.

Their Navy rarely operates outside of it's coastal regions, and has almost no "Blue Water" experience.

Her subs are even worse, considered to be Dock Cuties, they are almost never seen not tied up on shore.

Once again, somebody with no real understanding of military (and especially Amphibious operations) is looking at equipment lists, and predicting a victor based on that.

Now kindly come back when you can assemble some kind of Order of Battle with all of that mess, and figure out a way it can all be used to conduct this operation.
 
Oozlefinch said:
Well, welcome back whoever you are the avatar of.

First of all, the DF-21D is all a fantasy. It is at this time still a concept, untested, unfielded, and unverified. And we have threads already about this in here, but real fast put yourself in the shoes of the President, and you have just been told that somebody just launched a Nuclear Ballistic Missile as your fleet. What do you think the response will be?

Glass Parkinglot.

And no, China does not have one of the most potent fleets in the world. They have a single Aircraft Carying Guided Missile Cruiser, but no aircraft to put on it (China claims it will have aircraft by 2015, but is notorious about totally blowing year estimates by 1-2 fold).

It's airforce is largely a joke, mostly locally made versions of Soviet castoffs.

It's tanks are even worse, most of them dating back to the Korean War and WWII.

Their Navy rarely operates outside of it's coastal regions, and has almost no "Blue Water" experience.

Her subs are even worse, considered to be Dock Cuties, they are almost never seen not tied up on shore.

Once again, somebody with no real understanding of military (and especially Amphibious operations) is looking at equipment lists, and predicting a victor based on that.

Now kindly come back when you can assemble some kind of Order of Battle with all of that mess, and figure out a way it can all be used to conduct this operation.
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Excuse my ignorance, but Dock Cuties?
 
Sherman123 said:
Here is an exceedingly relevant article from the Jamestown Foundation: The Jamestown Foundation: PLA Amphibious Capabilities: Structured for Deterrence

"The personnel capacity of these 58 ships remains at about 12,000 personnel, or one division. Not included in this total are another 31 (or fewer) Type 079 (Yulian Class) medium landing ships which mostly operate in coastal waters and the South China Sea, but may not be able to make the transit to Taiwan safely when fully loaded except in the most ideal weather conditions." ---- "Although the number of units equipped and trained to conduct amphibious operations has increased over the past decade, the Navy’s sealift capacity for operations beyond China’s immediate coastal waters has not matched this growth. Army, Navy, and civilian forces probably could mass amphibious lift for a multi-division operation against smaller offshore islands (though they probably would lose the element of surprise as they assembled and loaded troops)."

China has an extremely limited amphibious capability which is aimed at operating within its littoral, not for deep water operations. Their capacity to operate effectively against Taiwan is highly questioned by strategic analysts, let alone against a major military power like Japan and across significant geographic and military obstacles.
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I wish I could give this double-likes. And is what I have been saying in here for years now.

And if somebody thinks 12,000 is a large force, consider this:

The US, with overwhelming firepower invaded the small island of Iwo Jima with over 70,000 men. And with only 22,000 defenders they still had a month and a half long battle.

The smaller island of Tarawa saw 35,000 Marines landing, against 3,000 Japanese soldiers.

And these were invasions of small islands. Anybody who thinks China can invade Japan with 12,000 soldiers is in serious need of mental help.
 
Firstly thank you for your gracious welcome :D

This is my first time on these boards and I hoped to put my point across and settle a few inaccuracies I have spotted along the way.

You might call me a long time PLA watcher, but by no means do I endorse Chinese actions in the South China sea... I just like to keep an eye on things as they happen over there as a matter of personal curiosity.

I will address your points one by one.

First of all, the DF-21D is all a fantasy. It is at this time still a concept, untested, unfielded, and unverified. And we have threads already about this in here, but real fast put yourself in the shoes of the President, and you have just been told that somebody just launched a Nuclear Ballistic Missile as your fleet. What do you think the response will be
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The DF-21D is very much a reality as admitted by the US admitted by the US government. What we don't know is precise details about range or targeting/accuracy, but we do know that the whole point of the missile is to avoid the requirement to use a nuclear type device in order to score a mission kill, thus avoiding any sort of nuclear escalation.
China Has

And no, China does not have one of the most potent fleets in the world. They have a single Aircraft Carying Guided Missile Cruiser, but no aircraft to put on it (China claims it will have aircraft by 2015, but is notorious about totally blowing year estimates by 1-2 fold).
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By Tonnage they are right up there with the top surface fleets and the current building boom is ensuring an increasing percentage of the tonnage is of modern, high quality vessels.

The latest photographs suggest J-15 production is well under way and the first batch possibly completed. In the last few day's photo's have been posted of dress rehearsals for the "guided missile cruisers" ceremony.

It's airforce is largely a joke, mostly locally made versions of Soviet castoffs.
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J7 and J8 yes... but these are increasingly being supplemented by the more modern J-10, J-11, J-16, JH-7A and you must have seen photographs of the stealth fighter/bomber J-20? or the recently revealed (last few days) J-31?

Their Navy rarely operates outside of it's coastal regions, and has almost no "Blue Water" experience.
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The Chinese have been operating in the gulf of aiden on in co-operation with other navies for a few years now.

Her subs are even worse, considered to be Dock Cuties, they are almost never seen not tied up on shore.
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We don't really know much about Chinese cub's as it is one of the most secretly guarded areas of the PLAN. Historically yes I suspect you are right... but they have been venturing out more and more in recent years. Surely you remember the story of one popping right up in the middle of a US carrier group?

Once again, somebody with no real understanding of military (and especially Amphibious operations) is looking at equipment lists, and predicting a victor based on that.
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Until you get to know me better, I would advise you reserve judgement ;)

Now kindly come back when you can assemble some kind of Order of Battle with all of that mess, and figure out a way it can all be used to conduct this operation.
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Address me with a little more courtesy and I will happily discuss things further.
 
And here is the area I was actually looking for. This is the main Chinese Submarine Base:

Qingdao, Shandong, China - Google Maps

11 subs, all tied up together. And by all appearances they are in long term storage, not going anywhere. A couple of them seem to have some nice rust action going on as well.

Then follow to the East and North, looks like a headquarters building (with a strange design in the grass, possible old SAM site), some cargo and looks like troop transport vessels, as well as a hospital ship. And moving around the circle counter-clockwise some other things appear. Including directly across the water from the sub park is a Type 072 LST and another I can't quite identify (possibly a modified Type 071).
 
Oozlefinch said:
And here is the area I was actually looking for. This is the main Chinese Submarine Base:

Qingdao, Shandong, China - Google Maps

11 subs, all tied up together. And by all appearances they are in long term storage, not going anywhere. A couple of them seem to have some nice rust action going on as well.

Then follow to the East and North, looks like a headquarters building (with a strange design in the grass, possible old SAM site), some cargo and looks like troop transport vessels, as well as a hospital ship. And moving around the circle counter-clockwise some other things appear. Including directly across the water from the sub park is a Type 072 LST and another I can't quite identify (possibly a modified Type 071).
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That's a great shot, Oozle. Did you notice the four tied up together looked very small and ancient? That's because these are ex-soviet Romeo-class subs. And Romeos are a slightly modernized Type XXI German subs from ww2. China has 18 of these. It's hard to believe they still float! On top of it, China has 12 Kilos. Kilos were already outclassed when they were first commissioned, and that was thirty years ago. I imagine these spend most of their time swinging at anchor just like they did for the Russians. And that accounts for almost half of China's sub fleet. That looks pretty grim.
 
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