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Iowa Primary –Republican -The winner will be??

Iowa Primary –Republican -The winner will be??

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    15
JANFU

JANFU

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So when this gets right Knarly between some, make a side bet, loser changes his avatar to something the winner wants. Sentence for losing – 3 months – ends on May 01, Yes yer Honor.
Easier to make it end on 01 May, as some may have problems with numbers and such.

For those willing to put their money down and win. Here ya go



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/
Top 5 from 538.com

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Bush
Only 5 on the list
 
I have subscribed to this thread to see how many were right or wrong.
As far as guessing, I hope Iowans will not choose Trump or Cruz.
 
Lovebug said:
I have subscribed to this thread to see how many were right or wrong.
As far as guessing, I hope Iowans will not choose Trump or Cruz.
Click to expand...

Monday night we will know.
 
I predict:

1) Cruz
2) Rubio
3) Trump
4) Paul
5) Carson
6) Bush
 
ARealConservative said:
I predict:

1) Cruz
2) Rubio
3) Trump
4) Paul
5) Carson
6) Bush
Click to expand...

You're betting on lower turnout?

I stand by my earlier statement - Trump isn't leading a political movement, but a personality cult. His people will come out, though probably many of them will get lost, end up at the wrong primary, have not registered, and then get into fistfights in the parking lot. Trump will win, but underperform (somewhat).

Cruz's debate performance and shame-based mailer, I think, doesn't help him. I'm betting (knowing that I have an admitted bias here) that Trump is the winner of the gap closing between Rubio and Cruz.
 
JANFU said:
So when this gets right Knarly between some, make a side bet, loser changes his avatar to something the winner wants. Sentence for losing – 3 months – ends on May 01, Yes yer Honor.
Easier to make it end on 01 May, as some may have problems with numbers and such.

For those willing to put their money down and win. Here ya go



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/
Top 5 from 538.com

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Bush
Only 5 on the list
Click to expand...


I'm pretty confident that The Boss wouldn't lay any of his money of any of that pack of numbnuts. I haven't heard it reported, but I'm convinced Springsteen will be all for the Bern.
 
Andalublue said:
I'm pretty confident that The Boss wouldn't lay any of his money of any of that pack of numbnuts. I have heard it reported, but I'm convinced Springsteen will be all for the Bern.
Click to expand...

Been listening to his music since 76
Seemed appropriate.
 
Can we have one Cruz diehard willing to take up a bet?
Come on, Cruz has the faith of many supporters.
 
cpwill said:
You're betting on lower turnout?

I stand by my earlier statement - Trump isn't leading a political movement, but a personality cult. His people will come out, though probably many of them will get lost, end up at the wrong primary, have not registered, and then get into fistfights in the parking lot. Trump will win, but underperform (somewhat).

Cruz's debate performance and shame-based mailer, I think, doesn't help him. I'm betting (knowing that I have an admitted bias here) that Trump is the winner of the gap closing between Rubio and Cruz.
Click to expand...

I think Rubio will close the gap by a lot with that debate performance
 
HowardBThiname said:
I haven't kept up --- but 538 is sharp, indeed.

Let the games begin.
Click to expand...

It is really damn close, FiveThirtyEight puts Trump at 45% to Cruz's 40%. +5 when the spread was +7 or +8 a few days back, perhaps skipping the last debate harmed Trump's chances and/or how the media has been talking about this State over the past week. Something has changed just slightly suggesting the spread is closing between the two. Other than perhaps Rubio, no one else in the Republican field seems to statistically matter to Iowa (including Carson, Paul, Bush, Huckabee, etc.)

This should be entertaining to watch today.
 
Iowa looks clear today on the TV. I had heard there was supposed to be snow.
 
JANFU said:
Nothing wrong with some fun.
Note my avatar- I lost a bet.
Click to expand...

I'll bet that Rand Paul finishes in the top 4.

since you left him off the poll, you must disagree?
 
ARealConservative said:
I'll bet that Rand Paul finishes in the top 4.

since you left him off the poll, you must disagree?
Click to expand...

JANFU said:
So when this gets right Knarly between some, make a side bet, loser changes his avatar to something the winner wants. Sentence for losing – 3 months – ends on May 01, Yes yer Honor.
Easier to make it end on 01 May, as some may have problems with numbers and such.

For those willing to put their money down and win. Here ya go



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/
Top 5 from 538.com

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Bush
Only 5 on the list
Click to expand...

Nope- went with the top 5.
But it you want to lay a bet as per the OP, I am sure someone will take you up on it.
 
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