tlmorg02

Analysis: Hezbollah win could shake Obama Mideast policy - CNN.com

Hezbollah is poised to take control of Parliment in Lebanon in the June 7 elections. If this occurs is Obama's mission of peace dead? I should think so, as Israel will never work with such a government.

Mira

I'm very worried about the upcoming elections as well. With Hizbollah and Aoun, it will be the end of Lebanon.

tlmorg02

Most likely you are correct, I would expect Lebanon to be at war with Israel by the end of the year.

Laila

Hezbollah getting into power by elections? That is the price of democracy i suppose.

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tlmorg02

I guess from their perspsective it is no different than the U.S. electing George W. Bush.

gree0232

And why, pray tell, would Israel, the oft touted regional paragon of democracy, not work with a democratically elected government?

A couple of facts:

1. The current Lebanese administration, which just arrested a slew of 'Israeli spies', is not exactly friendly with Israel.

2. Israel has worked with Hezboallah on items like prisoner exchanges and other issues. It may find it distasteful, but Israel will clearly work with Hezboallah when it is in its interests to do so.

This leads to a couple of observations. The first is one that I have often pointed out as the danger in demonizing a human enemy as something less than human and beyond reason.

Hezboallah prior to its inclusion in government was much more dangerous. It went to war freely with Israel to the detriment of Lebanon in general. However, once invited into power it was also invited into responsibility. That was perhaps the greatest reason that Hezboallah didn't come rushing to Hamas's assistance in the latest Gaza blow up. It now had something to lose.

Even better, as polemic as Hezboallah's rhetoric might be, if they win they then have the responsibility to govern and govern well. They have to figure out how to be inclusive enough to bring in all of Lebanon's many factions. They have to figure out how to reign in corruption. At some point, people see beyond superfluous bluster, and voters around the world will eventually want the same thing: results.

If Hezboallah is elected, let it govern. If it starts a war with Israel it will certainly lose .... well, that will make Hezboallah is irresponsible and indifferent to the desires of its own people. Such a label, honestly earned, would do far more damage to Hamas then any number of Israeli bombs.

Conversely, if they choose to gover responsibly, they may discover the benefits of trade and cooperation far outweight the zealotry of ideology ... like the Chinese discovered with communism.

The election of Hezboallah is not a threat to Israel. It is an opportunity for Lebanon to deal with extremism through peaceful means that should ultimately dilute the worst of it.

Going to war over an election result would be incredibly counter-productive and would actually make things less secure for Israel.

Tashah

So far, all of the arrested are Lebanese. I know what awaits them.

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gree0232

Perhaps they should have just assassinated them instead?

I assume there is a point to your statement? Lebanon seems to get along just fine with the Western World and the Arab world, but not with Israel.

It is also, like Israel, a democracy. It also has to blend multiple ethnic and religious entinities in order to function and those entities range form the moderate to the extreme, from secular to religious orthodox, and somehow the society exists as one of the most liberal places in the Middle East despite the presance of that extremist orthodoxy.

I would very much like to see you treat the situation as something less than zero sum. That Israel does many thing right does not mean that Arabs, particulary as a collective entity, automatically do most things wrong. The converse is equally true, that Arabs do some things right, does not mean that Israel is obviousy doing the same thinsg wrong.

That Lebanon and its Western backers have had to deal with Hezboallah, just as Israel does, and have been largely successful. There are some lessons that can be applied to Israel, and some that cannot.

That spies are likely to recieve harsh treatment in Lebanon, is no different that the treatment of spies found round the world. I somehow doubt they will be treated the same way that Mrs. Sabri was by the Iranians, nor indeed do I think Israel will raise the International support necessary to garner that treatment if indeed these people were in the employ of Israel.

The knife of dishonor regarding spying cuts both ways.

Tashah

It would have been a mercy for those arrested. Very shortly, they will beg and pray for the angel of death.

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Tashah

Hezbollah arrests a nest of Israeli spies right before the election?

Imagine that. Exquisite timing.

Allah is provident indeed.

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