Fresh from witnessing Israel's prisoner release agreement with Hezbollah, Hamas appears poised to raise its own demands for Cpl. Shalit's release.

Today, The Jerusalem Post reported:

Hamas on Monday said it was emboldened by Israel's decision to trade Samir Kuntar for Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.

Gaza strongman Mahmoud Zahar, speaking to the independent Al-Quds radio station, said Hamas would take advantage of this decision "to release people Israel accused of having blood on their hands like Samir Kuntar. We have to take advantage of this to release our prisoners."

In my opinion, the swap is a terrible decision given the highly visible perceptions of weakness it creates (something that Hezbollah is already broadcasting widely via Al-Manar TV), the reality that prisoners who engaged in cold-blooded murder are covered, and the precedent it establishes.

A similar evolution toward caving to Hamas' demands may well be underway. First, I continue to believe that Israel should not have consented to a ceasefire with Hamas unless Cpl. Shalit were released in exchange for the ceasefire. The ceasefire offered a strong bargaining chip that Prime Minister Olmert gave away. That development indicated to Hamas that Israel is pliable and, as I noted in another thread on the topic, was likely to encourage Hamas to raise its "asking price" for Cpl. Shalit's release. Second, Israel's failure to respond to recent repeated violations of the ceasefire with Hamas and its prisoner swap agreement with Hezbollah have now strengthened such perceptions of weakness among Hamas' leadership.

I remain worried that Prime Minister Olmert will ultimately largely capitulate to Hamas' demands leading Israel to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those with blood on their hands. The fact that Prime Minister Olmert's government entered into and approved the agreement with the Hezbollah terrorist organization in spite of Mossad and Shin Bet opposition is particularly troubling. At a minimum, it hints that political expediency and not national security considerations drove the decisionmaking. It raises anew the prospect that Prime Minister Olmert's decisionmaking is perhaps increasingly being influenced by his battle for political survival. If so, the Kadima primary could not come soon enough.

Originally Posted by donsutherland1 I remain worried that Prime Minister Olmert will ultimately largely capitulate to Hamas' demands leading Israel to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those with blood on their hands. The fact that Prime Minister Olmert's government entered into and approved the agreement with the Hezbollah terrorist organization in spite of Mossad and Shin Bet opposition is particularly troubling. At a minimum, it hints that political expediency and not national security considerations drove the decisionmaking. It raises anew the prospect that Prime Minister Olmert's decisionmaking is perhaps increasingly being influenced by his battle for political survival. If so, the Kadima primary could not come soon enough.

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Originally Posted by Tashah Olmert is proving to be a terrible poker player. I wish he would leave the barganing table and the sooner the better. I personally would prefer taking Gaza apart brick by brick until Hamas released Cpl. Shalit.

Another day, and added support for Tashah's point that Prime Minister Olmert is "proving to be a terrible poker player."

Today, Haaretz reported, "Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would like to speed up the negotiations with Hamas over kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit, sources in the Prime Minister's Bureau said Monday night."

While such an aim should be Israel's objective, communication of such an aim is something experienced negotiators would avoid. Dissemination of such information conveys a sense of urgency, if not desperation. In turn, such perceptions lead the other side to calculate that it has a greater chance to exploit such urgency or desperation so as to obtain a higher price. Armed with that calculation, the other side is more likely to make tougher demands and more likely to prove intransigent in the face of rejection of its demands.

When it comes to negotiating positions, psychology is critical. Impressions that a party is dealing from a weak hand can prove hazardous to its ability to achieve its key objectives. Henry Kissinger once observed that "since most political calculations occur in the minds of men, the psychological element is often decisive."

Separately, perhaps recognizing that Israeli restraint in the face of repeated Palestinian violations of the ceasefire reached with Hamas, a ceasefire that Hamas extracted without having to release Cpl. Shalit, is being perceived as suggesting Israeli weakness, Prime Minister Olmert attempted to rebut such perceptions. Haaretz reported, "Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Tuesday warned that though Israel is exhibiting patience in the face of violence from the Gaza Strip, the Palestinians should not interpret Israel's restraint as weakness." Unfortunately for the Prime Minister, actions not words provide the greatest credibility in the Middle East. That the Prime Minister is reduced to rhetoric in the face of repeated Palestinian violations may well be strengthening perceptions of Israeli weakness.

Overall, to borrow from Tashah's analogy, these most recent events likely strengthen the argument that perhaps Prime Minister Olmert should no longer be at the proverbial poker table.

<snip> Hamas says talks suspended on Israeli soldier's release 2 hours ago GAZA CITY (AFP) — Hamas said on Friday it had suspended negotiations on the release of a captured Israeli soldier because the Jewish state was not respecting the terms of a truce with the Islamist movement. "Hamas has suspended indirect negotiations with the enemy over (Corporal Gilad) Shalit because of the non-respect by the enemy of the terms of the truce, notably the opening of crossing points and authorising the entry of all merchandise" into the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, said Osama al-Muzeini, the Islamists' pointman on Shalit.</snip>

<snip> Negotiations would resume at a date that would be set "once the enemy demonstrates it is serious and respects the agreements that have been reached." Muzeini said Hamas demanded that 1,000 prisoners eventually be released, with 450 who are serving long sentences being freed in a first stage as part of an eventual exchange deal. To date Israel has approved the names of only 70 of the 450, he said. "I believe that if the enemy finds itself faced with a tough negotiator, it will end up making concessions," Muzeini added. The negotiations have stalled primarily over Israel balking at releasing people with "blood on their hands."</snip>

I completely agree. The ceasefire benefits only Hamas. It provides the terrorist organization with relief from pressure and allows it opportunity it to rebuild. At the same time, its unbalanced nature, e.g., Hamas received the relief it wanted without having to free Cpl. Shalit, creates perceptions of Israeli weakness. Continuing Israeli restraint in the face of repeated Palestinian violations only amplifies those perceptions of Israeli weakness. Not surprisingly, an emboldened Hamas has now suspended talks with Cpl. Shalit, whom the terrorist organization likely has no intent to release except if Israeli gives in to truly exorbitant demands.

In short, given its terms, the ceasefire never was in Israel's interest. Israel should correct its error and terminate it based on Hamas' latest actions.