One of the most prominent elements of the Machiavellian game that will be played until the Turks go to the voting booth will be the threat of terror and chaos.
Fear of chaos was the top factor that enabled the AKP to recover in the Nov. 1 elections the parliamentary majority it had lost in June. It's the same threat that prompted Sunni conservative voters to restore the AKP to power Nov. 1. An important pertinent signal came from Islamist daily Yeni Akit, an ardent Erdogan supporter, in a Jan. 28 article titled “Either presidency or chaos.”
Leaving aside the Islamic State (IS) terror that has not yet become a permanent feature, the only element that keeps the chaos and terror threat alive is the war that was launched July 24 against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
Reaching an agreement with the Kurdish movement could mean loss of nationalist votes that the government wants in a referendum or elections. That could also mean more votes for the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). But in an early election, Erdogan’s goal is to push both the opposition Nationalist Action Party and the HDP to below the 10% election threshold. If that is secured, then all the seats they would have won will be accrued to the next-strongest party — the AKP. That of course would guarantee enough seats for the AKP to get a constitutional amendment.
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Erdogan's Kurdish gamble - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East