Are there 70,000 Syrian 'moderates' ready to back UK?

In advocating a case for extending UK air strikes into Syria, Prime Minister David Cameron outlined a strategy of targeting so-called Islamic State (IS), paralleled with a diplomatic track in which the main opposition groupings sat down with the Syrian regime and worked out a transition of power.
As part of making the case for a robust diplomatic process, the prime minister noted that as many as 70,000 fighters who did not belong to extremist groups were still committed to fighting President Bashar al-Assad.

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[h=2]Ignoring the Kurds[/h]Regardless of the lack of clarity, the 70,000 figure does not include the Kurds.
Their Popular Protection Units (YPG) form part of a larger umbrella movement known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is engaged in battle with IS across a 900km (560-mile) frontline in areas where Kurds are largely the majority ethnic population.
The SDF generally operates in a tense ceasefire with the Assad regime and has even been accused of being in open alliance with it, and as a result the British government does not include the YPG or the SDF - which may have as many as 40-50,000 troops - in its estimate. Link.

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Personally, I hope whatever transition to power recognises that "Syria" may not emerge with the same landmass it had before and that nobody tries to enforce an unpopular central govt in the same way we saw with Iraq. There are too many groups with differing and conflicting desires to try and hold under an umbrella govt in Damascus.

70,000, if the number even is correct, should not be determining the future of 23 million Syrians which 70% of supported president Assad before the civil war started. Russia could easily find 70,000 Americans that would like to overthrow our government.

Montecresto said:

70,000, if the number even is correct, should not be determining the future of 23 million Syrians which 70% of supported president Assad before the civil war started.

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Where do you bring that figure from?

Apocalypse said:

Where do you bring that figure from?

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The Anglo-American press reports on an internal NATO study (dated June 2013), which takes stock of Syrian public opinion. The study shows that 70% of Syrians support President Bashar al-Assad, 20% adopt a neutral position and 10% support the “rebels.”

The Missing Question: Who Supports Assad? | Sophie Stewart-Bloch

Poll: 70% Of Syrians Support Assad, Says NATO | From the Trenches World Report

NATO reveals 70% of Syrians support Bashar al-Assad

Poll says Assad popularity high | NEW POWER

Most Syrians back President Assad – but you'd never know from western media | Jonathan Steele | Comment is free | The Guardian
Most Syrians back President Assad, but you'd never know from western media

US presidents don't get that kind of support and nobody tries to regime change them. Does Bibi have that kind of support?

Western propaganda doesn't like to point to this.

Montecresto said:

The Anglo-American press reports on an internal NATO study (dated June 2013), which takes stock of Syrian public opinion. The study shows that 70% of Syrians support President Bashar al-Assad, 20% adopt a neutral position and 10% support the “rebels.”

The Missing Question: Who Supports Assad?Â*|Â*Sophie Stewart-Bloch

Poll: 70% Of Syrians Support Assad, Says NATO | From the Trenches World Report

NATO reveals 70% of Syrians support Bashar al-Assad

Poll says Assad popularity high | NEW POWER

Most Syrians back President Assad – but you'd never know from western media | Jonathan Steele | Comment is free | The Guardian
Most Syrians back President Assad, but you'd never know from western media

US presidents don't get that kind of support and nobody tries to regime change them. Does Bibi have that kind of support?

Western propaganda doesn't like to point to this.

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Several points;
Your first article, an opinion piece, opens with the assumption made by an expert that the figures are wrong. The Guardian article, also an opinion piece, also mentions 55% of Syrians, not 70%. Most importantly - Syrians are used to say they support Assad whenever asked because they fear being kidnapped tortured and executed by the Assad regime. In the elections ran by the Assad regime during the years he used to get 98% of the votes, not because he was necessarily faking it but because it was well known that good things don't happen if you don't vote for Assad. He's a dictator, a tyrant, you cannot rely on any poll made in a state where people fear expressing their opinion of the leader to the level of a known and recognized possibility of getting kidnapped and "disappearing" for good.

Apocalypse said:

Several points;
Your first article, an opinion piece, opens with the assumption made by an expert that the figures are wrong. The Guardian article, also an opinion piece, also mentions 55% of Syrians, not 70%. Most importantly - Syrians are used to say they support Assad whenever asked because they fear being kidnapped tortured and executed by the Assad regime. In the elections ran by the Assad regime during the years he used to get 98% of the votes, not because he was necessarily faking it but because it was well known that good things don't happen if you don't vote for Assad. He's a dictator, a tyrant, you cannot rely on any poll made in a state where people fear expressing their opinion of the leader to the level of a known and recognized possibility of getting kidnapped and "disappearing" for good.

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Well I knew you'd reject the NATO poll in deference to your own superior authority. I was somewhat perplexed that you asked. Your opinion on the NATO poll however is just that.

Montecresto said:

Well I knew you'd reject the NATO poll in deference to your own superior authority. I was somewhat perplexed that you asked. Your opinion on the NATO poll however is just that.

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What is my "own superior authority"? In the post you've replied to there is not a single sentence where I'm making use of any such authority.
I've made use of logic, common sense, the relations between an oppressive tyrant and his population and the very links you yourself have provided.

Apocalypse said:

What is my "own superior authority"? In the post you've replied to there is not a single sentence where I'm making use of any such authority.
I've made use of logic, common sense, the relations between an oppressive tyrant and his population and the very links you yourself have provided.

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You have not refuted that NATO conducted a survey in Syria which found that president Assad enjoyed a 70% approval rating. All you've done is weigh in with your opinion on the ramifications of such a poll. In Assad's Syria, there was relative peace and calm, 23 million people going about their business, lives, work, shopping, on the beaches, at the sidewalk cafés. Now, 4 million people have fled the fighting between their president and the forces supported by the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and others which are trying to topple him.

Montecresto said:

You have not refuted that NATO conducted a survey in Syria which found that president Assad enjoyed a 70% approval rating.

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I was not looking to refute it. Where did you see in my post a rejection that such poll was conducted and that these were its results? Nonsense.

All you've done is weigh in with your opinion on the ramifications of such a poll.

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Nope. Assad is a tyrant and the population is scared of saying anything about him to anyone as has been evident for ages now. Also, your links were saying the same things so you should focus on not contradicting yourself instead of on not having your claims contradicted.

In Assad's Syria, there was relative peace and calm, 23 million people going about their business, lives, work, shopping, on the beaches, at the sidewalk cafés. Now, 4 million people have fled the fighting between their president and the forces supported by the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and others which are trying to topple him.

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Gee I wonder why the Syrian population have decided that they've had enough and that they're going to risk their lives to get rid of the murderous tyrannical maniac.
Yeah, before anyone had provided any support to any organization. After all judging by your portrayal of the Syrian reality prior to the civil war, it was a heaven on Earth.
If there was zero external involvement in Syria, meaning no Russia and Iran as well, Assad would be long gone by now and the situation would have been at worst like the one in Libya.

Apocalypse said:

I was not looking to refute it. Where did you see in my post a rejection that such poll was conducted and that these were its results? Nonsense.



Nope. Assad is a tyrant and the population is scared of saying anything about him to anyone as has been evident for ages now. Also, your links were saying the same things so you should focus on not contradicting yourself instead of on not having your claims contradicted.



Gee I wonder why the Syrian population have decided that they've had enough and that they're going to risk their lives to get rid of the murderous tyrannical maniac.
Yeah, before anyone had provided any support to any organization. After all judging by your portrayal of the Syrian reality prior to the civil war, it was a heaven on Earth.
If there was zero external involvement in Syria, meaning no Russia and Iran as well, Assad would be long gone by now and the situation would have been at worst like the one in Libya.

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To the bolded. Very well then. This began with you questioning my numbers and I've supported them. Enjoy your evening.