Thread: Israel Still Unsure Iran Even Want Nuclear Weapons

Israel: Iran still mulling whether to build nuclear bomb - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

Iran has not yet decided whether to make a nuclear bomb, according to the intelligence assessment Israeli officials will present later this week to Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Dempsey will be arriving on his first visit here since being appointed chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in September. He will meet with various senior defense officials, including Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Benny Gantz.

The Israeli view is that while Iran continues to improve its nuclear capabilities, it has not yet decided whether to translate these capabilities into a nuclear weapon - or, more specifically, a nuclear warhead mounted atop a missile. Nor is it clear when Iran might make such a decision.

So in spite of all their calls for war, Israel still aren't convinced that Iran has even made the decision to build a nuclear weapon.

Iran do not need to build a nuclear weapon as they have achieved a conventional deterrent to potential Israeli aggression by upgrading the S-300 and other missiles and fitting them with GPS.

this means that they can be aimed with much more accuracy and their range is easily enough to strike at Israel's nuclear and biological stockpiles, including the Dimona nuclear power station, a situation which would probably cause the Israelis to think twice before launching another Operation Cast Lead or Lebanon war.

I believe this is the real reason for all the Israeli/US sabre rattling because nobody is allowed to threaten Israel's primacy in the region.

Whether Iran wants to eventually build a nuke is pretty irrelevant. Eventually action will be taken to take out their conventional missile sites and return Israel to being the major military power in the Middle East.

Originally Posted by Baltim

...

Iran do not need to build a nuclear weapon as they have achieved a conventional deterrent to potential Israeli aggression by upgrading the S-300 and other missiles and fitting them with GPS.

What "Israeli aggression"?
Israel has no designs on Iran Except to prevent Iranian aggression, and even then only aggression by Nuclear Bomb, as Iran is already waging Proxy War against Israel using Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran and Israel were allies before the Mullahs took over.

You really have turned Reality on it's head.
It's Israeli Nukes that have prevented war on IT by the neighborhood who wants it gone.
Not so of the other states in the region.

It's Flexing-Shia-Power Iranian Nukes that are destabilizing the Region and scaring it's Gulf State Sunni neighbors. The latter now announcing programs of their own, in defense.. From IRAN.. not 40+ year old Israeli Nukes.

What matters is Iraq precedence. Attrack first, install democracy, then bring in U.S. contractors to rebuild the country.

Originally Posted by RDS

What matters is Iraq precedence. Attrack first, install democracy, then bring in U.S. contractors to rebuild the country.

It matters, but in the Opposite sense of your suggestion.
No one in their right mind would think the USA wants another Iraq and we would Never try it.
THAT'S what you can be sure of, not that Iran is under threat from such.
That's one reason Iran is proceeding boldly with Nukes, they Know, from 'precedence', we wouldn't do another Iraq with a 10' pole.

This string is upside down world.

Well this, coupled with the fact that US SecDef Leon Panetta said, and I quote, "Are they [Iran] trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No," only goes to show that the US and its allies were blatantly lying about Iran's nuclear program (in the context that Iran was trying to attain nukes).

Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible

"Are they [Iran] trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No,"

Continuing the conversation...

Panetta stated that Iran is currently engaged in seeking nuclear "capability" (an ill-defined and fuzzy term).

He also plainly stated that any Iranian nuclear warhead nuts-and-bolts phase would be a red line for the United States.

Originally Posted by Baltim

Iran do not need to build a nuclear weapon as they have achieved a conventional deterrent to potential Israeli aggression by upgrading the S-300 and other missiles and fitting them with GPS.

this means that they can be aimed with much more accuracy and their range is easily enough to strike at Israel's nuclear and biological stockpiles, including the Dimona nuclear power station, a situation which would probably cause the Israelis to think twice before launching another Operation Cast Lead or Lebanon war.

I believe this is the real reason for all the Israeli/US sabre rattling because nobody is allowed to threaten Israel's primacy in the region.

Whether Iran wants to eventually build a nuke is pretty irrelevant. Eventually action will be taken to take out their conventional missile sites and return Israel to being the major military power in the Middle East.

Not to split hairs too much, but the S-300 is a surface-to-air system, NOT a surface-to-surface missile. The S-300 is no threat to Israeli nuclear facilities or any other surface target. S-300 (missile) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Iran's SSM (surface-to-surface missile) is the Shahab-2 and Shahab-3 system. Shahab-3 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Even these can be countered. The Israeli Arrow-2 Block 4 is quite possibly the most advanced ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) in the world. Arrow (missile) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Iran's surface-to-surface threat is by no means assured, and is most likely to fail utterly.

Tashah, et al,

The importance here is that nothing new has been discovered since the publication of the 2011 NIE. Thus it would not alter the DNI summation that: “We do not know…if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”
SOURCE: http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf

Originally Posted by Tashah

Continuing the conversation...

Panetta stated that Iran is currently engaged in seeking nuclear "capability" (an ill-defined and fuzzy term).

He also plainly stated that any Iranian nuclear warhead nuts-and-bolts phase would be a red line for the United States.

(COMMENT)

The IRGC-QF and the Iranian MIOS will continue to collect on CNWDI and purchase functional technology as it may become available. This is a normal function of positive intelligence activities; not unique to Iran. This does not mean that Iran has an active and coordinated Nuclear Weapons Program. It just means that they scavenge what has been proliferated by Nuclear Capable nations. And scavenging activities are a symptom of a non-existent or troubled program grasping at any opportunity to cobble together something. But don't mistake this for a Nuclear Weapons Program; it is not.

First a true (No Crap) Story.

In 1964 the U.S. Army decided to see just how difficult it was (to build a bomb). They hired two professors that had Ph.Ds in physics, but no experience with nuclear weapons or access to nuclear secrets. The two were given the task of designing an atomic bomb using only information available to the general public. It took them roughly two years, but in the end they designed an implosion style weapon that could have been made in a local machine shop which could have produced an explosion similar to the Hiroshima bomb.

SOURCE: The UnMuseum - How to Build an Atomic Bomb
http://www.unmuseum.org/buildabomb.htm

Any country or organization that has a decent crop of Physicists, and Iran fits this bill, with time and money, can design, fashion the components and construct a device of some magnitude, in a couple of years (probably less now). And remember how long these Middle Eastern countries have been considering this.

The true problem is the acquisition of the fuel and prototype testing. Our guys had a serious problem with this. Uranium 235 is very rare. And the Enrichment Process (separating the it from other isotopes) is the key factor. Build the device, you can do in your garage. Fueling the device requires a major factory. Or, you start with Plutonium and process it. But that is, as well, difficult to come by and even more difficult to work with. Just a whiff of it will take you down. Basically this is the "Breeder Reactor" issue.

If the Iranians wanted a device, then they probably have that capability already. They just need fuel. With the amount of time they have had to work on the problem, they could have a half-dozen or so devices. That portion of the project is easy. You don't need to have a program specifically for that.

After that, they need a delivery system. The BM-25 might just be big enough to carry the load, with a modified warhead.

Then - you need to either enrich the fuel yourself -- of scavenge for it. The most important aspect is the fuel and not the scientist.

With the exception of the fueling issue, the rest of it can be cobbled together in relative ease. We've known that you could build a bomb in a garage since before my Vietnam Days. There were rumors of the Soviet "Suitcase Bomb" for decades. When I was a young CI Agent, this was the biggest boogieman. Over the last decade, I've spent about seven years in the Middle East and Persian Gulf Region. Today's boogieman is the terrorist with fissionable materials. With fissionable materials, you do not need a Nuclear Weapons Program. Just a couple of reasonably good scientist and a machine shop.

It is fortunate for us, that the manufacture of fissionable materials is so very difficult. And that is what the UN Inspection Regiment is really looking for. And it takes a lot of effort to make it. But if the scavengers find weapons grade plutonium on the open market, then --- it could be easily hidden. That is what "Proliferation" is really all about.

If the Scientist were critical kills, then it had something to do with the manufacture or acquisition of fissionable materials. But if the Scientist were killed as subterfuge, then it is something else.

Just My Thought ---
Most Respectfully,
R

Originally Posted by RoccoR

With the exception of the fueling issue, the rest of it can be cobbled together in relative ease. We've known that you could build a bomb in a garage since before my Vietnam Days. There were rumors of the Soviet "Suitcase Bomb" for decades. When I was a young CI Agent, this was the biggest boogieman. Over the last decade, I've spent about seven years in the Middle East and Persian Gulf Region. Today's boogieman is the terrorist with fissionable materials. With fissionable materials, you do not need a Nuclear Weapons Program. Just a couple of reasonably good scientist and a machine shop.

It is fortunate for us, that the manufacture of fissionable materials is so very difficult. And that is what the UN Inspection Regiment is really looking for. And it takes a lot of effort to make it. But if the scavengers find weapons grade plutonium on the open market, then --- it could be easily hidden. That is what "Proliferation" is really all about.

It's that suitcase bomb that really concerns me.

Iran is jumping through a lot of hoops and dealing with a lot of backlash over their nuclear program. It seems like a lot of hassle for simple civilian energy program. They've been offered several options that would've settled the whole matter over the years and still they pursue the path of most resistance. They could've shipped raw uranium to Russia, let them process it, and have the ready nuclear fuel shipped back. No problem.

It's the fuel (and the centrifuges used to process it) that's the cause of all the fuss, and according to RoccoR the only truly difficult ingredient to a suitcase bomb. It's suspicious to me to dodge inspections and easy alternatives when their purpose is allegedly peaceful. If they can make their own fuel without inspections, then they can hand it off to any lunatic they want and it can't easily be tracked. This is why their obstinate approach is more worrisome than anything. It speaks of ulterior motives and that cannot be good.

Originally Posted by EagleAye

Not to split hairs too much, but the S-300 is a surface-to-air system, NOT a surface-to-surface missile. The S-300 is no threat to Israeli nuclear facilities or any other surface target. S-300 (missile) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Iran's SSM (surface-to-surface missile) is the Shahab-2 and Shahab-3 system. Shahab-3 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Even these can be countered. The Israeli Arrow-2 Block 4 is quite possibly the most advanced ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) in the world. Arrow (missile) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaI dis

Iran's surface-to-surface threat is by no means assured, and is most likely to fail utterly.

Thoughtful post, but I disagree somewhat.
I see Israel as very soon vulnerable to even a conventional missile attack from the above-mentioned weapons or improved ones.
Most likely a dual one from Iran and Syria. Should 'new Egypt' pan-out to be hostile, or even more likely, Hezbollah gain effective control in Lebanon, this is ominous.
So Israel, despite it current conventional superiority could be Crushed by the mere improvement of hostile neighbors current tech.
They won't have to dual the IAF to annihilate it.

Ergo, Israel remains all-time the poster child for a country needing Nukes. Perhaps the only one.
I always marvel it the idiotic "If Israel has em, then xxxx should have them to.."
No other country is in Israel's geo-strategic situation.

So Iran really doesn't need Nukes of course, save for utter destruction, and has turned down many offers of free enrichment from various entities including the EU 6+ years ago. It has refused any solution that would inhibit them from diverting materials to a weapons program.
So intent I feel, is clear.

For it's so-called national Security Iran might want to build (with 1/50th the effort/money) some refineries, since they have to import half their Gasoline and routinely have shortages/rationing.
Yes, drowning-in-oil Iran doesn't have enough gasoline.
I think this lopsided effort says alot about national Intent as well.