Last edited by ecofarm; 12-19-11 at 01:25 AM.
The flaw in the logic is to think that just because they are experts, they are right. Anyones' opinion, even an experts, can be wrong. Experts are considered experts because they know the facts. However, just because they know their facts, that doesn't mean that their opinions are always correct.
I's say that both Bill Clinton and George Bush are both experts on being president, having held the office for 8 years each. That doesn't mean that all of their opinions or all of their decisions were correct.
I'm sorry, but you dont get to decide which history is relevant, and which is not. Stuxnet was discovered in 2010. That's years AFTER 9/11, which is still a very relevant factor wrt our history with Iran. If 9/11 is relevant (and it is), the so is stuxnetForget it, Sangha. I was asking about activities within a certain time frame. You failed yet again to answer correctly. The stuxnet virus was outside the time frame. But don't worry, Grip correctly comprehended my request, did not evade, demonstrated a good work ethic and talent for research, and gave an excellent answer.
some claim that US has the right to attack any country in the middle east to protect itself but Turkey has no right to defend itself against bloody kurd organizations in its own territory or near its boundary!
and turks kill lots of kurds! but US wil never kill any civillian in case of a war because american army is angel,whereas turkish army is devil!
if they are that democratic and humanist they must react against every war!
how am I supposed to believe in such personalities......
Last edited by Medusa; 12-19-11 at 08:11 AM.
I also knew a brave Green Beret who served in Vietnam and said they were all scared out of their minds. There's a small jellyfish in the beaches of Australia that's sting is so painful they have to knock the people out in the ER. You'd have to be completely bananas not to fear that. I'm not saying you're not an exceptionally tough or less intimidated individual, they do exist. But like Colonel Flagg on the comedy MASH it makes you look more daffy than brave.
And I've already stated several times it's not the terrorist activities alone of Iran and others that particularly worry me it's the financial impact on an already fragile US economy that a conflict involving oil supplies will have. Market speculators have been jumping from market to market since the credit bubble popped after they lost that easy stream of paper wealth. Major oil shares and reserves would be sat on till the prices peaked before they'd sell causing havoc in everyday life from coast to coast. It would make the rapid climb of gold values look like a Tupperware sale.
It is not even clear that Iran is capable of slowing the rate of oil exports from the Gulf for more than a very short period of time, probably days. With the massive amount of US naval power in the Gulf, any attempt to attack Gulf shipping would be futile and probably result in severe punishment. The threat to block the Straits of Hormuz is likewise an empty bluff. The Iranian navy would be quickly destroyed if it tried to hold positions there and if it sank ships and laid mines, these would be quickly cleared. The world has been preparing for these events for years and Iran would only hurt itself by doing either of these things. Iran's threat to stop exporting oil is also ludicrous. China is the principal buyer of Iranian oil and 80% of China's oil imports come from Iran. If Iran stopped exporting oil, it would mostly harm China, one of the few states still friendly to Iran, and if it stopped exporting only oil not sold to China, it would amount only to a trickle of oil the world would not even notice.
"A belief is not merely an idea the mind possesses; it is an idea that possesses the mind."
Robert Oxton Bolt
Last edited by grip; 12-19-11 at 02:12 PM.
If Iran cutoff oil supplies it would probably be only to US allies. That would mean Spain, Greece, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. But the slack could likely be picked by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Libya. Iraq and Libya could likely use new found revenue. In fact, if new channels like this are established, Iran may lose US allied customers permanently. Cutting oil supplies is a risky game for Iran and one they should not start playing.
Found some interesting articles here about the impact of Iran oil sanctions/Iran stopping oil flow:
Michael Levi: Energy, Security, and Climate » Incoherent Thinking About An Iranian Oil EmbargoIran faces prospect of EU crude embargo - FT.comThis prospect has elicited a flood of market impact analyses. The ones I’ve seen are proprietary, so I won’t post or quote them here, but they appear to have one important thing in common. Parts of each analysis look country-by-coutnry to see who is currently most dependent on Iranian oil. They then suggest that those countries are at greatest risk in the event a cutoff. Other parts of each analysis estimate the rise in world prices that sanctions would provoke as a way of explaining how bad the consequences would be.
This is, quite literally, incoherent. To argue that each country will be affected differently depending on its level of imports from Iran, one must conceive of the world oil market as a place where geography matters deeply. This is inconsistent with thinking about a single world price for oil.China is in a payment dispute with Iran over Chinese oil purchases. So China is halving it's purchase of Iran oil for January. Iran is playing with the big boys now and starting to see who's boss.If current clients do not offset the loss of the European market, Tehran could try to look for new buyers – or dust off old ones, such as Pakistan. But the impact of the financial sanctions imposed by Western countries is likely to prevent importers paying for the oil.
Thus, Tehran is unlikely to make up for the loss of the European market, particularly in the short-term, forcing it to either cut production or start storing the crude.
UPDATE 2-China halves Jan Iran oil imports in payment dispute | News by Country | ReutersBEIJING, Dec 19 (Reuters) - China's top refiner Sinopec Corp will in January buy less than half the crude it typically imports from Iran, trade sources said on Monday, as the two haggle over terms against a backdrop of rising international pressure on Tehran.
Iran's largest crude buyer has cut its January purchases by about 285,000 barrels per day (bpd), sources said. That is over half of the close to 550,000 bpd that China has been buying on annual contract this year.