• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Iran 'ready for war' over UK and U.S. attack plan

Status
Not open for further replies.
OPEC is far less effective as a cartel now than before due to political animosity between members countries and increased production by countries outside of OPEC.

First post yey xD

Good one. Yes I have read theories stating the above. Seems there is a wedge now between Iran and Venezuela on one side and the Saudis and the Gulf States on the other.

The wild cards in world oil supplies in the years to come which no one has yet to estimate are the Russians with all their reserves,
Canada's north oil deposits becoming accessible due to wide spread ice melts, and large deposits off the coast of Gaza and in between Cyprus and Israel.

As well most of Iraq's oil still remains in the ground but just below the surface and so relatively easy and cheaper to access.
 
Right. Under Sadaam Hussein Iraq was cutting edge in not just technology but social engineering.

What next, you want to tell me how wondeful Libya was under Ghaddafi and how progressive Iran is?

:tink:

What next? Which is the next muslim country the US planning to install democracy? Why not try North Korea instead of a muslim country?
 
What next? Which is the next muslim country the US planning to install democracy? Why not try North Korea instead of a muslim country?
proximity to China is my first guess

The predominant religion in the area is really just incidental. The geopolitical significance of the area exists independently of the area's religions and cultures
 
proximity to China is my first guess

The predominant religion in the area is really just incidental. The geopolitical significance of the area exists independently of the area's religions and cultures

Not just proximity. Russia and China won't sit idle if N. Korea is attacked.
 
Consumption during the 1950s was just a trickle. Furthermore the oil cartel influences prices too now.

But regardless of consumption the percentage of oil we where using from Iran was far greater then it is now. OPEC may use the situation to its advantage and so will speculators but lets not pretend that this has anything to do with supply. Futhermore i doubt that they will be able to do so credibly given that all they are threatening to do is not sell oil to people they are not selling a lot of oil to anyway.
 
Last edited:
Not so much those figures. Oil prices will hit the roof, airlines will be in the red, many businesses will go bust etc. Demand and supply mehanism kicks in.

Hardly likely oil exports came to a complete halt in Iran during the 1950s due to the Anglo-Iranian oil dispute and life continued pretty much as it did before. And the amount of oil that both the U.S and UK get from Iran is so negligible today that it would matter even less.

But Iran could not stop selling oil all together given that it would suicide. Iran is a very undeveloped country and has nothing else to export of any worth. And even if it did other producers could simply raise production. Not to mention that the fact that if we where concerned about Iran's oil exports we wouldn't have placed an embargo on them.

But regardless of consumption the percentage of oil we where using from Iran was far greater then it is now. OPEC may use the situation to its advantage and so will speculators but lets not pretend that this has anything to do with supply. Futhermore i doubt that they will be able to do so credibly given that all they are threatening to do is not sell oil to people they are not selling a lot of oil to anyway.

To prove my point, just forget about Iran using oil as a weapon:

American Airlines parent seeks Ch. 11 protection

Besides higher labor costs, American also struggled with rising jet fuel costs. Jet fuel cost an average of $3 per gallon so far this year — a record according to government data that goes back to 1990. Jet fuel is more expensive now than the average of $2.96 per gallon in 2008, when oil rose above $147 per barrel for the first time. It’s risen 56.4 percent in the past five years. The average price of jet fuel was $1.92 per gallon in 2006.

American Airlines parent seeks Ch. 11 protection - BostonHerald.com
 
Always remember that the West forced the Shah's autocracy on Iran when the democratic government tried to nationalise the oil companies. Opposition was forced to go into the mosques, since - at least at that time - American didn't contemplate abolishing religion. That is why there is an Islamic democracy in Iran rather than a - much more liberal - secular one. Those who do evil always suppose that it is irrelevant later: those who suffer it remember very well.
 
Always remember that the West forced the Shah's autocracy on Iran when the democratic government tried to nationalise the oil companies. Opposition was forced to go into the mosques, since - at least at that time - American didn't contemplate abolishing religion. That is why there is an Islamic democracy in Iran rather than a - much more liberal - secular one. Those who do evil always suppose that it is irrelevant later: those who suffer it remember very well.

It sounds so grand when you leave out the details. By the time the West, mostly the US with some assistance from the UK, began assisting the Shah's supporters, Mosaddegh, who had recently been democratically elected to the parliament and later chosen as PM under the Shah's democratic reforms of his father's laws, had dismissed the parliament when they refused to pass laws giving him unconstitutional powers and was ruling by decree with the support of mobs in the streets. The previous PM, Haj Ali Razmara, had been assassinated by a radical Islamist group, Fadā'iyān-e Islam, which was also responsible for the assassinations of several other secular leaders and intellectuals, and which eventually survived a crackdown by the state in 1955 to adopt Khomeini as their spiritual leader and played important roles in the 1979 Islamic revolution and in the regime that followed.

By the time the US got involved, Mosaddegh had already effectively destroyed Iran's constitutional democracy. The streets of Tehran were in chaos, mobs supporting Mosaddegh, Islamists, communists and mobs supporting the Shah raged against each other and threatened to kill those who opposed them. Britain was involved to protect its oil interests in Iran, but the US, which had no oil interests there, became involved at the urging of the British out of concern about determined Soviet moves to take over Iran, especially the northern provinces which were threatening to secede.

While it is flashier to claim the US overthrew the Mosaddegh government, it is more accurate to say that the US acted as a lobbyist for Iranian constitutional democracy employing exactly the same methods then as European government funded NGO's use today to try to influence politics in Israel. The US with British assistance opened their offices to the Shah's supporters, helped them organize, advised them on tactics and strategy and lobbied Iranian political and military leaders, including the Shah who was inclined to abandon his country rather than to shoulder his constitutional responsibilities, to support the constitutional democracy that had by then all but disappeared. The principal tactic employed was to tell the truth. Supporters of the Shah persuaded the communists and other secular dissidents that if the Islamists came to power, they would be persecuted by them, and told the Islamists that if the communists came to power, Islamists would be persecuted by them. In 1979, the huge crowds of demonstrators contained equal numbers of Islamists and communists and other left leaning secularists, but within a few years after the Islamists taking power, virtually all the communists had been executed, imprisoned or chased into exile along with large numbers of other secular dissidents. Without a doubt, if the US had not intervened to preserve Iran's constitutional democracy Iran would have been divided between Khomeini's murderous regime and the Soviet empire in 1953 or shortly thereafter.
 
As long as such a conflict keeps Turkey out of the way, we shall remain natural.
but i'm afraid Iran will target the NATO and American bases within Turkey, therefore, that would eventually drag my country into this regional mess.
One good news though, Turkey-NATO against Iran would end faster than a family guy episode.
 
What are we discussing if not Iran using oil as a weapon?

Fuel prices are already high without Iran using oil as a weapon. If Iran uses oil as a weapon then it would be castrophic.
 
Damn... 7928 characters, have to spit into two posts.

Part 1:

I recently had the need to search existing threads on this topic. Others had polluted a thread on climate change, claiming we were supporting the Shah's oil, rather than what actually happened in Tran in the 50's. What people read from blogs, and pundit sources, often miss the underlying truth. They Shah was for westernizing Iran in slow steps. He had violent opposition to that like we see today. The discourse in this other thread was claiming the Shah created a coup against Mosaddegh. Much of the truth however is revealed in post 33. To add (from my sometimes wrong memory) is that the Shah chose to dismiss Mosaddegh under article 46 of the constitution. He didn't leave, and had the support to cause a coup against the Shah. The Shah then left to Europe where now the US and UK governments helped him retain his place in Iran. It appears that today's revisionist history has all this being over oil, which it never was. It was about helping the legitimate government of an established ally.

Most the population doesn't realize that Iran was a great western ally until Carter allowed the Shah to be disposed in the late 70's. Here is one profound examples of changing to western ways:

Miss Iran competitions continues until 1978 and after Islamic Revolution

» Miss Iran History

For women in an Islamic culture, to be allowed such things... It took very long time before Iran started allowing such things.

The Shah was a friend to the west. Though I seldom use Wiki without verifying, I have seen such facts before the internet existed:


The White Revolution consisted of 19 elements that were introduced over a period of 15 years, with the first 6 introduced in 1962 and put to a national referendum on January 26, 1963.

Land Reforms Program and Abolishing "Feudalism": The government bought the land from the feudal land lords at what was considered to be a fair price and sold it to the peasants at 30% below the market value, with the loan being payable over 25 years at very low interest rates. This made it possible for 1.5 million peasant families, who had once been little more than slaves, to own the lands that they had been cultivating all their lives. Given that the average size of a peasant family was 5, the land reforms program brought freedom to approximately 9 million people, or 40% of Iran's population.

Nationalization of Forests and Pasturelands: Many measures were introduced, not only to protect the national resources and stop the destruction of forests and pasturelands, but also to further develop and cultivate them. More than 9 million trees were planted in 26 regions, creating 70,000 acres (280 km²) of "green belts" around cities and on the borders of the major highways.

Privatization of the Government Owned Enterprises, selling shares in manufacturing plants and factories to the public and the old feudal lords, thus creating a whole new class of factory owners who could now help to industrialize the country.

Profit Sharing for industrial workers in private sector enterprises, giving the factory workers and employees 20% share of the net profits of the places where they worked and securing bonuses based on higher productivity or reductions in costs.

Extending the Right to Vote to Women, who previously did not enjoy suffrage. This measure was criticized by some of the clergy.

Formation of the Literacy Corps, so that those who had a high school diploma and were required to serve their country as soldiers could do so by fighting illiteracy in the villages. In 1963 approximately 2/3 of the population was illiterate, with 1/3 found mainly in the capital city of Tehran.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Revolution
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Part 2:




The Shah, like Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr, Muammar Gaddafi, Hafez al-Assad, and others have been are now being disposed of by the west. The claim being they are too harsh on the protesters, who are criminals of their society. However, they have kept terrorism in check. I would say they understand the criminal elements of their society in ways we do not.

When the Shah and al-Bakr were deposed in the late 70, look at what followed. Look at Libya now. Iraq is a mess, but at least we had other reasons that were justified there. In hindsight, I think we should have left Iraq alone. But at least we had good reason following 911.

Liberal policies like to force, in an authoritarian manner, change, Not only on US citizens, but across the world. Such policies will harm any natural progress towards a united world.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Moderator's Warning:
Closed.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom