The econ forum has taken a turn for the worst, which is why my activity here has thinned out completely. That and the level of new idiot posters is at an all-time high.
Just staying busy and on my toes. I am glad to see you have come around! ;-) All kidding aside, i think earnings will continue to meet or beat expectations throughout 2013 and into 2014 which would likely increase the demand for labor. I am estimating between 2.5 and 3.1 million new jobs for 2013, which could push unemployment below 7% by year end. Assuming of course political brinkmanship is resolved! I do agree a pull-back is in the works, but wouldn't expect anything dramatic until right before Q1 earnings are reported.
How's it going man!? What do you think about the rally?
No idea. He pops in once every blue moon. Not near as often as he use to which is a shame. He is a great poster.
I agree with you regarding the lack of decorum for his liberal counterpart! Sometimes I laugh because he is witty but man.....he also can be brutal and mean.
Yeah...have been really missing you and OldReliable on the forum for some reasoned alternative perspective. Glad you're back on
Where have you been man! We need more sane Conservative posters in the economics forum.
Fixing the purchase date to the health of the labor market is (IMO) the best decision the Fed has made as of late. Previous rounds were really just gifts for portfolio managers. However, i still believe the federal government needs to run with this opportunity by funding infrastructure and public works projects in the tune of 3% of GDP. Monetary policy alone cannot solve this problem.
Previous QE attempts have not been capable of sustaining an increase of inflation expectations for reasons outlined prior (it is why you see peaks and troughs across the breakeven). An agency asset buying program in which its duration is tied to the unemployment rate is divergent from these previous rounds.
With a perpetual monetary easing program, the Fed can maintain stringent control of interest rates, and therefore have a meaningful impact on inflation expectations
I'm not-low all the time
Miel de Châtaignier