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Murder Rate Is Up

Jack Hays

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Murders are up. How will this play politically?

Murders Rose At Their Fastest Pace In A Quarter Century Last Year

By Jeff Asher

It’s official: Murder rose across the U.S. last year at the fastest pace since 1990, according to data released by the FBI on Monday. There were an estimated 15,696 murders[SUP]1[/SUP] in 2015, 1,532 more than in 2014 and the most recorded in a calendar year since 2008.
The new data, part of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report program, is based on voluntary reports from nearly 18,000 police departments and other law-enforcement agencies nationwide. In addition to crime rates for certain major crime types, the annual “Crime in the U.S.” report provides data on arrests, clearance rates (the share of crimes that are solved) and police staffing. The report showed that police departments in cities shrank slightly in 2015 despite efforts by departments to rebuild their ranks after enduring large losses during the recession.

The increase in murder was remarkably widespread. Of the 82 cities with populations over 250,000 in 2014 or 2015,[SUP]2[/SUP] 52 experienced a rise in murder last year; murder fell in only 26. (Four cities stayed the same.) Murder rose by double digits in 29 big cities last year while dropping by double digits in just four of them. Three cities (Indianapolis; Louisville, Kentucky, and Omaha, Nebraska) had more murders in 2015 than in any of the last 40 years. Preliminary evidence suggests the murder rate is continuing to rise in 2016, at least in the largest cities.
Murder rose in cities run by both political parties. Murder rose in 63 percent of the big cities with a Democratic mayor (33 of 52) and 85 percent of those led by a Republican (17 of 20); the two sets of cities saw murders rise at roughly the same pace.[SUP]3[/SUP]
The increase pushed the murder rate — the number of killings per 100,000 people — up to 4.9, from 4.4 in 2014. The increase comes on the heels of nearly two decades of continuous decline in the national murder rate; 2014’s murder rate was the lowest recorded national murder rate since the FBI began keeping the statistic in 1960. Indeed, 2015’s rate in the U.S. is roughly the same as it was in 2010 and less than half what it was when the murder rate peaked nationally in 1980.




 
Murders are up. How will this play politically?

Ordinarily it'd be Obama's fault, but given the level of honesty in this election, people will probably start saying it's Clinton's fault.

Meanwhile Trump will blame immigrants and muslims.
 
I wonder if the Heroin/Opioid epidemic has any role in this.
 
I wonder if the Heroin/Opioid epidemic has any role in this.

Good question. This from the article:

It isn’t clear what caused the rise of murder in 2015. Some cities, most notably Baltimore, St. Louis and Chicago, experienced large jumps in murder that began after police-related deaths. That has led some experts, including FBI Director James Comey, to suggest the rise in murder could be linked to police in some cities becoming less proactive out of fear of a viral video sparking protests. The rise in murder in most cities, however, defies easy explanation, and it is likely that there is no one cause for why murder rose nationally in 2015.
 
Murders are up. How will this play politically?

Murders Rose At Their Fastest Pace In A Quarter Century Last Year

By Jeff Asher

It’s official: Murder rose across the U.S. last year at the fastest pace since 1990, according to data released by the FBI on Monday. There were an estimated 15,696 murders[SUP]1[/SUP] in 2015, 1,532 more than in 2014 and the most recorded in a calendar year since 2008.
The new data, part of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report program, is based on voluntary reports from nearly 18,000 police departments and other law-enforcement agencies nationwide. In addition to crime rates for certain major crime types, the annual “Crime in the U.S.” report provides data on arrests, clearance rates (the share of crimes that are solved) and police staffing. The report showed that police departments in cities shrank slightly in 2015 despite efforts by departments to rebuild their ranks after enduring large losses during the recession.

The increase in murder was remarkably widespread. Of the 82 cities with populations over 250,000 in 2014 or 2015,[SUP]2[/SUP] 52 experienced a rise in murder last year; murder fell in only 26. (Four cities stayed the same.) Murder rose by double digits in 29 big cities last year while dropping by double digits in just four of them. Three cities (Indianapolis; Louisville, Kentucky, and Omaha, Nebraska) had more murders in 2015 than in any of the last 40 years. Preliminary evidence suggests the murder rate is continuing to rise in 2016, at least in the largest cities.
Murder rose in cities run by both political parties. Murder rose in 63 percent of the big cities with a Democratic mayor (33 of 52) and 85 percent of those led by a Republican (17 of 20); the two sets of cities saw murders rise at roughly the same pace.[SUP]3[/SUP]
The increase pushed the murder rate — the number of killings per 100,000 people — up to 4.9, from 4.4 in 2014. The increase comes on the heels of nearly two decades of continuous decline in the national murder rate; 2014’s murder rate was the lowest recorded national murder rate since the FBI began keeping the statistic in 1960. Indeed, 2015’s rate in the U.S. is roughly the same as it was in 2010 and less than half what it was when the murder rate peaked nationally in 1980.


I guess all you saw was "murder rates are up!!!" and the last couple sentences really didn't register. As with nearly all rates concerning humanity, there WILL be ups and downs, some more than others. What's important is the long-term trend. One year's data is really nothing more than a statistical outlier.

But of course, anything that can be used for your personal political agenda is fair game, no matter how misleading.
 
I guess all you saw was "murder rates are up!!!" and the last couple sentences really didn't register. As with nearly all rates concerning humanity, there WILL be ups and downs, some more than others. What's important is the long-term trend. One year's data is really nothing more than a statistical outlier.

But of course, anything that can be used for your personal political agenda is fair game, no matter how misleading.

What in the world are you talking about?
 
Yes, you do know precisely what I'm talking about. That's the problem with being intelligent - it's doggone hard to claim ignorance and get away with it.

Then I must not be as smart as you think I am because I have no idea what you're going on about.
 
There were 4 states that were "Constitutional Carry" in both 2014 and 2015 plus Arkansas which was kind of CC for that period.

Of those states VT had no increase in homicides, AZ had a decrease of 2 homicides, Wyoming had no change and Alaska had an increase of 18. Arkansas had an increase of 6 homicides.

Several states implemented more restrictive gun laws. Among those states were CT and MD which both implemented or strengthened "assault weapon" bans. CT saw an increase of 28 homicides and MD saw an increase of 154 homicides. California added a bunch of new gun laws and saw an increase of 161 homicides. Colorado implemented background checks for private sales and saw an increase of 26 homicides. New York made sweeping changes with the SAFE Act and reduced their homicide count by 7.

We've been over this time and again, more gun laws DO NOT reduce violent crime. Enforcement of the laws on the books DOES stop violent crime.

Of note is Missouri, home of Ferguson. Michael Brown was killed by police in August of 2014 and the Ferguson PD was the center of a DoJ investigation. There were 98 more homicides for MO in 2015 than there were in 2014. Could that be due to less enforcement? Also note that the death of Freddie Gray became an issue early in 2015 and in that year MD saw homicides increase by 154. Again, could it be pressure on police to back off on their investigations? It may well be something to look at.
 
Yes, you do know precisely what I'm talking about. That's the problem with being intelligent - it's doggone hard to claim ignorance and get away with it.

Is this what you're referring to? It's not in dispute and it's a fair point, but I think FiveThirtyEight got it right when they emphasized the increase as a political issue.

The increase comes on the heels of nearly two decades of continuous decline in the national murder rate; 2014’s murder rate was the lowest recorded national murder rate since the FBI began keeping the statistic in 1960. Indeed, 2015’s rate in the U.S. is roughly the same as it was in 2010 and less than half what it was when the murder rate peaked nationally in 1980.


 
Is this what you're referring to? It's not in dispute and it's a fair point, but I think FiveThirtyEight got it right when they emphasized the increase as a political issue.

The increase comes on the heels of nearly two decades of continuous decline in the national murder rate; 2014’s murder rate was the lowest recorded national murder rate since the FBI began keeping the statistic in 1960. Indeed, 2015’s rate in the U.S. is roughly the same as it was in 2010 and less than half what it was when the murder rate peaked nationally in 1980.



1,532 is a rather dramatic increase. Given that, I'd say it is a political issue.
 
Ordinarily it'd be Obama's fault, but given the level of honesty in this election, people will probably start saying it's Clinton's fault.

Meanwhile Trump will blame immigrants and muslims.

Clinton is as much to blame as anyone....she's a snake. And Trump would be correct, except the gang bangers are the biggest problem.
 
There were 4 states that were "Constitutional Carry" in both 2014 and 2015 plus Arkansas which was kind of CC for that period.

Of those states VT had no increase in homicides, AZ had a decrease of 2 homicides, Wyoming had no change and Alaska had an increase of 18. Arkansas had an increase of 6 homicides.

Several states implemented more restrictive gun laws. Among those states were CT and MD which both implemented or strengthened "assault weapon" bans. CT saw an increase of 28 homicides and MD saw an increase of 154 homicides. California added a bunch of new gun laws and saw an increase of 161 homicides. Colorado implemented background checks for private sales and saw an increase of 26 homicides. New York made sweeping changes with the SAFE Act and reduced their homicide count by 7.

We've been over this time and again, more gun laws DO NOT reduce violent crime. Enforcement of the laws on the books DOES stop violent crime.

Of note is Missouri, home of Ferguson. Michael Brown was killed by police in August of 2014 and the Ferguson PD was the center of a DoJ investigation. There were 98 more homicides for MO in 2015 than there were in 2014. Could that be due to less enforcement? Also note that the death of Freddie Gray became an issue early in 2015 and in that year MD saw homicides increase by 154. Again, could it be pressure on police to back off on their investigations? It may well be something to look at.

All that common sense is wasted on liberals.....
 
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