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The Left Trying to Hide the Rise of Violent Crime

Jack Hays

Jack Hays

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The left is trying hard to deny a "Ferguson effect" but the evidence keeps accumulating. It may be that 2016 will be a "law and order" election.

Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase. The see-no-evil ...Blog: Progressives desperately trying to hide 'Ferguson effect' rise in crimeAmerican Thinker‎ - 4 hours ago

The rise in crime attributable to the anti-police #BlackLivesMatter movement sponsored by George Soros money could be the sleeper issue of the 2016 election. Dubbed the “Ferguson effect” over the outrage ginned up by the death of a criminal who was falsely said to have had his hands up when he was shot by a Ferguson, Missouri police officer who, in fact, was facing a life-threatening situation as the thug attempted to grab is firearm, the rise in crime has been substantial and widespread.
This has progressives very worried, and they are pulling out all the stops, harnessing the organs of elite opinion in an effort to deny that the Ferguson effect is genuine. Fortunately, Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute is America’s great truth-teller on crime, a fearless and brilliant scholar of the issue. She writes in the Wall Street Journal:
Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase. The see-no-evil campaign eagerly embraced a report last month by the Brennan Center for Justice called “Crime in 2015: A Preliminary Analysis.” Many progressives and their media allies hailed the report as a refutation of what I and others have dubbed the “Ferguson effect”— cops backing off from proactive policing, demoralized by the ugly vitriol directed at them since a police shooting in Ferguson, Mo., last year. Americans are being asked to disbelieve both the Ferguson effect and its result: violent crime flourishing in the ensuing vacuum.
In fact, the Brennan Center’s report confirms the Ferguson effect, while also showing how clueless the media are about crime and policing. (snip)
The resulting projected increase for homicides in 2015 in those 25 cities is 11%. (By point of comparison, the FiveThirtyEight data blog looked at the 60 largest cities and found a 16% increase in homicides by September 2015.) An 11% one-year increase in any crime category is massive; an equivalent decrease in homicides would be greeted with high-fives by politicians and police chiefs. Yet the media have tried to repackage that 11% homicide increase as trivial. . . . .

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I was told carrying guns prevented a rise a crime.
 
Jack Hays said:
The left is trying hard to deny a "Ferguson effect" but the evidence keeps accumulating. It may be that 2016 will be a "law and order" election.

Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase. The see-no-evil ...Blog: Progressives desperately trying to hide 'Ferguson effect' rise in crimeAmerican Thinker‎ - 4 hours ago

The rise in crime attributable to the anti-police #BlackLivesMatter movement sponsored by George Soros money could be the sleeper issue of the 2016 election. Dubbed the “Ferguson effect” over the outrage ginned up by the death of a criminal who was falsely said to have had his hands up when he was shot by a Ferguson, Missouri police officer who, in fact, was facing a life-threatening situation as the thug attempted to grab is firearm, the rise in crime has been substantial and widespread.
This has progressives very worried, and they are pulling out all the stops, harnessing the organs of elite opinion in an effort to deny that the Ferguson effect is genuine. Fortunately, Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute is America’s great truth-teller on crime, a fearless and brilliant scholar of the issue. She writes in the Wall Street Journal:
Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase. The see-no-evil campaign eagerly embraced a report last month by the Brennan Center for Justice called “Crime in 2015: A Preliminary Analysis.” Many progressives and their media allies hailed the report as a refutation of what I and others have dubbed the “Ferguson effect”— cops backing off from proactive policing, demoralized by the ugly vitriol directed at them since a police shooting in Ferguson, Mo., last year. Americans are being asked to disbelieve both the Ferguson effect and its result: violent crime flourishing in the ensuing vacuum.
In fact, the Brennan Center’s report confirms the Ferguson effect, while also showing how clueless the media are about crime and policing. (snip)
The resulting projected increase for homicides in 2015 in those 25 cities is 11%. (By point of comparison, the FiveThirtyEight data blog looked at the 60 largest cities and found a 16% increase in homicides by September 2015.) An 11% one-year increase in any crime category is massive; an equivalent decrease in homicides would be greeted with high-fives by politicians and police chiefs. Yet the media have tried to repackage that 11% homicide increase as trivial. . . . .

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This post reads like a paid advertisement.


I'd say both sides try to hide negative news. It's govt's nature.
 
Manc Skipper said:
I was told carrying guns prevented a rise a crime.
Click to expand...

exactly. For a few years we have been exposed to the propaganda from the right that more guns in the hands of more people means less crime. So this OP and the information in shows that entire line of dog excrement was a total and complete fabrication borne from ideology and belief and not supported by the facts.
 
Manc Skipper said:
I was told carrying guns prevented a rise a crime.
Click to expand...

You were lied to. Locking up "career" criminals is much more effective. Carrying a gun (coupled with actually using it to eliminate a criminal) may help but that is a very rare event, much more often the criminal is simply stopped in that one attempted crime and continues their life of crime, slightly better educated in careful victim selection.
 
haymarket said:
exactly. For a few years we have been exposed to the propaganda from the right that more guns in the hands of more people means less crime. So this OP and the information in shows that entire line of dog excrement was a total and complete fabrication borne from ideology and belief and not supported by the facts.
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Off topic.
 
I don't care.

Murder per capita is down to half what it was 20 years ago.

Stranger on stranger violent crime...way down. I really don't care if the street thugs and crackheads in Ferguson, Chicago, east St Louis, etc. off each other at increasing rates.

More guns, three strikes your out is making my life safer.
 
American Thinker is a right-wing propaganda site. I won't be going there.
 
It's interesting. I've never owned a gun and never been a victim of a major crime (someone jacked my car stereo in the 80's). Several of my gun nutter friends have been less lucky. Is soaring gun ownership causing this spike in crime?

It's a troubling thought and might be informative in selecting an appropriate presidential candidate.
 
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David_N said:
This is a lie based on cherrypicking and ignoring trends.
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Actually, the lying and cherry-picking is the work of those trying to wish away the facts.

". . . The resulting projected increase for homicides in 2015 in those 25 cities is 11%. (By point of comparison, the FiveThirtyEight data blog looked at the 60 largest cities and found a 16% increase in homicides by September 2015.) An 11% one-year increase in any crime category is massive; an equivalent decrease in homicides would be greeted with high-fives by politicians and police chiefs. Yet the media have tried to repackage that 11% homicide increase as trivial. . . ."


​
 
Jack Hays said:
Actually, the lying and cherry-picking is the work of those trying to wish away the facts.

". . . The resulting projected increase for homicides in 2015 in those 25 cities is 11%. (By point of comparison, the FiveThirtyEight data blog looked at the 60 largest cities and found a 16% increase in homicides by September 2015.) An 11% one-year increase in any crime category is massive; an equivalent decrease in homicides would be greeted with high-fives by politicians and police chiefs. Yet the media have tried to repackage that 11% homicide increase as trivial. . . ."


​
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You can play around with percentages to make it look like a "massive" increase is occurring.
This is blatantly dishonest considering homicide rates are very low, and you're using a percentage increase, which is blatantly dishonest.
 
Jack Hays said:
The left is trying hard to deny a "Ferguson effect" but the evidence keeps accumulating. It may be that 2016 will be a "law and order" election.

Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase. The see-no-evil ...Blog: Progressives desperately trying to hide 'Ferguson effect' rise in crimeAmerican Thinker‎ - 4 hours ago

The rise in crime attributable to the anti-police #BlackLivesMatter movement sponsored by George Soros money could be the sleeper issue of the 2016 election. Dubbed the “Ferguson effect” over the outrage ginned up by the death of a criminal who was falsely said to have had his hands up when he was shot by a Ferguson, Missouri police officer who, in fact, was facing a life-threatening situation as the thug attempted to grab is firearm, the rise in crime has been substantial and widespread.
This has progressives very worried, and they are pulling out all the stops, harnessing the organs of elite opinion in an effort to deny that the Ferguson effect is genuine. Fortunately, Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute is America’s great truth-teller on crime, a fearless and brilliant scholar of the issue. She writes in the Wall Street Journal:
Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase. The see-no-evil campaign eagerly embraced a report last month by the Brennan Center for Justice called “Crime in 2015: A Preliminary Analysis.” Many progressives and their media allies hailed the report as a refutation of what I and others have dubbed the “Ferguson effect”— cops backing off from proactive policing, demoralized by the ugly vitriol directed at them since a police shooting in Ferguson, Mo., last year. Americans are being asked to disbelieve both the Ferguson effect and its result: violent crime flourishing in the ensuing vacuum.
In fact, the Brennan Center’s report confirms the Ferguson effect, while also showing how clueless the media are about crime and policing. (snip)
The resulting projected increase for homicides in 2015 in those 25 cities is 11%. (By point of comparison, the FiveThirtyEight data blog looked at the 60 largest cities and found a 16% increase in homicides by September 2015.) An 11% one-year increase in any crime category is massive; an equivalent decrease in homicides would be greeted with high-fives by politicians and police chiefs. Yet the media have tried to repackage that 11% homicide increase as trivial. . . . .

​
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Yes...the left hitched onto the "black lives matter" bandwagon hoping to hold onto the African American votes they may be losing in their push to legalize millions of illegal immigrants.
 
Soho gator said:
It's interesting. I've never owned a gun and never been a victim of a major crime (someone jacked my car stereo in the 80's). Several of my gun nutter friends have been less lucky. Is soaring gun ownership causing this spike in crime?

It's a troubling thought and might be informative in selecting an appropriate presidential candidate.
Click to expand...

Go to the source, the FBI. Check their stats and not the propaganda of the left or right. Violent crime, gun related and otherwise, is has dropped dramatically in 20 years...even more so since 2010.
 
David_N said:
You can play around with percentages to make it look like a "massive" increase is occurring.
This is blatantly dishonest considering homicide rates are very low, and you're using a percentage increase, which is blatantly dishonest.
Click to expand...

Complete nonsense. Unworthy of reply. Try introducing some data rather than just demagoguing and waving your arms.
 
Iamjesus said:
Go to the source, the FBI. Check their stats and not the propaganda of the left or right. Violent crime, gun related and otherwise, is has dropped dramatically in 20 years...even more so since 2010.
Click to expand...

Until this year.
 
Jack Hays said:
Off topic.
Click to expand...

No, it's not. Y'all on the right - and you are with the right on this topic - have preached for years that more people carrying guns equals less crime (despite all the worldwide evidence to the contrary). There was a huge uptick of gun-buying when Obama first took office, with the second time he won, and with every big shooting or attack since then...

...so according to pro-gun-rights dogma, crime SHOULD have significantly decreased.

But it didn't. Instead, there's a rise. Is that rise caused by more people having guns? Nobody on either side knows for sure. Personally, I'd say it has a lot more to do the lingering effects of the Great Recession combined with the plethora of examples of police brutality that have been on the news. Violence begets violence, always has, and always will...and this is exacerbated when the violence is committed by those we're supposed to trust to keep us safe.

Now don't go claiming that I'm somehow anti-police - I've always had great respect and admiration for them (I had to call 911 last night because of my neighbor). But the actions of the few bad apples who are committing the brutality are reflected on the rest of the police community - just like any crime committed by someone in our military is reflected on the rest of the military community.

Poverty and the actions of the few bad actors among the police are IMO the main drivers of the rise in violence...but at the same time, this puts to bed the Right's claims that more guns equals less violence.
 
haymarket said:
exactly. For a few years we have been exposed to the propaganda from the right that more guns in the hands of more people means less crime. So this OP and the information in shows that entire line of dog excrement was a total and complete fabrication borne from ideology and belief and not supported by the facts.
Click to expand...

Perhaps some day, you will gain the ability to work out the difference between the average gun owner and the gang bangers. It is violent gang crime that is increasing due to the Fergeson effect.
 
Jack Hays said:
Until this year.
Click to expand...

Lying.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...aw-no-war-on-cops-and-no-national-crime-wave/
As with so many debates about crime in America, it helps to examine the actual numbers.

It is true that in many cities, murders in 2015 are on pace to surpass 2014 totals. In a new analysis of murder and crime rates in the country’s 30 largest cities, the Brennan Center for Justice projected that the average murder rate will be 11 percent higher this year than last. New York City, which had 333 murders in 2014, is predicted to have 357 murders by the end of 2015.

While that is troubling, it is not evidence that America has fallen back into a lawless pit of chaos and death. A more meaningful way of looking at data is comparing it with unmistakable longer-term trends: The rate of violent crime, including murder, has been going down for a quarter-century, and is at its lowest in decades. On average, it is half of what it was in 1990, and in some places even lower.

In New York City, for example, the number of murders reached 2,245 in 1990. Even in 2010, the city logged 536 murders, or 50 percent more than this year’s projected total. This long-term decline has been well reported, but increasingly, it is getting overlooked in the rush to identify a new crime wave.

As the Brennan Center analysis shows, overall violent crime — which includes not just murder, but robbery, larceny, assault and burglary — is projected to be 1.5 percent lower in 2015 than 2014. For understandable reasons, murders get the most attention, but they accounted for only 1.2 percent of all violent crime in 2014.

It’s true that some cities like Baltimore, St. Louis and Detroit saw a significant and troubling rise in homicides this year. But those are isolated cases. In other cities, homicide were up, but only after long and historic drops.

Here in Nashville, for example, we saw 67 murders in 2015, up from 41 last year. (The figures are for all of Davidson County). At first blush, that seems like an alarming increase. And it has caused much consternation among politicians, the media and community leaders, with lots of calls for “action,” whatever that means.

But last year was a historic low for the city and represented the floor of an overall 10-year decline. This year’s total of 67 murders only takes the city back where it was in 2009, and is right at about the 10-year average of 66. For comparison, between 1971 and 1989, annual murders in Davidson County usually numbered in the 80 and 90s, and never dipped below 67 — and that was with 20 to 25 percent less population than the county has today.

And these are just raw numbers. The ten-year drop since there were more than 90 murders in 2005 has taken place in one of the fastest-growing counties in the country. Raw crime figures can drop only so low, particularly in a city that’s growing by the day. And once they are at historic lows, even small increases look large when expressed as percentages.

Despite the likelihood that violent crime overall will be down slightly this year — continuing a general two-decade decline — a Gallup poll taken in October showed that 70 percent of Americans think crime is worse this year than last year. Just 18 percent thought crime has gone down. Crime in the United States has been dropping dramatically since about 1994. Yet with one exception, in every year since 1994 there has been at least a 20 percent gap between those two figures. The year 2012, for example, saw the lowest violent crime rate in the United States in 40 years. Yet by about a 50-point margin, Americans still told Gallup at the time they thought crime was getting worse.
Click to expand...
 
Jack Hays said:
The left is trying hard to deny a "Ferguson effect" but the evidence keeps accumulating. It may be that 2016 will be a "law and order" election.

Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase. The see-no-evil ...Blog: Progressives desperately trying to hide 'Ferguson effect' rise in crimeAmerican Thinker‎ - 4 hours ago

The rise in crime attributable to the anti-police #BlackLivesMatter movement sponsored by George Soros money could be the sleeper issue of the 2016 election. Dubbed the “Ferguson effect” over the outrage ginned up by the death of a criminal who was falsely said to have had his hands up when he was shot by a Ferguson, Missouri police officer who, in fact, was facing a life-threatening situation as the thug attempted to grab is firearm, the rise in crime has been substantial and widespread.
This has progressives very worried, and they are pulling out all the stops, harnessing the organs of elite opinion in an effort to deny that the Ferguson effect is genuine. Fortunately, Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute is America’s great truth-teller on crime, a fearless and brilliant scholar of the issue. She writes in the Wall Street Journal:
Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase. The see-no-evil campaign eagerly embraced a report last month by the Brennan Center for Justice called “Crime in 2015: A Preliminary Analysis.” Many progressives and their media allies hailed the report as a refutation of what I and others have dubbed the “Ferguson effect”— cops backing off from proactive policing, demoralized by the ugly vitriol directed at them since a police shooting in Ferguson, Mo., last year. Americans are being asked to disbelieve both the Ferguson effect and its result: violent crime flourishing in the ensuing vacuum.
In fact, the Brennan Center’s report confirms the Ferguson effect, while also showing how clueless the media are about crime and policing. (snip)
The resulting projected increase for homicides in 2015 in those 25 cities is 11%. (By point of comparison, the FiveThirtyEight data blog looked at the 60 largest cities and found a 16% increase in homicides by September 2015.) An 11% one-year increase in any crime category is massive; an equivalent decrease in homicides would be greeted with high-fives by politicians and police chiefs. Yet the media have tried to repackage that 11% homicide increase as trivial. . . . .

​
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Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

While I agree that appearances can sometimes be deceiving, it sure looks like that! Why would people like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton immediately go to places like Ferguson, Baltimore, and other cities to deliberately increase anger instead of talking calmly to the crowds to settle things down and let the courts decide. They, more than anyone else, promote racist attitudes! Why don't I read that they've gone to Chicago where blacks are killing each other every weekend? Those people are just as dead, but it's the white policemen who are to blame for what happens to blacks who don't follow the law? :bs:
 
polgara said:
Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

While I agree that appearances can sometimes be deceiving, it sure looks like that! Why would people like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton immediately go to places like Ferguson, Baltimore, and other cities to deliberately increase anger instead of talking calmly to the crowds to settle things down and let the courts decide. They, more than anyone else, promote racist attitudes! Why don't I read that they've gone to Chicago where blacks are killing each other every weekend? Those people are just as dead, but it's the white policemen who are to blame for what happens to blacks who don't follow the law? :bs:
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This isn't comparable. White people kill other white people all the time, I guess that means we should ignore police brutality that occurs towards white people. HYPOCRITES. :roll:
 
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