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International Politics A new Georgian war brewing?; A couple days ago Georgia severed diplomatic ties with Russia, and today they withdrew from a 1994 U.N. brokered ...

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Old 08-30-08, 01:05 PM   #1 (permalink)
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A new Georgian war brewing?

A couple days ago Georgia severed diplomatic ties with Russia, and today they withdrew from a 1994 U.N. brokered ceasefire with Abkhazia (which also allows for Russian peacekeepers). Are they only snubbing the concessions made to the Russians made by that agreement, or are they in fact also wishing to open the door to a western-backed proxy war with the Russians in the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

Given that they have little military capability now that the Russians have crushed it, and given that the U.S. and others have promised to rebuild it, is Georgia on the path to a David and Goliath face-off?

Last edited by metreon : 08-30-08 at 01:12 PM.
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Old 08-30-08, 03:11 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: A new Georgian war brewing?

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Originally Posted by metreon View Post
A couple days ago Georgia severed diplomatic ties with Russia, and today they withdrew from a 1994 U.N. brokered ceasefire with Abkhazia (which also allows for Russian peacekeepers). Are they only snubbing the concessions made to the Russians made by that agreement, or are they in fact also wishing to open the door to a western-backed proxy war with the Russians in the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

Given that they have little military capability now that the Russians have crushed it, and given that the U.S. and others have promised to rebuild it, is Georgia on the path to a David and Goliath face-off?






No.

Georgia pulled out of the UN brokered cease-fire to expel Russian peacekeepers from the country. And if Georgia wishes to use its militaryto crush a rebellion, then so be it! The didn't perform any type of ethnic cleansing.


If any wars come out of this it will be on Russias part, Georgia was the first one to step up to the table to talk about peace, not Russia, and Russias not even following it!
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Old 08-30-08, 04:25 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: A new Georgian war brewing?

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No.

Georgia pulled out of the UN brokered cease-fire to expel Russian peacekeepers from the country. And if Georgia wishes to use its militaryto crush a rebellion, then so be it! The didn't perform any type of ethnic cleansing.


If any wars come out of this it will be on Russias part, Georgia was the first one to step up to the table to talk about peace, not Russia, and Russias not even following it!
You seem to forget that it was Georgia that fired first, breaking the 1994 cease fire, and Russia crushed them for it.

There is a double standard here. When Arab nations attempted to invade Israel, they were crushed for it, and Israel kept some land. When Georgia breaks the cease fire and goes to war, Russia crushes them, and the same people who support Israel condemn Russia.

As far as Israel goes, the way I see it is they should have kept the spoils of war, ALL the land they took. As the victor, they certainly had a right to it. On the other hand, Russia now has a right to dictate to Georgia the terms of any peace. Georgia can either accept those terms, as the defeated nation it is, or go jump in a lake.

Bottom line, there is no way to make war antiseptic. As Sherman said, war is hell, and as Andrew Jackson said, to the victors belong the spoils. War is nasty business, and terms are always dictated by the winners of wars, not the losers.
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Last edited by danarhea : 08-30-08 at 04:27 PM.
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Old 08-30-08, 06:13 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: A new Georgian war brewing?

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Originally Posted by metreon View Post
Given that they have little military capability now that the Russians have crushed it, and given that the U.S. and others have promised to rebuild it, is Georgia on the path to a David and Goliath face-off?
No. The United States, NATO's other countries, and Russia all have an enormous interest in avoiding a direct confrontation. Georgia's withdrawal from the 1994 ceasefire is provocative, but it won't lead to a larger confrontation between the U.S./Europe and Russia. Were Georgia to take things a step farther and attempt to apply military force, that effort would prove a catastrophic failure. Moreover, in such circumstances, Georgia would likely squander what support it currently enjoys. As it is, Georgia's withdrawal from the 1994 ceasefire only further undermines prospects of NATO membership.
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Old 08-30-08, 10:54 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: A new Georgian war brewing?

I'm sorry
but why is it I should care about what Georgia and Russia do?
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Old 09-05-08, 10:29 AM   #6 (permalink)
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