Economic collapse !!

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

https://www.facebook.com/RP.Revolut...4907192614323/689681181136919/?type=3&theater

Word of advice: invest in defense stocks.

OMG! Sell Sell Sell!!!!!!!!!!

GoNavy said:

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

https://www.facebook.com/RP.Revolut...4907192614323/689681181136919/?type=3&theater

Click to expand...

Are you aware of the difference between a stock market BUST and a stock market CORRECTION? And if you had money in the stock market the day before the Great Recession hit and left it in the same stocks until today, with most stocks you'd not only have made your money back, but you'd have made more than if you'd sold all your stack the day before and put it in the bank.

If you've been paying attention, there are indeed signs that we're overdue for a significant correction, and it would not be surprising if it did turn into a relatively minor recession...but that's also the nature of the stock market - ups and downs. The difference this time is that there's significantly more regulation that should almost certainly prevent the market from plummeting as it did in 2008. There's no guarantee, but then, there's no guarantees with seat belts, either.

That said, y'all on the Right just wish that y'all had half the economic achievements to brag about that Obama does: slowest growth of government since Eisenhower, lowest federal tax burden per capita since Truman, and the longest (and still going) streak of private-sector job growth in American history...all in the face of the worst political obstruction by the opposition party since the Civil War. No matter what happens, Obama has those bragging rights...and there's nothing you can do about it.

Glen Contrarian said:

Are you aware of the difference between a stock market BUST and a stock market CORRECTION? And if you had money in the stock market the day before the Great Recession hit and left it in the same stocks until today, with most stocks you'd not only have made your money back, but you'd have made more than if you'd sold all your stack the day before and put it in the bank.

If you've been paying attention, there are indeed signs that we're overdue for a significant correction, and it would not be surprising if it did turn into a relatively minor recession...but that's also the nature of the stock market - ups and downs. The difference this time is that there's significantly more regulation that should almost certainly prevent the market from plummeting as it did in 2008. There's no guarantee, but then, there's no guarantees with seat belts, either.

That said, y'all on the Right just wish that y'all had half the economic achievements to brag about that Obama does: slowest growth of government since Eisenhower, lowest federal tax burden per capita since Truman, and the longest (and still going) streak of private-sector job growth in American history...all in the face of the worst political obstruction by the opposition party since the Civil War. No matter what happens, Obama has those bragging rights...and there's nothing you can do about it.

Click to expand...

Two things to address.



For all intents and purposes, there is no difference between a stock market crash, and a stock market correction.

And the great depression was almost 100 years ago. So, no, for the majority of stocks, had you remained invested in them...those companies would have gone out of business, and you would be left holding the bag. Not a lot of companies survived from then till now.

GoNavy said:

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

https://www.facebook.com/RP.Revolut...4907192614323/689681181136919/?type=3&theater

Click to expand...

You should be looking at this graph instead:



And reconsider the governments role in the distribution of income.

GoNavy said:

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

https://www.facebook.com/RP.Revolut...4907192614323/689681181136919/?type=3&theater

Click to expand...

What an incredibly well sourced and learned post.

NOT

GoNavy said:

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

https://www.facebook.com/RP.Revolut...4907192614323/689681181136919/?type=3&theater

Click to expand...

thats how capitalism works!

Glen Contrarian said:

Are you aware of the difference between a stock market BUST and a stock market CORRECTION? And if you had money in the stock market the day before the Great Recession hit and left it in the same stocks until today, with most stocks you'd not only have made your money back, but you'd have made more than if you'd sold all your stack the day before and put it in the bank.

If you've been paying attention, there are indeed signs that we're overdue for a significant correction, and it would not be surprising if it did turn into a relatively minor recession...but that's also the nature of the stock market - ups and downs. The difference this time is that there's significantly more regulation that should almost certainly prevent the market from plummeting as it did in 2008. There's no guarantee, but then, there's no guarantees with seat belts, either.

That said, y'all on the Right just wish that y'all had half the economic achievements to brag about that Obama does: slowest growth of government since Eisenhower, lowest federal tax burden per capita since Truman, and the longest (and still going) streak of private-sector job growth in American history...all in the face of the worst political obstruction by the opposition party since the Civil War. No matter what happens, Obama has those bragging rights...and there's nothing you can do about it.

Click to expand...

Bragging Rights?? Really ?? ... haha ... here we go - 1. He failed to end the GWoT; 2. Failed Immigration Policy; 3. Drone-use hypocrisy; 4. Ludicrous Energy Policy; 5. Mandated Fine for failure to purchase Health Insurance; 6. Long Term Unemployed Increase by 86,000; 7. Consumer Prices Increase by 12%; 8. Food Stamp recipients increase by almost 50% !!; 9. Home Ownership down 3.2%; 10. Debt held by public has doubled; 11. U6 Unemployment is at 10%; 12. Labor Force Participation is as low as 1978; 13. NET Full-Time jobs created since January '09 ... maybe 2.5 million while population grew 16.8 million

HOORAY !! The rich are richer. Our foreign policy is just as bad as 2008. Immigration is the same. We spy. We use drones. We give benefits to big coal and demonize it at the same time. We take money out of peoples' savings if they don't buy insurance. Long Term Unemployment is up. Food stamps are up. Home ownership is down. Debt is up up UP !!!!! U6 Unemployment is at 10%. Labor Force Participation is awful.

BUT corporate profits are up !! That's what matters. BRAGGING RIGHTS - fo shizzle !!

GoNavy said:

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

https://www.facebook.com/RP.Revolut...4907192614323/689681181136919/?type=3&theater

Click to expand...

That might be why everyone is trying to be super proactive right now and get people to change things since they know we are heading to a collapse. However people like those who got work in 1993 and older members are too ignorant or stubborn to understand what issues we are facing TODAY.

KevinKohler said:

Two things to address.



For all intents and purposes, there is no difference between a stock market crash, and a stock market correction.

Click to expand...

I guess as long as you don't pay attention to, you know, like, PROFESSIONALS, that might be true. You have not disclosed your political lean, but you seem conservative, and conservatives do have a habit of not listening to professionals (e.g. global warming, paleobiologists, economists, anyone who doesn't adhere to conservative dogma). That, and they seem to have a real problem confusing matters of degree, as in comparing proverbial molehills to mountains.

But just so ya might have an opportunity to learn what a stock market CORRECTION is:

DEFINITION OF 'CORRECTION'
A reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10% in a stock, bond, commodity or index to adjust for an overvaluation. Corrections are generally temporary price declines interrupting an uptrend in the market or an asset. A correction has a shorter duration than a bear market or a recession, but it can be a precursor to either.

And the great depression was almost 100 years ago. So, no, for the majority of stocks, had you remained invested in them...those companies would have gone out of business, and you would be left holding the bag. Not a lot of companies survived from then till now.

Click to expand...

Um, it might do you good to look back at my post - I never mentioned the Great DEPRESSION (which happened 83 and not 100 years go). I referred to the Great RECESSION (which happened SEVEN years ago).

I'm pretty sure you were in a rush - but you have to be careful when you're reading and replying in a rush - that's how mistakes get made.

there are always doomsayers

and there will always be market ups and downs

today's market is more fickle than 30-40 years ago because of volatility....which people bet on

they love the big swings as the more volatile, the more they make

but there are some market rules that are just as good today as back in the 1940's

1. dont buy hype
2. dont overpay for value
3. buy companies that have growing power
4. dont try to time the market

those are my golden rules....and they have worked for me for 30+ years

GoNavy said:

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

https://www.facebook.com/RP.Revolut...4907192614323/689681181136919/?type=3&theater

Click to expand...

Obama supporters are nothing but a bunch of brain dead leeches. They are idiots. And because none of them pay taxes, the rest of us are going to get the bill.

GoNavy said:

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

https://www.facebook.com/RP.Revolut...4907192614323/689681181136919/?type=3&theater

Click to expand...

The graph off that page...



Using the S&P 500 alone is not a very good measure of where an economic bubble has formed, or when it will pop. The mistakes that Greenspan or Bernanke made, or that Janet Yellen is making now, have little to do with wherever the various equity markets were at the time. If anything, market performance has been influenced by economic and monetary policy usually based on corporations and investors taking advantage of whatever the government and the Fed gives them.

To understand what is actually an economic bubble is to understand what is used to evaluate economic conditions by trend, which usually comes down to a product or service price over a period of time in comparison to a basket of products and services. The Dot Com bubble is then an evaluation of business and product expansion into that area of the markets outside of the normal growth across the board of all businesses and products for the same period, and the Housing bubble is an expansion of housing prices and ownership over percentages for an entire basket of products and services over the same period.

To look at what may be a bubble today means evaluating the same thing, something driving market performance over an above the fundamentals of the entire market.

I would agree that the equity markets over the past 5-6 years have been driven by QE policy and the reporting of higher corporate profits on the back of moderate to low growth, but if a bubble has formed I would argue it is either in the debt market or the currency exchange markets. Either way and given our bubble and pop economic model we have been running for decades now, the next pop is around the corner. Technically by every model of economics, there will always be positives and negative points to any and all realized economic cycles.

It would be absent of all reality to assume the markets, or a factor of the markets, will always and without exception continue to climb indefinitely. That was the thinking that got us into trouble with the Housing bubble in the first place, and might be the thinking that leads to unsustainable debt becoming realized at some point.

GoNavy said:

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

Click to expand...

Let us know when you learn the basics of economics. Or reasoning.

GoNavy said:

I remember Greenspan saying the economy was just fine ... before the DotCom Bubble burst. I remember Bernanke saying the economy was just fine ... before the Housing Bubble burst. And here we are ... our economy is SOARING !! ... according to all the Obama-supporters ...

https://www.facebook.com/RP.Revolut...4907192614323/689681181136919/?type=3&theater

Click to expand...

You may have selective memory as Greenspan did indeed warn the the economy was out of whack before it corrected...

Greenspan Says Economy's Recent Growth Rate Can't Go on
Alan Greenspan Irrational Exuberance - Business Insider

GoNavy said:

Bragging Rights?? Really ?? ... haha ... here we go - 1. He failed to end the GWoT; 2. Failed Immigration Policy; 3. Drone-use hypocrisy; 4. Ludicrous Energy Policy; 5. Mandated Fine for failure to purchase Health Insurance; 6. Long Term Unemployed Increase by 86,000; 7. Consumer Prices Increase by 12%; 8. Food Stamp recipients increase by almost 50% !!; 9. Home Ownership down 3.2%; 10. Debt held by public has doubled; 11. U6 Unemployment is at 10%; 12. Labor Force Participation is as low as 1978; 13. NET Full-Time jobs created since January '09 ... maybe 2.5 million while population grew 16.8 million

HOORAY !! The rich are richer. Our foreign policy is just as bad as 2008. Immigration is the same. We spy. We use drones. We give benefits to big coal and demonize it at the same time. We take money out of peoples' savings if they don't buy insurance. Long Term Unemployment is up. Food stamps are up. Home ownership is down. Debt is up up UP !!!!! U6 Unemployment is at 10%. Labor Force Participation is awful.

BUT corporate profits are up !! That's what matters. BRAGGING RIGHTS - fo shizzle !!

Click to expand...

Is ANY of that accurate?

He can hardly be blamed for the situation he inherited, the changing US demographics, or the ideologically conservative individual mandate.

reason10 said:

Obama supporters are nothing but a bunch of brain dead leeches. They are idiots. And because none of them pay taxes, the rest of us are going to get the bill.

Click to expand...

Well, anecdotes are never an argument except when the argument is all or none. You do know there are plenty of very wealthy people that pay more in taxes than you will earn in a lifetime that support Obama, starting with two of the wealthiest of Americans, Gates and Buffett. I too am a Obama supporter and too have paid a ton in FIT (well into seven figures) so your premise is flawed. I'm no idiot. I simply see life differently than you do. Intelligent people can understand that people can and do have different perspective of things. Secure people can not only tolerate these differences, they can learn from them.

Your post here does nothing to drive debate forward. It only dumbs it down. My advice to you, as a new member of this community, is to adjust your tone and show a little more respect for your adversaries, lest your shelf life on DP will be pretty short.

Glen Contrarian said:

I guess as long as you don't pay attention to, you know, like, PROFESSIONALS, that might be true. You have not disclosed your political lean, but you seem conservative, and conservatives do have a habit of not listening to professionals (e.g. global warming, paleobiologists, economists, anyone who doesn't adhere to conservative dogma). That, and they seem to have a real problem confusing matters of degree, as in comparing proverbial molehills to mountains.

But just so ya might have an opportunity to learn what a stock market CORRECTION is:

DEFINITION OF 'CORRECTION'
A reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10% in a stock, bond, commodity or index to adjust for an overvaluation. Corrections are generally temporary price declines interrupting an uptrend in the market or an asset. A correction has a shorter duration than a bear market or a recession, but it can be a precursor to either.



Um, it might do you good to look back at my post - I never mentioned the Great DEPRESSION (which happened 83 and not 100 years go). I referred to the Great RECESSION (which happened SEVEN years ago).

I'm pretty sure you were in a rush - but you have to be careful when you're reading and replying in a rush - that's how mistakes get made.

Click to expand...

Do you have any sources for your - "conservatives do have a habit of not listening to professionals" - or are you just partisan bashing?

I was hoping for less troll activity. Definitely not advancing the discussion.

Visbek said:

Let us know when you learn the basics of economics. Or reasoning.

Click to expand...

Greenspan - did - say the economy was fine in 2000. Fact.
Bernanke - did - say the economy was fine in 2008. Fact.
And I've taken economics.

Care to elaborate? Or is that how you contribute ... in life? Throw rocks and walk away? Not very objective or academic.

Well, anecdotes are never an argument except when the argument is all or none. You do know there are plenty of very wealthy people that pay more in taxes than you will earn in a lifetime that support Obama, starting with two of the wealthiest of Americans, Gates and Buffett.

Click to expand...

Absolutely. Obama is making Wall Street richer than ever. Hell, that son of a bitch has actually found a way to funnel TRILLIONS of dollars from the poor and middle class to INSURANCE COMPANIES.

Frankly, admitting one voted for Obama is not necessarily a resume enhancer, especially if you are thinking of a mensa membership.

Absentglare said:

Is ANY of that accurate?

He can hardly be blamed for the situation he inherited, the changing US demographics, or the ideologically conservative individual mandate.

Click to expand...

You seriously give me THAT much creative credit ?? You flatter me How very kind of you. Hahaha - I wish I was that creative. But, I'm not. You can find most of those stats from BLS. Is he guilty for the situation he inherited? Never said he was. But he has had 7 FREAKING YEARS to end a nebulous-goal (AT BEST) GWoT. And failed. Abysmally. The voters spoke when they put a massive GOP presence in the House. And the voice of the people has said time and time again that his methods are polarizing and divisive. His methods and execution have FURTHER eroded the middle class.

The rich are richer. The poor are poorer. That is his legacy.

CNN Money: The problem when Donald Trump rails against the debt

So what exactly would Trump do about the debt? Judging from what he's said publicly, the answers range from "really hard to say" to "he will make it worse."

For starters, Trump has proposed a tax reform plan full of tax cuts that will cost between $10 trillion and $12 trillion over a decade, according to very preliminary estimates from the Tax Foundation.

Click to expand...

GoNavy said:

failed to end the GWoT

Click to expand...

He also failed to start a completely unnecessary and very expensive war. How do you propose to end the so-called War on Terrorism? Kill all Muslims?

>>2. Failed Immigration Policy

Our ongoing failed immigration policy is the product of ignorant, bigoted opposition from the far Right.

>>3. Drone-use hypocrisy

How is it a failure? We've killed a lot of the top leadership of Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations.

>>4. Ludicrous Energy Policy

Gasoline and natural gas prices way down.

>>5. Mandated Fine for failure to purchase Health Insurance

A conservative policy to end free-rider leeching/teat-sucking.

>>6. Long Term Unemployed Increase by 86,000

Down 895K under Obummer. Down 4.7 million since Apr 2010, a decline of 69%.

>>7. Consumer Prices Increase by 12%

Up by 11.7%, the slowest rate of increase in more than fifty years. Average weekly private-sector earnings in Mar 2009 were $763. Last month they were $866, up 13.5%.

>>8. Food Stamp recipients increase by almost 50%

Average monthly participation in SNAP was 33.5 million in 2009. It's now 45.5 million, up 35.8%. In 2010, it was 40.3 million, so since the labor market stopped imploding due to the GOP SSE Great Recession, participation is up 11.4%. Since Dec 2012, the rate is down by 4.8%. An increase in the minimum wage would likely hasten the decline.

>>9. Home Ownership down 3.2%

Up .3% in Q3, and at the same level it was in the first half of 1994, before the dot.com and housing bubbles.

>>10. Debt held by public has doubled

No, that would be 100%, whereas in reality it is up 63%, from $11.1 trillion to 18.2. Since Q1 2013, when a good amount of the damage to the economy had been repaired, it's up 8.2%. As a percentage of GDP, it's down .7% over those past thirty months.

>>11. U6 Unemployment is at 10%

Lower than it was all of 1994-95 and 2003.



>>12. Labor Force Participation is as low as 1978

Demographics.

>>13. NET Full-Time jobs created since January '09 ... maybe 2.5 million while population grew 16.8 million

First, yer use of "net" is absurd. The figures are always net.

Secondly, yer use of "maybe" is appropriate. The problem is yer wrong. Full-time employment is up 7.1 million under Obummer, from 114.7 million to 121.8. Since Dec 2009, when the labor market stopped hemorrhaging jobs as as result of the GOP SSE Great Recession, it's up 11.3 million.

Absentglare said:

Is ANY of that accurate?

Click to expand...

It's a pile of crap.

GoNavy said:

You seriously give me THAT much creative credit ?? You flatter me How very kind of you. Hahaha - I wish I was that creative. But, I'm not.

Click to expand...

I agree. Yer not creative. You absorb ridiculously stupid lies from right-wing hate media outlets and puke them up here.

>.You can find most of those stats from BLS.

No, you cannot. Otoh, all the data I posted can be easily verified.

>>The voters spoke when they put a massive GOP presence in the House.

Massive? The teabugger caucus is being run over. They lost on the speakership, they lost on the budget, they lost on the debt ceiling.

>>the voice of the people has said time and time again that his methods are polarizing and divisive.

If you consider Limpblow, Handjob, Blech, etc, "the voice of the people."

>>The rich are richer. The poor are poorer. That is his legacy.

That is the legacy of GOP SSE macroeconomic policy that started in 1981. When Democrats regain control of the House after the 2020 census, the real work of undoing all that damage will begin.

GoNavy said:

Greenspan - did - say the economy was fine in 2000. Fact.
Bernanke - did - say the economy was fine in 2008. Fact.
And I've taken economics.

Care to elaborate? Or is that how you contribute ... in life? Throw rocks and walk away? Not very objective or academic.

Click to expand...

Elaborate, on pointing out that you have no concept of what you're talking about? OK.

In terms of economics: Your argument clearly has zero economic knowledge, awareness, theory, anything. It is not discussing anything economic at all.


In terms of reason:

Thousands of analysts are constantly making calls on the economy. So right now, someone is undoubtedly saying "the economy is about to crash" and others will say "it's about to go up." As such, it is utterly idiotic to suggest that the economy is about to crash because of a few out-of-context statements made by Greenspan and Bernanke.

I'm also not sure which statements by Bernanke you're referring to. For example, in January 2008, testifying before Congress per usual, first words out of his mouth:

"Since late last summer, financial markets in the United States and in a number of other industrialized countries have been under considerable strain. Heightened investor concerns about the credit quality of mortgages, especially subprime mortgages with adjustable interest rates, triggered the financial turmoil. Notably, as the rising rate of delinquencies of subprime mortgages threatened to impose losses on holders of even highly rated securities, investors were led to question the reliability of the credit ratings for a range of financial products, including structured credit products and various special-purpose vehicles. As investors lost confidence in their ability to value complex financial products, they became increasingly unwilling to hold such instruments. As a result, flows of credit through these vehicles have contracted significantly."

The rest of his statement was basically, "hold onto your britches." April 2008 statement was equally gloomy.

This is not surprising, since the financial crisis was well under way at that point. The stock market had peaked in October 2007; a few British banks were exhibiting issues; the Fed had already cut rates; he was hinting at fiscal stimulus.

I do think we can say that Bernanke was off base, for the most part, in 2007. By 2008, he had a better idea. I don't think anyone, including the Permabears who constantly predict doom, truly understood how the crash was going to happen, or how bad it was going to be, until it hit. No one really understood how interconnected the system had become until it was too late.

Even without the factual error(s), your fundamental claim -- "X said Y, and -Y happened; therefore, any time someone says X, -Y will happen" is patently ridiculous, and an example of a spurious correlation.

And how do you bolster your argument? By repeating it. With no elaboration whatsoever.

Thus: Your comments display little understanding of economics, or basic reasoning.

Aren't you glad you asked me to elaborate?