With Trump, back to "trickle down" economics, will it work this time?

Trump's economic plan is a tax cut. I am sure he will tell us that cutting taxes will increase jobs and actually increase tax revenues. Where have we heard this before, oh yes, Reagan and Bush junior said the same thing when they cut taxes. THose tax cuts led to increases in deficits without any real economic growth. In fact with Bush we got a recession that came close to a depression. Well Trumps tax cut will again go almost entirely to the wealthy. The biggest change in his tax cut vs Bush's is that Trump's tax cut will get rid of the head of household. This will mean tax increases for single parents who have been using the head of household deduction. For them the tax increase will be over 2 grand a year.

No, it will not work.

Obama and the 114th Congress already handed a fairly large deficit to Trump and the 115th Congress to deal with, if Trump and the 115th go the tax cuts route without any other changes to the budget then the deficit will explode in the short term making any economic increases to tax revenue unlikely to catch up. Odds are we will be in deficit territory at the end of Trump's first term no matter how well the economy performs.

This never worked for Reagan, never worked for Bush 41, and never worked for Bush 43 (never worked for various state governments... like Kansas and Louisiana.) Some economic activity, arguably at least aided by the tax cuts, but revenue did not eclipse outlays because of the policy.

We have no real economic indication (or even plausible economic projection) that we can obtain budget surplus anytime soon on the back of a Trump tax cut.

Expect Debt held by the Public (and Total Debt) to go up.

Analysis of Donald Trump's Tax Plan | Tax Policy Center

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes presidential candidate Donald Trump’s tax proposal. His plan would significantly reduce marginal tax rates on individuals and businesses, increase standard deduction amounts to nearly four times current levels, and curtail many tax expenditures. His proposal would cut taxes at all income levels, although the largest benefits, in dollar and percentage terms, would go to the highest-income households. The plan would reduce federal revenues by $9.5 trillion over its first decade before accounting for added interest costs or considering macroeconomic feedback effects. The plan would improve incentives to work, save, and invest. However, unless it is accompanied by very large spending cuts, it could increase the national debt by nearly 80 percent of gross domestic product by 2036, offsetting some or all of the incentive effects of the tax cuts.

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independentusa said:

Trump's economic plan is a tax cut. I am sure he will tell us that cutting taxes will increase jobs and actually increase tax revenues. Where have we heard this before, oh yes, Reagan and Bush junior said the same thing when they cut taxes. THose tax cuts led to increases in deficits without any real economic growth. In fact with Bush we got a recession that came close to a depression. Well Trumps tax cut will again go almost entirely to the wealthy. The biggest change in his tax cut vs Bush's is that Trump's tax cut will get rid of the head of household. This will mean tax increases for single parents who have been using the head of household deduction. For them the tax increase will be over 2 grand a year.

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It trickles down okay. The trouble is that the method of catching the cash is different to cashing a welfare check.