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Ten Point Swing For Donald Trump In Four Days

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volsrock

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Trump is now at 45 percent with likely voters, up seven points from his low of 38 percent earlier in the month. Hillary Clinton is at 47 percent while Gary Johnson is at four percent and Jill Stein is at two percent.

That marks a seven point jump for Trump in just four days. Trump’s opponent Hillary Clinton has seen her numbers drop three points in the same time period, making a 10 point swing in Trump’s favor.


ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll: Ten Point Swing For Donald Trump In Four Days - Breitbart


And this entire 10 point slide was BEFORE the Hillary FBI Bombshell yesterday afternoon.

It’s looking like 1980 all over again.
 
volsrock said:
Trump is now at 45 percent with likely voters, up seven points from his low of 38 percent earlier in the month. Hillary Clinton is at 47 percent while Gary Johnson is at four percent and Jill Stein is at two percent.

That marks a seven point jump for Trump in just four days. Trump’s opponent Hillary Clinton has seen her numbers drop three points in the same time period, making a 10 point swing in Trump’s favor.


ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll: Ten Point Swing For Donald Trump In Four Days - Breitbart


And this entire 10 point slide was BEFORE the Hillary FBI Bombshell yesterday afternoon.

It’s looking like 1980 all over again.
Click to expand...

So maybe we won't get leprosy. We'll get syphilis instead.
Whoop-de-doo.
 
volsrock said:
Trump is now at 45 percent with likely voters, up seven points from his low of 38 percent earlier in the month. Hillary Clinton is at 47 percent while Gary Johnson is at four percent and Jill Stein is at two percent.

That marks a seven point jump for Trump in just four days. Trump’s opponent Hillary Clinton has seen her numbers drop three points in the same time period, making a 10 point swing in Trump’s favor.


ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll: Ten Point Swing For Donald Trump In Four Days - Breitbart


And this entire 10 point slide was BEFORE the Hillary FBI Bombshell yesterday afternoon.

It’s looking like 1980 all over again.
Click to expand...



the problem is you quote breitbart. you know better.
 
volsrock said:
Trump is now at 45 percent with likely voters, up seven points from his low of 38 percent earlier in the month. Hillary Clinton is at 47 percent while Gary Johnson is at four percent and Jill Stein is at two percent.

That marks a seven point jump for Trump in just four days. Trump’s opponent Hillary Clinton has seen her numbers drop three points in the same time period, making a 10 point swing in Trump’s favor.


ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll: Ten Point Swing For Donald Trump In Four Days - Breitbart


And this entire 10 point slide was BEFORE the Hillary FBI Bombshell yesterday afternoon.

It’s looking like 1980 all over again.
Click to expand...

It's not like 1980 because that mythos of the Reagan outdoing the polling that every losing candidate in each election continuously brings up isn't really true. The one poll everyone talks about is the Gallup poll which did have Carter up in mid-October. But the sum of all the polling consistently had a Reagan lead through October and even Gallup's last poll showed him with a lead.

And while Clinton's margin has shrunk by 10 over the last week in the ABC poll, the IBD/TIPP that all the Trump supporters had been raving about as the most accurate poll has swung 8 points toward Clinton in the same time frame. Now Trump supporters have convienently forgotten the IBD poll exists while Clinton supporters have stopped trumpeting the ABC poll as a paragon of accuracy and there've been a few left wing sites have written the last couple of days about all the methodological errors that the ABC poll has. Individual tracking polls inherently have a lot of noise.

It's easy to cherry pick polls that favor your own side. People need to look more at the sum of all the data, rather than finding and trumpeting the ones that put their candidate in the best position.
 
Someone on the Con propaganda networks must have mentioned the 1980 election, because every single Trump lemming on this site has mentioned it over the last 4-5 days. And we pretty much know they can't think for themselves, so it must be a hot topic on Hannity and Limbaugh's shows.

But a little homework will show that there is very little in common with the 1980 and 2016 polls.
 
volsrock said:
Trump is now at 45 percent with likely voters, up seven points from his low of 38 percent earlier in the month. Hillary Clinton is at 47 percent while Gary Johnson is at four percent and Jill Stein is at two percent.

That marks a seven point jump for Trump in just four days. Trump’s opponent Hillary Clinton has seen her numbers drop three points in the same time period, making a 10 point swing in Trump’s favor.


ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll: Ten Point Swing For Donald Trump In Four Days - Breitbart


And this entire 10 point slide was BEFORE the Hillary FBI Bombshell yesterday afternoon.

It’s looking like 1980 all over again.
Click to expand...
I wonder why you quoted Brietbart - which is highly partisan and often skewed - vs ABC so we can review the ABC comments and methodology.

But no harm, as Breibart had a link to the ABC poll.

Yeah - this is a monster move, especially when considering the movement occurred within the same poll, and only 4 days apart!

Other polls are also showing big intra-poll movement, including Fox, so something's definitely shaking here. And as you mentioned, these recent polls are pre-Comey announcement.

After reading the poll itself, it appears quite a few things are happening, but predominate is 'likely turnout' spiking for Trump, and conversely dipping for HRC. The Trump spike seems to reflect alienated Republicans coming back home, including women.

It's powerful stuff.

--

Here's the ABC poll, itself:

ABC WaPo: 2016 Election Tracking No. 7

And here's the link to it's release and commentary on ABC:

ABC News: Shift in the Electorate's Makeup Tightens the Presidential Contest (POLL)
 
katzgar said:
the problem is you quote breitbart. you know better.
Click to expand...
But none-the-less it is a valid ABC poll, and Breitbart does indeed link to the poll itself for examination.

See my post #6 for links, if you'd like.
 
Grand Mal said:
So maybe we won't get leprosy. We'll get syphilis instead.
Whoop-de-doo.
Click to expand...

I think anal fissures would be better. I don't know what that is even, but I like saying anal fissures.
 
A few points:

1. The race was always going to tighten, it often does as independents and undecides get their collective asses off the fence.

2. Whenever I see, especially the more extremist DP members get a little too excited about something, usually turns out to be a dud and let's not forget, voters have outrage and scandal fatigue, both candidates are plagued by it... no one who was going to vote for Clinton was under any illusion of the dark clouds that sorrounded her... is this really going to push that many people into the arms of the racist ***** grabbing tangerine gorilla? I'm not so sure.

3. Opposition research... Now, if the Clinton camp was still sitting on something they in theory should have released it by now to seal the deal... let's say for arguments sake they still have something, too early and they'll look desperate, too late and it has no impact, but don't discount it's possible existence.

4. Trump is still Trump.

5. Trump has no ground game whatsoever, the democrats organizational and logistical capability may still carry the day.
 
Anagram said:
It's not like 1980 because that mythos of the Reagan outdoing the polling that every losing candidate in each election continuously brings up isn't really true. The one poll everyone talks about is the Gallup poll which did have Carter up in mid-October. But the sum of all the polling consistently had a Reagan lead through October and even Gallup's last poll showed him with a lead.

And while Clinton's margin has shrunk by 10 over the last week in the ABC poll, the IBD/TIPP that all the Trump supporters had been raving about as the most accurate poll has swung 8 points toward Clinton in the same time frame. Now Trump supporters have convienently forgotten the IBD poll exists while Clinton supporters have stopped trumpeting the ABC poll as a paragon of accuracy and there've been a few left wing sites have written the last couple of days about all the methodological errors that the ABC poll has. Individual tracking polls inherently have a lot of noise.

It's easy to cherry pick polls that favor your own side. People need to look more at the sum of all the data, rather than finding and trumpeting the ones that put their candidate in the best position.
Click to expand...
I agree.

But poll aggregators are slow to respond to instantaneous news, which is both their pro and their con.

And late in a race with many big surprises and highly erratic polling as we see here, I think there's a natural tendency to want to trust the immediate polls as showing where the race is in an instantaneous moment in time.

But I must point this out: We're seeing some large changes within the same polls! That's quite different than differences across polls.

I earlier predicted a tightening reversion from the earlier depth of Trump bad news + HRC good debaes debates. But these last few polls, when compared intra-poll to their previous results, are pretty startling to me. And besides large changes in magnitude, they are all changed in the same direction. I call that a trend! All this draws my attention even moreso, when it's highly likely HRC will suffer some type of ding from the Comey announcement - even if it only turns out to be small and transient.
 
Chomsky said:
I agree.

But poll aggregators are slow to respond to instantaneous news, which is both their pro and their con.

And late in a race with many big surprises and highly erratic polling as we see here, I think there's a natural tendency to want to trust the immediate polls as showing where the race is in an instantaneous moment in time.

But I must point this out: We're seeing some large changes within the same polls! That's quite different than differences across polls.

I earlier predicted a tightening reversion from the earlier depth of Trump bad news + HRC good debaes debates. But these last few polls, when compared intra-poll to their previous results, are pretty startling to me. And besides large changes in magnitude, they are all changed in the same direction. I call that a trend! All this draws my attention even moreso, when it's highly likely HRC will suffer some type of ding from the Comey announcement - even if it only turns out to be small and transient.
Click to expand...

Looking at the most recent polls to find trends is a good thing. But just looking at a single tracking poll isn't necessarily a good way to do that. Because of the way they're done, with small samples every day occasionally they'll have big outlier days that will show a sudden spike for one candidate and then will look like a huge spike for the other when that day drops off. It's this type of thing that can explain why the ABC poll can have a Trump +10 swing during the exact same period of time that IBD has a Clinton +8 swing. Movement in a tracking poll, doesn't necessarily mean a trend.
 
Jetboogieman said:
A few points:

1. The race was always going to tighten, it often does as independents and undecides get their collective asses off the fence.

2. Whenever I see, especially the more extremist DP members get a little too excited about something, usually turns out to be a dud and let's not forget, voters have outrage and scandal fatigue, both candidates are plagued by it... no one who was going to vote for Clinton was under any illusion of the dark clouds that sorrounded her... is this really going to push that many people into the arms of the racist ***** grabbing tangerine gorilla? I'm not so sure.

3. Opposition research... Now, if the Clinton camp was still sitting on something they in theory should have released it by now to seal the deal... let's say for arguments sake they still have something, too early and they'll look desperate, too late and it has no impact, but don't discount it's possible existence.

4. Trump is still Trump.

5. Trump has no ground game whatsoever, the democrats organizational and logistical capability may still carry the day.
Click to expand...
All fair & good.

But what piques my interest substantially is Trump's rising numbers amongst likely voters, along with a spike-up in the percentage of GOP supporting him. This tells me that the reticent GOP are coming home to him finally, and this was the same conclusion drawn by the comments in the poll itself as well as in the ABC release article (links in post #6 here). This is potentially a big deal, since Trump's floor is rising into the mid 40's and this is sort of a breakout for him.

Now the double-whammy here is Clinton's loss of support in likely voters, which I attribute to her recent success and appearing fait accompli, causing less motivation in her supporters to actually turn out (therefore they report as a 'not likely' voter; i.e, 'registered'). She can get that back however, if her supporters fear she is vulnerable, which will likely occuer.

Crazy as it sounds, she might be best to 'go Trump' and claim the Republican FBI head is out to get her for his cronies. Even though there's still quite a few undecideds left, she will likely excel with a strong Dem showing, given the larger Dem national base and their structural advantages. But I'm not entirely sure that's the way to go - that might flip the undecideds away from her. But it's an interesting quandary.
 
Anagram said:
Looking at the most recent polls to find trends is a good thing. But just looking at a single tracking poll isn't necessarily a good way to do that. Because of the way they're done, with small samples every day occasionally they'll have big outlier days that will show a sudden spike for one candidate and then will look like a huge spike for the other when that day drops off. It's this type of thing that can explain why the ABC poll can have a Trump +10 swing during the exact same period of time that IBD has a Clinton +8 swing. Movement in a tracking poll, doesn't necessarily mean a trend.
Click to expand...

Did IBD have such a swing?

(I'm not aware)

If so, then that's a good point!
 
Chomsky said:
But none-the-less it is a valid ABC poll, and Breitbart does indeed link to the poll itself for examination.

See my post #6 for links, if you'd like.
Click to expand...


have you a theory why one would quote breitbart instead of a legit site when available?
 
I am not believing the polling, will look after to see how right they ended up being but with as many errors has the pollsters have had over the last few years and with as asymmetrical as Trump works my confidence level is poor. But I gotta say, and not only because of the polling, that Johnson sure looks like all he ever was was a mirage. This was the year to have somebody like a John B Anderson running, somebody with some poltical talent. Man, this year some one like that would have cleaned up.
 
katzgar said:
have you a theory why one would quote breitbart instead of a legit site when available?
Click to expand...
It would seem obvious.

He's likely a Trump supporter.

Others may quote The Daily Kos.

But I doubt I'd quote either for anything but opinion. Which is why I asked him, in my first post.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
I am not believing the polling, will look after to see how right they ended up being but with as many errors has the pollsters have had over the last few years and with as asymmetrical as Trump works my confidence level is poor. But I gotta say, and not only because of the polling, that Johnson sure looks like all he ever was was a mirage. This was the year to have somebody like a John B Anderson running, somebody with some poltical talent. Man, this year some one like that would have cleaned up.
Click to expand...
Funny. 'Cuz now I'm starting see in these polls a sign of life for your guy.

I think it's gonna' be pretty damn interesting next week! Seriously.
 
Curious poll. When it came out a week ago with a 13 point lead for Hillary it was her best poll. Today it's her worst as other polls show her maintaining a lead around five to six points nationally. She also remains ahead in most of the battleground polls.
 
JackA said:
Curious poll. When it came out a week ago with a 13 point lead for Hillary it was her best poll. Today it's her worst as other polls show her maintaining a lead around five to six points nationally. She also remains ahead in most of the battleground polls.
Click to expand...

Relying on these polls is futile.
I have more confidence in the results of early voting....and the media is keeping quiet on those results....wonder why?
Also have heard that James Comey has access to those results.

Do the "math" for yourself
 
Jetboogieman said:
Opposition research... Now, if the Clinton camp was still sitting on something they in theory should have released it by now to seal the deal... let's say for arguments sake they still have something, too early and they'll look desperate, too late and it has no impact, but don't discount it's possible existence.
Click to expand...
Oh yes, they'll definitely be looking to empty that bucket next week and whatever else they can to shift attention elsewhere.
 
Brewdog said:
I think anal fissures would be better. I don't know what that is even, but I like saying anal fissures.
Click to expand...

Ever had an anal fissure? You must have, or you wouldn't bring it up. Second most painful thing I've ever had, after a ruptured disk impinging on the sciatic nerve. Terrible, just awful.

Much like this election. Good analogy.
 
JackA said:
Today it's her worst as other polls show her maintaining a lead around five to six points nationally.
Click to expand...
Perhaps closer than that... the RCP poll average currently has her ahead by 3.8.
 
Chomsky said:
Funny. 'Cuz now I'm starting see in these polls a sign of life for your guy.

I think it's gonna' be pretty damn interesting next week! Seriously.
Click to expand...

I recommend looking at the polls but not taking them seriously.

Seriously.

Another problem with polling that is really starting to kick the asses of the elite is that we are now voting up to 5 (or is it 6?) weeks prior. These morons who run our government have got to get their act together, there is no reason to hold voting more than a week prior except for our armed forces overseas. This is an unreasonable and unnecessary complication of the system, which makes correct predictions of the results even more complicated.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
I recommend looking at the polls but not taking them seriously.

Seriously.

Another problem with polling that is really starting to kick the asses of the elite is that we are now voting up to 5 (or is it 6?) weeks prior. These morons who run our government have got to get their act together, there is no reason to hold voting more than a week prior except for our armed forces overseas. This is an unreasonable and unnecessary complication of the system, which makes correct predictions of the results even more complicated.
Click to expand...
I don't see a week working. IMO it's gotta be a minimum of 30 days. People travel, leave the country, take a vacation, travel for work, etc. We can't expect in modern society to time one's life to election day.
 
The race is getting tighter.
As much as people probably do not like trump
they don't like Hillary.

The problem is her total lack of ethics and her sever lack of morals.

Trump has an issue of being a loud mouth.
That is something in general people can over look.

Getting them to over look a plain lack of morales is completely different.
 
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