NBC's 1980 Election Night Coverage: Shock, Dismay -- and Faulty Polling

MickeyW · Oct 26, 2016

RUSH: Yesterday on this program I discussed the 1980 election, Ronaldus Magnus and Jimmy Carter, and in it I described the election night coverage that night and how I will never forget it. Because this was the election that they called it for Reagan before California had even closed the polls, it was such a landslide.

Yet the last polling data going into the election in 1980 had Jimmy Carter winning by nine points.

NBC's 1980 Election Night Coverage: Shock, Dismay -- and Faulty Polling - The Rush Limbaugh Show

Sherman123 · Oct 26, 2016

"Reagan's late-breaking surge that year is generally attributed to the only presidential debate between Carter and Reagan — held one week before the election, on Oct. 28 — which seemed to move voter preferences in Reagan's direction, as well as the ongoing Iran hostage crisis, which reached its one-year anniversary on Election Day. After trailing Carter by 8 points among registered voters (and by 3 points among likely voters) right before their debate, Reagan moved into a 3-point lead among likely voters immediately afterward, and he won the Nov. 4 election by 10 points."

Ronald Reagan Beat Jimmy Carter in a Landslide Despite Trailing 6% in Polls? : snopes.com

Crovax · Oct 26, 2016

MickeyW said:
RUSH: Yesterday on this program I discussed the 1980 election, Ronaldus Magnus and Jimmy Carter, and in it I described the election night coverage that night and how I will never forget it. Because this was the election that they called it for Reagan before California had even closed the polls, it was such a landslide.

Yet the last polling data going into the election in 1980 had Jimmy Carter winning by nine points.

NBC's 1980 Election Night Coverage: Shock, Dismay -- and Faulty Polling - The Rush Limbaugh Show

Wrong, the final Gallup poll had Reagan up by 3 points

shrubnose · Oct 26, 2016

Anyone who thinks that Trump will repeat what happened with Reagan is out of touch with reality.

yankintx · Oct 26, 2016

Trump is no RR, and this coming from a guy who leans left on social issues, the two are not even in the same arena. Reagan had class, something no amount of money Trump has can buy.

Taylor · Oct 26, 2016

Crovax said:
Wrong, the final Gallup poll had Reagan up by 3 points

Only because they switched to likely voters on the very last one; polls of registered voters tend to inflate the numbers for Democrats.

Taylor · Oct 26, 2016

yankintx said:
Reagan had class, something no amount of money Trump has can buy.

That's not what they were saying in 1980.

Crovax · Oct 26, 2016

Taylor said:
Only because they switched to likely voters on the very last one; polls of registered voters tend to inflate the numbers for Democrats.

The point being that Reagan was not down 9 points on election day he was already ahead and rising quick from a late debate which happened to be the only one. So Trump who will probably be down 9 points on election day so in no way expect a landslide win

yankintx · Oct 26, 2016

Taylor said:
That's not what they were saying in 1980.

I was a young un in 80, faint memories of my Dad groaning over RR landslide. Carter had class in defeat, the Don should take note.

joG · Oct 26, 2016

MickeyW said:
RUSH: Yesterday on this program I discussed the 1980 election, Ronaldus Magnus and Jimmy Carter, and in it I described the election night coverage that night and how I will never forget it. Because this was the election that they called it for Reagan before California had even closed the polls, it was such a landslide.

Yet the last polling data going into the election in 1980 had Jimmy Carter winning by nine points.

NBC's 1980 Election Night Coverage: Shock, Dismay -- and Faulty Polling - The Rush Limbaugh Show

The message you should be getting out there is that nobody need go out and vote for Clinton, because she can't lose: "Why bother Brothers? Have a joint instead"

DamnYankee · Oct 26, 2016

Taylor said:
That's not what they were saying in 1980.

True. The leftists were calling Reagan the same names they are calling DJT.

Mac77 · Oct 26, 2016

DamnYankee said:
True. The leftists were calling Reagan the same names they are calling DJT.

They still call reagan names and hate him above all other republicans

JumpinJack · Oct 26, 2016

MickeyW said:
RUSH: Yesterday on this program I discussed the 1980 election, Ronaldus Magnus and Jimmy Carter, and in it I described the election night coverage that night and how I will never forget it. Because this was the election that they called it for Reagan before California had even closed the polls, it was such a landslide.

Yet the last polling data going into the election in 1980 had Jimmy Carter winning by nine points.

NBC's 1980 Election Night Coverage: Shock, Dismay -- and Faulty Polling - The Rush Limbaugh Show

Well, 1980 polling and 2016 polling are not comparable. We've come a long way, baby.

I remember that election, though. I voted for Reagan. I also knew that Reagan would win. All I had to do was watch the news. The economy was out of control, with double digit inflation. Complaints by citizens everywhere. Even Carter's own party had tried to dissuade him from running for a 2nd term.

So I don't know what went wrong with that polling. Everyone seemed to know that Carter wouldn't win, as I recall, although no one suspected a landslide by Reagan.

I just looked it up. Wikipedia says the last poll for that election was Reagan 47%, Carter 44%. So the poll had picked up Reagan's last minute surge from 39% to 47%. In the end, it was the economy. And a third party interloper, who took quite a few votes from Carter but none from Reagan.

Not a great comparison, though. The times were different, polls were very different (they're better, now), and Carter was an incumbent, the economy was horrible, Carter's own party didn't support him fully and he even had a party member try to oust him (Teddy Kennedy). So, very different, in my view. But I understand how Trump supporters might want to view it as similar.

Taylor · Oct 26, 2016

Crovax said:
The point being that Reagan was not down 9 points on election day he was already ahead and rising quick from a late debate which happened to be the only one.

The debate probably helped, too - but much of the disparity between the last two data points can be credited to the shift to likely voters. Had they reported likely voters the week prior as well, Carter's lead would have been just three points rather than eight.

Crovax said:
So Trump who will probably be down 9 points on election day so in no way expect a landslide win

I don't know where you get that. He hasn't been down by 9 points since last April, and the latest data shows the spread at 4.4 and tightening.

Taylor · Oct 26, 2016

JumpinJack said:
Well, 1980 polling and 2016 polling are not comparable. We've come a long way, baby.

Gallup has apparently gone a long way in the other direction. They gave up on this year because their recent polling has been horrible.

JumpinJack · Oct 26, 2016

Taylor said:
Gallup has apparently gone a long way in the other direction. They gave up on this year because their recent polling has been horrible.

I read that. Hard to believe that a company with a good history of polling like Gallup, ended up going so wrong. But apparently it did.

SenorXm/Sirius · Oct 26, 2016

Yep, and this is another useless thread from a Trumpster that was proven wrong by the 3rd post. God I can't wait for this election to be over so then hopefully these needless threads will stop.

Anyway I remember that election well. The Iran Crisis, sky high interest rates, a piss poor economy, and Carter losing that debate? NO ONE thought Carter was going to win. He was toast, everyone knew it.

JumpinJack · Oct 26, 2016

yankintx said:
Trump is no RR, and this coming from a guy who leans left on social issues, the two are not even in the same arena. Reagan had class, something no amount of money Trump has can buy.

The difference between Reagan and Trump is stark. Reagan smiled a lot, had a great sense of humor, had a positive vision, believed in compromise up to a point, seemed to like all Americans, had never bragged about molesting women, good character, treated others respectfully. Such a difference.

Taylor · Oct 26, 2016

DamnYankee said:
True. The leftists were calling Reagan the same names they are calling DJT.

Lol, well if we can use this as a summary of the thinking on the left back then...

...you certainly see some parallels - stupid, radical, seeing himself as superman, can't be trusted with the nuclear arsenal, etc. Of course with Reagan, one of the biggest negatives they pushed was his age. Easy to see why they're not doing that this time.

Taylor · Oct 26, 2016

I don't think you can say that this election is like the one in 1980, but then again this election really isn't like any election. It's that different.

Crovax · Oct 26, 2016

Taylor said:
The debate probably helped, too - but much of the disparity between the last two data points can be credited to the shift to likely voters. Had they reported likely voters the week prior as well, Carter's lead would have been just three points rather than eight.

The point still stand that Reagan was not down big on election day in 1980 and those comparing 2016 to 1980 as part of a prediction that Trump will win are delusional

I don't know where you get that. He hasn't been down by 9 points since last April, and the latest data shows the spread at 4.4 and tightening.

The latest ABC and USA today polls have Trump down 9, the RCP polling average is 5.1 and the weighted 538 average is 6

Even Trump losing by just 4.4 points is an optimistic view at this point

MickeyW · Oct 26, 2016

shrubnose said:
Anyone who thinks that Trump will repeat what happened with Reagan is out of touch with reality.

No one is saying that....

yankintx said:
Trump is no RR, and this coming from a guy who leans left on social issues, the two are not even in the same arena. Reagan had class, something no amount of money Trump has can buy.

Nor all the millions that Clinton has, can buy her any class either. Hillary is a fraud....on the surface, she appears nice, underneath that facade....... is a gutter rat!

Taylor said:
That's not what they were saying in 1980.

Correct. RR was being called every vile name that the liberals could muster! Kind of like today.
And he brought more class and respect to the office, than anyone before or since.

Crovax said:
The point being that Reagan was not down 9 points on election day he was already ahead and rising quick from a late debate which happened to be the only one. So Trump who will probably be down 9 points on election day so in no way expect a landslide win

No one is saying there will be. I'm just hoping he can squeak by. Trump has more guts and chutzpah, then all the Republicans combined. The establishment Republicans are a bunch of gutless wonders. I'm sick of the lot of them!

yankintx said:
I was a young un in 80, faint memories of my Dad groaning over RR landslide. Carter had class in defeat, the Don should take note.

So should Hillary!

joG said:
The message you should be getting out there is that nobody need go out and vote for Clinton, because she can't lose: "Why bother Brothers? Have a joint instead"

Right on! :thumbs:

Mac77 · Oct 26, 2016

Taylor said:
I don't think you can say that this election is like the one in 1980, but then again this election really isn't like any election. It's that different.

The election is too important to let the lib polsters and pro hillary news media influence the outcome by demoralizing trump voters into staying home

Trump is our last chance to save the country from the total incompetence of the washington political establishment

yankintx · Oct 26, 2016

Mac77 said:
The election is too important to let the lib polsters and pro hillary news media influence the outcome by demoralizing trump voters into staying home

Trump is our last chance to save the country from the total incompetence of the washington political establishment

Our last chance? Hyperbole much?

yankintx · Oct 26, 2016

MickeyW said:
No one is saying that....

Nor all the millions that Clinton has, can buy her any class either. Hillary is a fraud....on the surface, she appears nice, underneath that facade....... is a gutter rat!

Correct. RR was being called every vile name that the liberals could muster! Kind of like today.
And he brought more class and respect to the office, than anyone before or since.

No one is saying there will be. I'm just hoping he can squeak by. Trump has more guts and chutzpah, then all the Republicans combined. The establishment Republicans are a bunch of gutless wonders. I'm sick of the lot of them!

So should Hillary!

Right on! :thumbs:

The only thing squeaking by will be the Donalds fart when he concedes to Madam Pres, and this nightmare the GOP calls a canidate can go back to what he does best, reality TV ho.