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NBC's 1980 Election Night Coverage: Shock, Dismay -- and Faulty Polling

Crovax said:
The latest ABC and USA today polls have Trump down 9, the RCP polling average is 5.1 and the weighted 538 average is 6

Even Trump losing by just 4.4 points is an optimistic view at this point
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It was 4.4 on RCP when I posted; looks like it's already changed twice since then because your number no longer matches, either. Suffice to say, there is no basis to claim that there will "probably" be a 9 point spread based on polling averages.
 
yankintx said:
Our last chance? Hyperbole much?
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Its not hyperbole if you care about the future of this country.

America wont disappear after 4-8 more years of liberal democrat rule but it will not be the great nation it once was
 
Mac77 said:
Its not hyperbole if you care about the future of this country.

America wont disappear after 4-8 more years of liberal democrat rule but it will not be the great nation it once was
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We are still a great country, we just let others with ulterior motives tell us otherwise.
 
yankintx said:
We are still a great country, we just let others with ulterior motives tell us otherwise.
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Yes we are a great country that is slipping little by little

The decline is so well hidden by the liberal news media that most Americans do not even realize how bad it really is
 
JumpinJack said:
Well, 1980 polling and 2016 polling are not comparable. We've come a long way, baby.

I remember that election, though. I voted for Reagan. I also knew that Reagan would win. All I had to do was watch the news. The economy was out of control, with double digit inflation. Complaints by citizens everywhere. Even Carter's own party had tried to dissuade him from running for a 2nd term.

So I don't know what went wrong with that polling. Everyone seemed to know that Carter wouldn't win, as I recall, although no one suspected a landslide by Reagan.

I just looked it up. Wikipedia says the last poll for that election was Reagan 47%, Carter 44%. So the poll had picked up Reagan's last minute surge from 39% to 47%. In the end, it was the economy. And a third party interloper, who took quite a few votes from Carter but none from Reagan.

Not a great comparison, though. The times were different, polls were very different (they're better, now), and Carter was an incumbent, the economy was horrible, Carter's own party didn't support him fully and he even had a party member try to oust him (Teddy Kennedy). So, very different, in my view.
But I understand how Trump supporters might want to view it as similar.
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The one thing that's for sure in this election is that nothing's for sure,and that's for damned sure!

:lol:
 
Taylor said:
That's not what they were saying in 1980.
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Ronald Reagan had more class and likeability in his left ring finger than Trump could ever hope to have. Trump is a disgrace and a hideous man. Reagan had dignity.
 
yankintx said:
I was a young un in 80, faint memories of my Dad groaning over RR landslide. Carter had class in defeat, the Don should take note.
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When the wicked witch is defeated by Trump, I expect to see something like this:

 
I've resigned myself from making predictions and wait for the 8th.
 
It ain't over until it's over.

And we won't honestly know until some time after the polls close on November 8.

But I do remember the coverage in 1980 and how confounded the coverage was--liberalism wasn't as prevalent in the media then but was becoming more strongly represented year by year as the flower children of the 60's moved into the anchor, producer, and director slots. The media was not behind Reagan and they really could not fully hide their dismay though they did try to maintain professionalism.

Fast forward to 1994 when Newt Gingrich and a large compliment of reformer minded Republicans managed to take majorities in the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. I still remember a sad faced Peter Jennings lamenting that we had just witnessed a national temper tantrum.

And now that there is little or no effort at any kind of objectivity, should Trump win in November, the coverage could be quite interesting.
 
shrubnose said:
The one thing that's for sure in this election is that nothing's for sure,and that's for damned sure!

:lol:
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And yet...you are the one who is always so sure of himself. "Just wait...you'll see."

Are you losing your confidence?
 
Mycroft said:
And yet...you are the one who is always so sure of himself. "Just wait...you'll see."

Are you losing your confidence?
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No,I'm sure that unless something that can't be foreseen happens Clinton will win the election by a good margin.We'll just have to wait and see how the Senate races turn out,but right now it looks pretty good for the Democrats.It appears to me that the GOP shot itself in the foot by making Trump it's candidate.Lots of others would have been better choices.
 
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shrubnose said:
No,I'm sure that unless something that can't be foreseen happens Clinton will win the election by a good margin.We'll just have to wait and see how the Senate races turn out,but right now it looks pretty good for the Democrats.It appears to me that the GOP shot itself in the foot by making Trump it's candidate.Lots of others would have been better choices.
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Oh...so now you are walking back from that previous statement. You know...this one:

The one thing that's for sure in this election is that nothing's for sure,and that's for damned sure!
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No problem. When I saw you post that I couldn't believe you really feel that way.
 
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