Clinton polls rising, but Democrat Senate candidates slipping

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Senate Update: Clinton Is Surging, But Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground | FiveThirtyEight

In recent elections, more and more voters have been choosing candidates from the same party for president and Senate. That trend appeared to be holding true this year too, even with Donald Trump, unusual as he is, on the ballot. So as Hillary Clinton jumped out to a bigger lead in the polls starting after the first presidential debate in late September, we might have expected Democratic Senate candidates to poll better as well. That hasn’t happened — the chance of Democrats controlling the Senate is only 54 percent in our polls-only model and 56 percent in our polls-plus model.

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They offer a couple possible explanations:

1 - There's a lag between a presidential candidates upswing and polls reflecting that for senate choices, this has happened before
2 - The one I think seems likely, that Americans sometimes will deliberately vote split ticket when they feel confident in predicting the president in an effort to balance things.

This doesn't bode well for the supreme court vacancy. Here's hoping we don't get stuck on 8 permanently.

We have many indications that the next President will be Hillary, and the next 115th Congress will likely stay Republican.

To add to your list...

3. Establishment Republicans have had far more success appealing to a given demographic in a given region or State to hold a House or Senate Seat, than appealing nationally for a single candidate for President. It explains well how the 112th to 114th Congresses played out against whom tried to run for President in both Romney and now Trump.

And you could be right about the Supreme Court vacancy. We have no indication at all that Hillary will go neutral to right leaning just to pass one by a Republican Congress, and we have *zero* indication that a Republican Congress will agree to anything Hillary for any subject for any reason.

Deuce said:

They offer a couple possible explanations:

1 - There's a lag between a presidential candidates upswing and polls reflecting that for senate choices, this has happened before
2 - The one I think seems likely, that Americans sometimes will deliberately vote split ticket when they feel confident in predicting the president in an effort to balance things.

This doesn't bode well for the supreme court vacancy. Here's hoping we don't get stuck on 8 permanently.

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It is #2.

OrphanSlug said:

We have many indications that the next President will be Hillary

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And what a human tragedy that will be.
Obama has brought the world to the brink of war, given billions to Iran which it is now using to target American ships....and Hillary will get us over the brink into full scale global war.
Thank a lefty. Hillary has said some things that indicate she will provoke all out war with Russia and China in her first term.
All while blowing our own border wide open and disarming great American citizens.

Go libbies!! <sarc>

Still, I do not trust the polls. The establishment will do anything, say anything, publish anything to protect the 1% wealth and power.

NoLeftNoRight said:

And what a human tragedy that will be.
Obama has brought the world to the brink of war, given billions to Iran which it is now using to target American ships....and Hillary will get us over the brink into full scale global war.
Thank a lefty. Hillary has said some things that indicate she will provoke all out war with Russia and China in her first term.
All while blowing our own border wide open and disarming great American citizens.

Go libbies!! <sarc>

Still, I do not trust the polls. The establishment will do anything, say anything, publish anything to protect the 1% wealth and power.

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The only reason I said that is we have very little polling to support the idea that Trump has a good path to 270.

No matter if Trump or Hillary wins, it is still a human tragedy. We have absolutely nothing to suggest that Hillary or Trump will be some massive game changer for this nation in terms of conflicts around the globe, internal divisiveness on a host of subjects, and our dealings with nations like Russia and China (and North Korea, and Afghanistan, and Pakistan, the list goes on.)

About the only thing we have to discuss from your post is Trump's rhetoric on Immigration and Hillary's rhetoric on the 2nd Amendment. That's it.

NoLeftNoRight said:

And what a human tragedy that will be.
Obama has brought the world to the brink of war, given billions to Iran which it is now using to target American ships....and Hillary will get us over the brink into full scale global war.
Thank a lefty. Hillary has said some things that indicate she will provoke all out war with Russia and China in her first term.
All while blowing our own border wide open and disarming great American citizens.

Go libbies!! <sarc>

Still, I do not trust the polls. The establishment will do anything, say anything, publish anything to protect the 1% wealth and power.

Click to expand...

When the lying liberal establishment reports an even race, they must be staining their underwear.

As far as polls, I only need to see the crowds that couldn't get in to see Trump. They outnumber those who make it inside to see the lying "I have a vagina" candidate.

Deuce said:

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Senate Update: Clinton Is Surging, But Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground | FiveThirtyEight



They offer a couple possible explanations:

1 - There's a lag between a presidential candidates upswing and polls reflecting that for senate choices, this has happened before
2 - The one I think seems likely, that Americans sometimes will deliberately vote split ticket when they feel confident in predicting the president in an effort to balance things.

This doesn't bode well for the supreme court vacancy. Here's hoping we don't get stuck on 8 permanently.

Click to expand...

Nobody in their right minds could want Clinton to have even an ounce more power than necessary to stop Trump.

OrphanSlug said:

The only reason I said that is we have very little polling to support the idea that Trump has a good path to 270.

No matter if Trump or Hillary wins, it is still a human tragedy. We have absolutely nothing to suggest that Hillary or Trump will be some massive game changer for this nation in terms of conflicts around the globe, internal divisiveness on a host of subjects, and our dealings with nations like Russia and China (and North Korea, and Afghanistan, and Pakistan, the list goes on.)

About the only thing we have to discuss from your post is Trump's rhetoric on Immigration and Hillary's rhetoric on the 2nd Amendment. That's it.

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Electoral College is as archaic as a horse-drawn buggy. Or voting on Tuesdays.

Human tragedy is the moron voters. Your reaction? Let's add convicts, lower the age and NEVER demand the proof of citizenship. ******* brilliant.

Conflicts around the globe: stay the hell away and sell as many weapons as they can buy. But you like playing the world cop, so deal with the consequences.

Internal divisiveness is natural when the workers have to feed the parasites.

Russia is not your enemy. It is made to look like it is because you like wars. Russia's military budget is 50 billion. Yours - 500 billion.

China was allowed by you to swallow your manufacturing and use your money to build a world-class military machine. Blame yourself.

North Korea received many concessions and goodies from you to stop their nuclear program. And then they showed you their Korean middle finger. Boo hoo.

You have no business being in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, so it was your choice to go there, get bogged down, spend trillions and die in large numbers with no end in sight.

Concise enough?

NoLeftNoRight said:

And what a human tragedy that will be.
Obama has brought the world to the brink of war, given billions to Iran which it is now using to target American ships....and Hillary will get us over the brink into full scale global war.
Thank a lefty. Hillary has said some things that indicate she will provoke all out war with Russia and China in her first term.
All while blowing our own border wide open and disarming great American citizens.
Go libbies!! <sarc>
Still, I do not trust the polls. The establishment will do anything, say anything, publish anything to protect the 1% wealth and power.

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Globalist Granny, if elected, and I’m not convinced she will be, will most assuredly raise your taxes. She will have to, paying for millions more illegals and potential muslim terrorists, is going to cost billions. She will appoint leftist judges to the federal judiciary, which will further erode our constitutional rights, First and Second Amendment suffering the worst hit. Christians will be persecuted. Globalist Granny’s IRS will declare war on conservatives. And gov’t corruption will be out of control. She’ll leave the White House a multi-billionaire. America will be crippled to the point that it will be unrecognizable from any other socialist sh*thole on the planet. We very well may be pushed to the brink of civil war.

NoLeftNoRight said:

And what a human tragedy that will be.
Obama has brought the world to the brink of war, given billions to Iran which it is now using to target American ships....and Hillary will get us over the brink into full scale global war.

Click to expand...

No, Obama hasn't done that. Why pretend otherwise?

Thank a lefty. Hillary has said some things that indicate she will provoke all out war with Russia and China in her first term.
All while blowing our own border wide open and disarming great American citizens.

Click to expand...

No, she hasn't done that. Why pretend otherwise?

Deuce said:

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Senate Update: Clinton Is Surging, But Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground | FiveThirtyEight



They offer a couple possible explanations:

1 - There's a lag between a presidential candidates upswing and polls reflecting that for senate choices, this has happened before
2 - The one I think seems likely, that Americans sometimes will deliberately vote split ticket when they feel confident in predicting the president in an effort to balance things.

This doesn't bode well for the supreme court vacancy. Here's hoping we don't get stuck on 8 permanently.

Click to expand...

I hate to seem placating on this, but I believe it's both of the items you mentioned - with heavier emphasis on #2.

DamnYankee said:

\And gov’t corruption will be out of control. She’ll leave the White House a multi-billionaire.

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With her current pattern of criminal behavior, she'll be damn lucky if she doesn't leave the White House a convicted felon.

But being in charge, she'll be able to to avoid that just as easily as she avoided being indicted for endangering national security. Appointing your own Attorney General and FBI Director does have it's advantages.

Roadvirus said:

With her current pattern of criminal behavior, she'll be damn lucky if she doesn't leave the White House a convicted felon.

But being in charge, she'll be able to to avoid that just as easily as she avoided being indicted for endangering national security. Appointing your own Attorney General and FBI Director does have it's advantages.

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Hillary, go pardon yourself!

Roadvirus said:

With her current pattern of criminal behavior, she'll be damn lucky if she doesn't leave the White House a convicted felon.

But being in charge, she'll be able to to avoid that just as easily as she avoided being indicted for endangering national security. Appointing your own Attorney General and FBI Director does have it's advantages.

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Leftists are fully behind gov't corruption, that you can bet one. The ends justify the means and all that jazz. I agree though. Globalist Granny, if elected, could very well leave the White House a multi-billionaire. She has no problem screwing the nation by selling it to the highest bidder, that we definitely know. Nice huh? Knowing Global Granny is more concerned with enriching herself and screwing the little guy to make her banker buds more powerful.